Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor | |
Polo, M. J.1; Aguilar, C.1; Millares, A.2; Herrero, J.2; Gomez-Beas, R.1; Contreras, E.1; Losada, M. A.2 | |
通讯作者 | Polo, M. J. |
会议名称 | 6TH IAHS-ICWRS International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management |
会议日期 | JUN 04-06, 2014 |
会议地点 | Bologna, ITALY |
英文摘要 | Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78% in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38% when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment. |
英文关键词 | risk uncertainty call-effect water resource planning |
来源出版物 | EVOLVING WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS: UNDERSTANDING, PREDICTING AND MANAGING WATER-SOCIETY INTERACTIONS |
ISSN | 0144-7815 |
出版年 | 2014 |
卷号 | 364 |
页码 | 285-291 |
ISBN | 978-1-907161-42-1 |
出版者 | INT ASSOC HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES |
类型 | Proceedings Paper |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain |
收录类别 | CPCI-S |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000357968700048 |
WOS关键词 | SOCIO-HYDROLOGY ; SCALE ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources |
资源类型 | 会议论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/303021 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Cordoba, Andalusian Inst Earth Syst Res, E-14071 Cordoba, Spain; 2.Univ Granada, Andalusian Inst Earth Syst Res, Granada 18006, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Polo, M. J.,Aguilar, C.,Millares, A.,et al. Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor[C]:INT ASSOC HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES,2014:285-291. |
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