干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05014-6
	Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming
	Peng, Dongdong 1,2,3; Zhou, Tianjun 2,3,4; Zhang, Lixia 2,4; Zhang, Wenxia 2; Chen, Xiaolong 2
通讯作者	Zhou, Tianjun
来源期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
出版年	2020
卷号	54 期号:1-2 页码:543-560
英文摘要	Arid Central Asia is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. Information on potential future changes in extreme climate events in Central Asia is limited. In this study, the performances of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climatological extremes in Central Asia are first evaluated, and a bias correction method is employed to constrain future projections. The responses of extreme climate events over Central Asia to future warming and, in particular, the impact of 1.5 and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios are then assessed based on the observationally constrained projections. During the twenty-first century, coldest night (TNn), coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx), warmest day (TXx), 1-day maximum precipitation (RX1 day), 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5 day), and precipitation intensity (SDII) in Central Asia would robustly increase at best estimated rates of 1.93 degrees C, 1.71 degrees C, 1.18 degrees C, 1.25 degrees C, 6.30%, 5.71%, and 4.99% per degree of global warming, respectively, under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Compared with the 2 degrees C warming scenario, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C could reduce the intensification (relative to 1986-2005) of TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx, RX1 day, RX5 day, and SDII by 33%, 24%, 32%, 29%, 39%, 42%, and 53% from the best estimates under RCP8.5, respectively. The avoided intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn and TXx (RX1 day and SDII) would be larger (smaller) under RCP4.5. This suggests that a low warming target is necessary for avoiding the dangerous risk of extremes in this arid region.
英文关键词	1 5 and 2 degrees C Central Asia Extreme events
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000494426500001
WOS关键词	GRIDDED PRECIPITATION DATASET ; TEMPERATURE-CHANGES ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION ; SUMMER MONSOON ; CLOUD ENSEMBLE ; DENSE NETWORK ; ARID REGION ; CHINA ; CMIP5
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
EI主题词	2019-11-05
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/310762
作者单位	1.China Meteorol Adm, Inst Trop & Marine Meteorol, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Peng, Dongdong,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Lixia,et al. Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2020,54(1-2):543-560.
APA	Peng, Dongdong,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Lixia,Zhang, Wenxia,&Chen, Xiaolong.(2020).Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,54(1-2),543-560.
MLA	Peng, Dongdong,et al."Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 degrees C less global warming".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 54.1-2(2020):543-560.