干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa

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DOI	10.1029/2018JD029473
	Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa
	Soares, Pedro M. M.1; Careto, Joao A. M.1; Cardoso, Rita M.1; Goergen, Klaus 2,3; Trigo, Ricardo M.1,4
通讯作者	Soares, Pedro M. M.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
出版年	2019
卷号	124 期号:21 页码:11118-11142
英文摘要	Land-atmosphere coupling plays a crucial role in determining the evolution of weather and climate. In the current study, the full ensemble of CORDEX-Africa climate change simulations is used to understand how strong and weak coupling regions in Africa will evolve in the future. The ability of the regional climate models to capture the coupling signal relies on a reasonable representation of near surface air temperature, precipitation, surface fluxes, and soil moisture. A thorough model evaluation reveals typical shortcomings in the representation of the African climate, in particular seasonal precipitation. The multimodel ensemble mean outperforms the individual models and is therefore used for the investigation of the land-atmosphere coupling. This ensemble mean shows a widespread warming in Africa and changes in precipitation, such as a decrease in the Sahel during summer and an increase in western Africa during summer and autumn. The coupling analysis relies on surface fluxes, the related evaporative fraction and their correlations as well as the correlation between evaporative fraction and soil moisture. Overall, water-limited regions that exhibit a strong land-atmosphere coupling are projected to expand further southward in West Africa and further northward in southern Africa. This is particularly true over the Sahel during spring and summer, when the strong coupling region shifts southward, indicating a potential expansion of the semiarid and arid regions. A transition of energy limited regimes, with weak coupling, to water-limited regimes where soil moisture plays a more important role, is projected for the end of the 21st century as drying continues.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Portugal ; Germany ; Brazil
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000499270600007
WOS关键词	SEASONAL-VARIATION ; SURFACE RADIATION ; SATELLITE ; PRECIPITATION ; EVAPORATION ; PERFORMANCE ; REANALYSIS ; ENSEMBLE ; ASSIMILATION ; SIMULATIONS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
EI主题词	2019-11-16
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/310903
作者单位	1.Univ Lisbon, Inst Dom Luiz IDL, Fac Ciencias, Lisbon, Portugal; 2.Res Ctr Julich, Inst Bio & Geosci Agrosphere IBG 3, Julich, Germany; 3.Geoverbund ABC J, Ctr High Performance Sci Comp Terr Syst, Julich, Germany; 4.Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Meteorol, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Soares, Pedro M. M.,Careto, Joao A. M.,Cardoso, Rita M.,et al. Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa[J],2019,124(21):11118-11142.
APA	Soares, Pedro M. M.,Careto, Joao A. M.,Cardoso, Rita M.,Goergen, Klaus,&Trigo, Ricardo M..(2019).Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(21),11118-11142.
MLA	Soares, Pedro M. M.,et al."Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes in a Future Climate in Africa: From Model Evaluation to Projections Based on CORDEX-Africa".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.21(2019):11118-11142.