干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The changing flowering phenology of Crinum lilies in arid and semi-arid regions: implications for phenological responses to climate change

Arid

DOI	10.2478/s11756-019-00329-5
	The changing flowering phenology of Crinum lilies in arid and semi-arid regions: implications for phenological responses to climate change
	Kwembeya, Ezekeil G.1; Pazvakawambwa, Lillian 2
通讯作者	Kwembeya, Ezekeil G.
来源期刊	BIOLOGIA
ISSN	0006-3088
EISSN	1336-9563
出版年	2019
卷号	74 期号:11 页码:1465-1474
英文摘要	Herbarium data have availed the much-needed long-term data that have constrained long-termand real-time phenological studies. Using herbarium specimens from the National Herbarium of Namibia, species, region, rainfall, latitude and longitude were regressed against the day of flowering to determine the effect of each variable on the day of flowering. This study used parameter estimates and the odds ratios from ordinal regression analysis to interpret the influence of the explanatory variables on the day of flowering. The results revealed that flowering dates of C. lugardiae have advanced by six days/decade during the period 1950 to 2010. Average summer rainfall decreased by approximately 3 mm per year from 1960 to 2015 in Namibia. Consequently, significant rainfall effects were recorded on the day of flowering for C. buphanoides, C. stuhlmannii subsp. delagoense and C. paludosum which have advanced by approximately 1 day/decade/mm, 1 day/decade/mm and 2 day/decade/mm during the period studied, respectively. Increase in latitude delayed day of flowering whilst an advancement of the day of flowering with an increase in longitude was observed. Substantial interaction effects among the explanatory variables were demonstrated. Combined effects of rainfall and latitude had a negative effect on the day of flowering whereas interaction effects of average summer rainfall and longitude had a positive combined effect on day of flowering. Our results, therefore, reveal the complex effects of rainfall and geographical location on flowering phenology of different Crinum species. The potential impacts of the phenological responses of different Crinum species on other organisms are discussed.
英文关键词	Climate change Crinum Herbarium Namibia Ordinal regression Phenology
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Namibia
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000503432200005
WOS关键词	PLANTS ; AMARYLLIDACEAE ; NUCLEAR
WOS类目	Biology
WOS研究方向	Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
EI主题词	2019-11-01
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/310482
作者单位	1.Univ Namibia, Dept Biol Sci, Windhoek, Namibia; 2.Univ Namibia, Dept Stat & Populat Studies, Windhoek, Namibia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kwembeya, Ezekeil G.,Pazvakawambwa, Lillian. The changing flowering phenology of Crinum lilies in arid and semi-arid regions: implications for phenological responses to climate change[J],2019,74(11):1465-1474.
APA	Kwembeya, Ezekeil G.,&Pazvakawambwa, Lillian.(2019).The changing flowering phenology of Crinum lilies in arid and semi-arid regions: implications for phenological responses to climate change.BIOLOGIA,74(11),1465-1474.
MLA	Kwembeya, Ezekeil G.,et al."The changing flowering phenology of Crinum lilies in arid and semi-arid regions: implications for phenological responses to climate change".BIOLOGIA 74.11(2019):1465-1474.