干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

At present, the desertification disaster is one of the most serious environmental problems in Xinjiang. In order to reduce the huge losses of desertification disaster to the economic development of Xinjiang, at the same time in order to stability and unity of the people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang, it is necessary to forecast the future trend of desertification changes. In this paper, taking Ruoqiang basin as an example, we establish desertification prediction model. First, use exponential smoothing model to carry on the numerical simulation for desertification land, the trend of desertification of land, non desertification land area in the area in 2000 -2011 years, Then, we examine forecasts by the MAPE, Desertification of land's MAPE value is 1.96%, have land desertification the land that having a trend of desertification's MAPE value is 7.13%, The predicted result achieves high accuracy prediction effect. Secondly, use exponential smoothing model to predict the land desertification, the desertification trend of land, non desertification land in 2012 - 2025 years, we again proved that exponential smoothing model has a huge advantage in the prediction of desertification trends. Finally draws the conclusion: the exponential smoothing model can predict the change trend of desertification land, having the trend of desertification land, non desertification land in the future. The research can provide a powerful reference and guidance for the prevention and control of desertification in the future, but also has theoretical meaning for desertification research in the future.