Arid
Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor
Polo, M. J.1; Aguilar, C.1; Millares, A.2; Herrero, J.2; Gomez-Beas, R.1; Contreras, E.1; Losada, M. A.2
通讯作者Polo, M. J.
会议名称6TH IAHS-ICWRS International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management
会议日期JUN 04-06, 2014
会议地点Bologna, ITALY
英文摘要

Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78% in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38% when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.


英文关键词risk uncertainty call-effect water resource planning
来源出版物EVOLVING WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS: UNDERSTANDING, PREDICTING AND MANAGING WATER-SOCIETY INTERACTIONS
ISSN0144-7815
出版年2014
卷号364
页码285-291
ISBN978-1-907161-42-1
出版者INT ASSOC HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES
类型Proceedings Paper
语种英语
国家Spain
收录类别CPCI-S
WOS记录号WOS:000357968700048
WOS关键词SOCIO-HYDROLOGY ; SCALE ; MODEL
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型会议论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/303021
作者单位1.Univ Cordoba, Andalusian Inst Earth Syst Res, E-14071 Cordoba, Spain;
2.Univ Granada, Andalusian Inst Earth Syst Res, Granada 18006, Spain
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Polo, M. J.,Aguilar, C.,Millares, A.,et al. Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor[C]:INT ASSOC HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES,2014:285-291.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Polo, M. J.]的文章
[Aguilar, C.]的文章
[Millares, A.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Polo, M. J.]的文章
[Aguilar, C.]的文章
[Millares, A.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Polo, M. J.]的文章
[Aguilar, C.]的文章
[Millares, A.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。