干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

Water resources system is a multi-feedback and multi-interface nonlinear complicated system, in this paper system dynamics(SD) model is established using Vensim-Ple of SD software, in which water resources system couples with society economy and eco-environment system. Fuzzy inference system(FIS) is embedded in SD model to analyze key model parameters uncertainty. Taking Minqin oasis for example to validate this method, we simulate the response of water resources supply and demand to society economy changes. According to key parameters uncertainty, FIS is feasible to solve uncertainty problem. The simulation result indicates that, in this special research basin, uncertainty of increasing rate of population is small compared with the rate of industry output value; and response of water resources to society economy is small compared with agriculture, but considering parameter uncertainty is essential; SD model embedded in FIS is a effective way to analyzing deeply and understanding model.