干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics

Arid

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-4803-2019
	Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics
	Ahmed, Kamal 1,2; Sachindra, Dhanapala A.3; Shahid, Shamsuddin 1; Demirel, Mehmet C.4; Chung, Eun-Sung 5
通讯作者	Chung, Eun-Sung
来源期刊	HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN	1027-5606
EISSN	1607-7938
出版年	2019
卷号	23 期号:11 页码:4803-4824
英文摘要	The climate modelling community has trialled a large number of metrics for evaluating the temporal performance of general circulation models (GCMs), while very little attention has been given to the assessment of their spatial performance, which is equally important. This study evaluated the performance of 36 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in relation to their skills in simulating mean annual, monsoon, winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan using state-of-the-art spatial metrics, SPAtial EFficiency, fractions skill score, Goodman-Kruskal's lambda, Cramer's V, Mapcurves, and Kling-Gupta efficiency, for the period 1961-2005. The multi-model ensemble (MME) precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature data were generated through the intelligent merging of simulated precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature of selected GCMs employing random forest (RF) regression and simple mean (SM) techniques. The results indicated some differences in the ranks of GCMs for different spatial metrics. The overall ranks indicated NorESM1-M, MIROC5, BCC-CSM1-1, and ACCESS1-3 as the best GCMs in simulating the spatial patterns of mean annual, monsoon, winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan. MME precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature generated based on the best-performing GCMs showed more similarities with observed precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature compared to precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature simulated by individual GCMs. The MMEs developed using RF displayed better performance than the MMEs based on SM. Multiple spatial metrics have been used for the first time for selecting GCMs based on their capability to mimic the spatial patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature. The approach proposed in the present study can be extended to any number of GCMs and climate variables and applicable to any region for the suitable selection of an ensemble of GCMs to reduce uncertainties in climate projections.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Malaysia ; Pakistan ; Australia ; Turkey ; South Korea
开放获取类型	Green Submitted, Green Accepted, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000499709700002
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; CMIP5 MODELS ; SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; TEMPORAL-CHANGES ; CHANGE IMPACT ; ARID REGION ; RAINFALL ; UNCERTAINTY ; PAKISTAN
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Water Resources
EI主题词	2019-11-25
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/310982
作者单位	1.UTM, Fac Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia; 2.Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Fac Water Resource Management, Balochistan 90150, Pakistan; 3.Victoria Univ, Coll Engn & Sci, Inst Sustainabil & Innovat, POB 14428, Melbourne, Vic 8001, Australia; 4.Istanbul Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, TR-34469 Istanbul, Turkey; 5.Seoul Natl Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Seoul 01811, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ahmed, Kamal,Sachindra, Dhanapala A.,Shahid, Shamsuddin,et al. Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics[J],2019,23(11):4803-4824.
APA	Ahmed, Kamal,Sachindra, Dhanapala A.,Shahid, Shamsuddin,Demirel, Mehmet C.,&Chung, Eun-Sung.(2019).Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,23(11),4803-4824.
MLA	Ahmed, Kamal,et al."Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 23.11(2019):4803-4824.