干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

Using the trajectory model NOAA HYSPLIT_4 for all days of the period 1986-2016 68000 direct 5-day trajectories of air parcels for starting at heights of 0.1 km and 1 km above control points in the arid region of the south of Russia are simulated. The fields of mean probability of air transport to the Moscow region from arid territories for start heights above the control points of 0.1 km and 1 km for all seasons and separately for the seasons for the period 1986-2016 of air particles transfer are calculated. Probabilities of air transfer to the Moscow region and other regions of Russia are estimated. Long-term series of average monthly probabilities of the air transport from arid lands at southern Russia to Moscow region, their trends and the nature of the interannual and seasonal variability of the transport probabilities at altitudes of 0.1 km and 1 km in 1986-2016 are analyzed. The average durations of air transport from arid regions of southern Russia to the Moscow region for different seasons at both start heights 0.1 and 1 km are estimated.