Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/978-3-319-13000-2_5 |
Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Drought Characterization: Case of Eastern Arid Region, Kenya | |
Kisaka, M. Oscar1; Mucheru-Muna, M.1; Ngetich, F.2; Mugwe, J.2; Mugendi, D.3; Mairura, F.4 | |
通讯作者 | Kisaka, M. Oscar |
会议名称 | Conference on Transforming Rural Livelihoods in Africa - How Can Land and Water Management Contribute to Enhanced Food Security and Address Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation |
会议日期 | OCT 20-25, 2013 |
会议地点 | Nakuru, KENYA |
英文摘要 | Drier parts of Embu County, Eastern Kenya, endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity which have been attributed, in part, to prolonged dry-spells and erratic rainfall. Nonetheless, understanding spatial-temporal variability of rainfall especially at seasonal level, is an imperative facet to rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management (NRM). This study evaluated the extent of seasonal rainfall variability and the drought characteristics as the first step of combating declining agricultural productivity in the region. Cumulative Departure Index (CDI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and Coefficients-of-Variance (CV) and probabilistic statistics were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Analyses showed 90 % chance of below cropping-threshold rainfall (500 mm) exceeding 213.5 mm (Machanga) and 258.1 mm (Embu) during SRs for one year return-period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56 and 0.38) and in number of rainy-days (CV = 0.88 and 0.27) at Machang'a and Embu, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high even during April (peak) and November (CV = 0.42 and 0.48 and 0.76 and 0.43) with high probabilities (0.40 and 0.67) of droughts exceeding 15 days in Embu and Machang'a, respectively. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high (81 %) and (60 %) in Machang'a and Embu respectively. To optimize yield in the area, use of soil-water conservation and supplementary irrigation, crop selection and timely accurate rainfall forecasting should be prioritized. |
英文关键词 | Cumulative-departure-index Drought-probability Rainfall-anomaly-index Rainfall-variability |
来源出版物 | ADAPTING AFRICAN AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: TRANSFORMING RURAL LIVELIHOODS |
ISSN | 1610-2010 |
出版年 | 2015 |
页码 | 53-71 |
ISBN | 978-3-319-12999-0 |
EISBN | 978-3-319-13000-2 |
出版者 | SPRINGER-VERLAG BERLIN |
类型 | Proceedings Paper |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Kenya |
收录类别 | CPCI-S ; CPCI-SSH |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000380473000005 |
WOS关键词 | MAIZE YIELD ; CLIMATE ; AFRICA ; PREDICTION ; MANAGEMENT ; ETHIOPIA ; FARMERS ; ONSET ; SAHEL |
WOS类目 | Agricultural Economics & Policy ; Agriculture, Multidisciplinary ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 会议论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/304360 |
作者单位 | 1.Kenyatta Univ, Dept Environm Sci, POB 43844-00100, Nairobi, Kenya; 2.Kenyatta Univ, Dept Agr Resource Management, Nairobi, Kenya; 3.Embu Univ Coll, Embu, Kenya; 4.CIAT TSBF CIAT, Trop Soil Biol & Fertil Inst, Nairobi 00100, Kenya |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kisaka, M. Oscar,Mucheru-Muna, M.,Ngetich, F.,et al. Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Drought Characterization: Case of Eastern Arid Region, Kenya[C]:SPRINGER-VERLAG BERLIN,2015:53-71. |
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