干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

Taking Tarim river basin as an example, by means of Arcgis8.5 and Geoda095i software platform, spatial databases, socioeconomic databases and resources and environment database are established. Spatial autocorrelation model, the gravity center model, and index system of regional central city are introduced to analyze spatial relations of regional economy, dynamic variation track of economic gravity centre and industrial gravity centre, and changes of regional central city. Evolution laws of spatial structure of oasis economy are probed from 1956 to 2005. Some conclusions can be drawn in recent 50 years: Firstly, spatial positive autocorrelation of regional economy is obvious, which shows a waving and rising feature. Secondly, economic gravity centre is moving from headstream to middle reaches along Tarim river, located in south side before 2000, north side after 2004, whose variation track follows linear rate law, and its expression is y=0.4887x+5E+06(R-2=0.963). Thirdly, regional economic centre is Hotan city before about 1980, Aksu city before about 1990, and Korla city after about 1990. Moreover, three stages are found oasis traditional agriculture, oasis agriculture and processing of agricultural products and oasis industry. Furthermore, influence and dependency degree of oasis economic development on resource and environment in different phase are studied.