干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

Dryland regions occupy 41 percent of the earth's land surface. They occur on every continent, are occupied by over two billion people, and are-in many cases-experiencing a crisis. The combination of inherently fragile ecosystems and human population pressure can result in some environmental changes, such as soil erosion and rangeland and agricultural degradation, that are often easy to detect and measure. One of the most important issues in dealing with these changes and responses is to arrive at possible solutions that can result in ameliorative changes before the crises become irreversible. The addition of climate change exacerbates the situation for dryland landscapes, with predicted changes to hydrological regimes and vegetation composition and cover that would have serious implications for human populations. Under such conditions, environmental security can become threatened, which reinforces the desirability for dryland peoples to develop coping mechanisms and alternative lifestyles. The human response to these changes has been characterized ad "adapt, migrate, or die." We add a fourth human response, "revolt" to the possibilities. The technique of alternative futures analysis offers a strategy for modeling the environmental effects of human decisions regarding land use, which if made in a timely fashion, might prevent undesirable outcomes.

Alternative futures analyses can involve communities and policy makers in planning for viable economic and environmental strategies. Contextual concepts, examples, and a discussion of impacts are presented. We attempt to illustrate that environmental and human security are inextricable interlinked; that if we wish to protect human values, we must ensure environmental security and sustainability.