Arid
DOI10.1016/j.procs.2017.11.239
Prediction of the future impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in Cyprus using artificial neural network
Abdullahi, Jazuli; Elkiran, Gozen
通讯作者Abdullahi, Jazuli
会议名称9th International Conference on Theory and Application of Soft Computing, Computing with Words and Perception (ICSCCW)
会议日期AUG 22-25, 2017
会议地点Budapest, HUNGARY
英文摘要

Evapotranspiration is considered as one of the fundamental and primary components of paramount significance to hydrological water cycle. But due to global warming, numerous regions especially arid and semi-arid regions are faced with insufficiency of water. Therefore, this research was aimed at forecasting the effect, climate change may have on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) for Girne and Larnaca regions of Cyprus for the next 3 decades (2017 - 2050). CROPWAT 8.0 software computed the past using Penman-Monteith method while Artificial Neural Network (ANN) predict for the future. A three-layer network trained by FFBP (Feed Forward Back Propagation) and LM (Levenberg-Marquardt) optimization algorithm was used. Two approaches were adopted for the study; in the first approach, the input parameters remained static while changing the number of hidden neurons; in the second approach, the inputs varied from 2 to 6 parameters and the hidden neurons doubled the inputs. Determination Coefficient (R-2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used as the criterion for performance evaluation of the network. The results disclosed that ANN can efficiently predict future ETo in the regions even with limited climate parameters, but the performance significantly increased by adding more inputs, as R-2 difference from 0.8959 -0.9997 and 0.8633-0.9996 in the regions were observed. (c) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.


英文关键词Feed forward backpropagation determination coefficient Penman-Monteith method artificial neural network evapotranspiration
来源出版物9TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THEORY AND APPLICATION OF SOFT COMPUTING, COMPUTING WITH WORDS AND PERCEPTION, ICSCCW 2017
ISSN1877-0509
出版年2017
卷号120
页码276-283
EISBN*****************
出版者ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
类型Proceedings Paper
语种英语
国家Turkey
收录类别CPCI-S
WOS记录号WOS:000426703300040
WOS类目Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Theory & Methods
WOS研究方向Computer Science
资源类型会议论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/306586
作者单位Near East Univ, Fac Engn, Near East Blvd,POB 99138,Mersin 10, Nicosia, North Cyprus, Turkey
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Abdullahi, Jazuli,Elkiran, Gozen. Prediction of the future impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in Cyprus using artificial neural network[C]:ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV,2017:276-283.
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