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This document explains and demonstrates which should be taken in Xinjiang mode of development in the current water shortage situation. Using scenario analysis method and IPAT model (Impact, Population, Affluence, Technolog), the article demonstrates seven possible development scenarios and analyzes each scenarios for the future use of water resources in oasis. By comparing and analysising, the scenario 4 (accelerated economic growth, adjusting the industrial structure, strengthen water-saving water consumption of the weak control) and the scenario 7 (accelerated economic growth, adjusting the industrial structure, strengthen water-saving water consumption of the strong control) can be the most executive mode. This document will play a positive guiding significance in the actual work of water resources in Xinjiang Oasis on some degree.