干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder

Arid

DOI	10.1002/1438-390X.12010
	An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder
	Jansen, Dorine Y. M.1,2; Pradel, Roger 3; Mares, Rafael 4; Doutrelant, Claire 3,5; Spottiswoode, Claire N.5,6; Covas, Rita 4,5; Altwegg, Res 1,2,7
通讯作者	Altwegg, Res
来源期刊	POPULATION ECOLOGY
ISSN	1438-3896
EISSN	1438-390X
出版年	2019
卷号	61 期号:4 页码:406-420
英文摘要	Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events, which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during 1993-2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival. These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they are likely to have negative effects.
英文关键词	arid zone bird capture-mark-recapture demography environmental forcing integrated population model
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	South Africa ; France ; Portugal ; England
开放获取类型	Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000491428300005
WOS关键词	WEAVER PHILETAIRUS-SOCIUS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; REPRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT ; SOCIABLE WEAVERS ; SURVIVAL ; RAINFALL ; HELPERS ; RATES ; NEST ; ABUNDANCE
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
EI主题词	2019-10-01
来源机构	French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/310051
作者单位	1.Univ Cape Town, Dept Stat Sci, Ctr Stat Ecol Environm & Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa; 2.South African Natl Biodivers Inst, Appl Biodivers Res Div, Claremont, South Africa; 3.Univ Paul Valery Montpellier 3, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, CEFE,EPHE,IRD, Montpellier, France; 4.CIBIO, Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources, Vairao, Portugal; 5.Univ Cape Town, FitzPatrick Inst African Ornithol, DST NRF Ctr Excellence, Rondebosch, South Africa; 6.Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge, England; 7.Univ Cape Town, African Climate & Dev Initiat, Rondebosch, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jansen, Dorine Y. M.,Pradel, Roger,Mares, Rafael,et al. An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder[J]. French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development,2019,61(4):406-420.
APA	Jansen, Dorine Y. M..,Pradel, Roger.,Mares, Rafael.,Doutrelant, Claire.,Spottiswoode, Claire N..,...&Altwegg, Res.(2019).An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder.POPULATION ECOLOGY,61(4),406-420.
MLA	Jansen, Dorine Y. M.,et al."An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder".POPULATION ECOLOGY 61.4(2019):406-420.