Arid
DOI10.1007/978-3-319-13000-2_5
Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Drought Characterization: Case of Eastern Arid Region, Kenya
Kisaka, M. Oscar1; Mucheru-Muna, M.1; Ngetich, F.2; Mugwe, J.2; Mugendi, D.3; Mairura, F.4
通讯作者Kisaka, M. Oscar
会议名称Conference on Transforming Rural Livelihoods in Africa - How Can Land and Water Management Contribute to Enhanced Food Security and Address Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
会议日期OCT 20-25, 2013
会议地点Nakuru, KENYA
英文摘要

Drier parts of Embu County, Eastern Kenya, endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity which have been attributed, in part, to prolonged dry-spells and erratic rainfall. Nonetheless, understanding spatial-temporal variability of rainfall especially at seasonal level, is an imperative facet to rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management (NRM). This study evaluated the extent of seasonal rainfall variability and the drought characteristics as the first step of combating declining agricultural productivity in the region. Cumulative Departure Index (CDI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and Coefficients-of-Variance (CV) and probabilistic statistics were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Analyses showed 90 % chance of below cropping-threshold rainfall (500 mm) exceeding 213.5 mm (Machanga) and 258.1 mm (Embu) during SRs for one year return-period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56 and 0.38) and in number of rainy-days (CV = 0.88 and 0.27) at Machang'a and Embu, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high even during April (peak) and November (CV = 0.42 and 0.48 and 0.76 and 0.43) with high probabilities (0.40 and 0.67) of droughts exceeding 15 days in Embu and Machang'a, respectively. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high (81 %) and (60 %) in Machang'a and Embu respectively. To optimize yield in the area, use of soil-water conservation and supplementary irrigation, crop selection and timely accurate rainfall forecasting should be prioritized.


英文关键词Cumulative-departure-index Drought-probability Rainfall-anomaly-index Rainfall-variability
来源出版物ADAPTING AFRICAN AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: TRANSFORMING RURAL LIVELIHOODS
ISSN1610-2010
出版年2015
页码53-71
ISBN978-3-319-12999-0
EISBN978-3-319-13000-2
出版者SPRINGER-VERLAG BERLIN
类型Proceedings Paper
语种英语
国家Kenya
收录类别CPCI-S ; CPCI-SSH
WOS记录号WOS:000380473000005
WOS关键词MAIZE YIELD ; CLIMATE ; AFRICA ; PREDICTION ; MANAGEMENT ; ETHIOPIA ; FARMERS ; ONSET ; SAHEL
WOS类目Agricultural Economics & Policy ; Agriculture, Multidisciplinary ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向Agriculture ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型会议论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/304360
作者单位1.Kenyatta Univ, Dept Environm Sci, POB 43844-00100, Nairobi, Kenya;
2.Kenyatta Univ, Dept Agr Resource Management, Nairobi, Kenya;
3.Embu Univ Coll, Embu, Kenya;
4.CIAT TSBF CIAT, Trop Soil Biol & Fertil Inst, Nairobi 00100, Kenya
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Kisaka, M. Oscar,Mucheru-Muna, M.,Ngetich, F.,et al. Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Drought Characterization: Case of Eastern Arid Region, Kenya[C]:SPRINGER-VERLAG BERLIN,2015:53-71.
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