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DOI	10.1002/ps.5621
	The limitations of locust preventive management faced with spatial uncertainty: exploration with a multi-agent model
	Gay, Pierre-Emmanuel 1,2; Lecoq, Michel 1,2; Piou, Cyril 1,2
通讯作者	Piou, Cyril
来源期刊	PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
ISSN	1526-498X
EISSN	1526-4998
出版年	2020
卷号	76 期号:3 页码:1094-1102
英文摘要	BACKGROUND The spatial structure of locust outbreaks is a major aspect of preventive management that relies on where survey teams have to be sent if they are to react in time to any upsurge. The concentration of areas propitious to outbreaks has been documented for many species. Areas where preventive management fails to collect information because of insecurity or remoteness constitute other limits. We explored these conditions using a spatially explicit multi-agent model representing a preventive management system. We simulated areas where field teams had limited or no access and areas where the probability of initial outbreaks was concentrated in hotspots. RESULTS A strong effort by the budget holder to maintain funding over time might be cancelled out with 5% of a territory having limited access. The larger the area of no access, the worse the proportion of plague years. Multiple no access areas generated more plagues than only one no access area of an equivalent size because more fronts must be controlled. Concentrating outbreaks in hotspots increased the probability of plagues. One hotspot alone was easier to control than several same-sized hotspots. The period of the budget holder's cyclical behaviour between awareness and reduction in funding was longer with one hotspot than with several. CONCLUSION These results highlight the need to consider the spatial conditions and accessibility of locust species when planning the sustainability of management systems. Despite significant budgets to set in place a preventive management system, cyclical locust outbreaks may be related to these spatial conditions. (c) 2019 Society of Chemical Industry
英文关键词	multi-agent model spatial structuring preventive management uncertainty locusts
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	France
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000490961000001
WOS关键词	SOUTH-AMERICAN LOCUST ; DESERT LOCUST ; PEST-MANAGEMENT ; ORTHOPTERA ; ACRIDIDAE ; POPULATION ; PROTOCOL
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Entomology
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Entomology
EI主题词	2019-10-18
来源机构	French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/310312
作者单位	1.CIRAD, UMR, CBGP, F-34398 Montpellier, France; 2.Univ Montpellier, Montpellier SupAgro, IRD, CBGP,CIRAD,INRA, Montpellier, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gay, Pierre-Emmanuel,Lecoq, Michel,Piou, Cyril. The limitations of locust preventive management faced with spatial uncertainty: exploration with a multi-agent model[J]. French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development,2020,76(3):1094-1102.
APA	Gay, Pierre-Emmanuel,Lecoq, Michel,&Piou, Cyril.(2020).The limitations of locust preventive management faced with spatial uncertainty: exploration with a multi-agent model.PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE,76(3),1094-1102.
MLA	Gay, Pierre-Emmanuel,et al."The limitations of locust preventive management faced with spatial uncertainty: exploration with a multi-agent model".PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 76.3(2020):1094-1102.