干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation

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DOI	10.1029/2018EF001130
	Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation
	Minoli, Sara 1,2,3,4; Mueller, Christoph 1,2; Elliott, Joshua 5,6; Ruane, Alex C.7; Jaegermeyr, Jonas 1,2,5,7; Zabel, Florian 8; Dury, Marie 9; Folberth, Christian 10; Francois, Louis 9; Hank, Tobias 8; Jacquemin, Ingrid 9; Liu, Wenfeng 11,12; Olin, Stefan 13; Pugh, Thomas A. M.14,15
通讯作者	Minoli, Sara
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
EISSN	2328-4277
出版年	2019
卷号	7 期号:12 页码:1464-1480
英文摘要	Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas.
英文关键词	temperature increase crop yield adaptation growing period irrigation crop model
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Germany ; USA ; Belgium ; Austria ; Switzerland ; France ; Sweden ; England
开放获取类型	Green Published, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000509028600015
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PLANT RESPIRATION ; GROWTH-MODEL ; HEAT-STRESS ; WHEAT YIELD ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; PRODUCTIVITY ; ACCLIMATION ; CO2
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
EI主题词	2019-12-01
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/311147
作者单位	1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Climate Resilience, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; 2.Leibniz Assoc, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; 3.Humboldt Univ, Integrat Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Syst, Berlin, Germany; 4.Humboldt Univ, Albrecht Daniel Thaer Inst Agrar & Gartenbauwisse, Berlin, Germany; 5.Univ Chicago, Dept Comp Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; 6.Univ Chicago, Ctr Robust Decis Making Climate & Energy Policy R, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; 7.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 8.Ludwig Maximilians Univ Munchen, Dept Geog, Munich, Germany; 9.Univ Liege, Unite Modelisat Climat & Cycles Biogeochim, UR SPHERES, Liege, Belgium; 10.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria; 11.Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Eawag, Dubendorf, Switzerland; 12.Univ Paris Saday, Lab Sci Climat & Environm LSCE IPSL, CEA, UVSQ,CNRS, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 13.Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden; 14.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England; 15.Univ Birmingham, Birmingham Inst Forest Res, Birmingham, W Midlands, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Minoli, Sara,Mueller, Christoph,Elliott, Joshua,et al. Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation[J],2019,7(12):1464-1480.
APA	Minoli, Sara.,Mueller, Christoph.,Elliott, Joshua.,Ruane, Alex C..,Jaegermeyr, Jonas.,...&Pugh, Thomas A. M..(2019).Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation.EARTHS FUTURE,7(12),1464-1480.
MLA	Minoli, Sara,et al."Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation".EARTHS FUTURE 7.12(2019):1464-1480.