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A so-called 'warm and wet transition' of climate has occurred in the arid part of northwestern China since the late 1980s. A result of this climatic transition is an increase in runoff in Xinjiang and neighboring, regions. In a warming and wetting change-of-climate scenario, we attempt to evaluate the impact of glacier meltwater and precipitation on the increase in outlet discharge (runoff) from Keqicar Baqi glacier, southwestern Tien Shan, China. In Our research we have applied a degree-day model which is one of the most widely used methods of ice- and snowmelt computations for a multitude of purposes such as hydrological modeling, ice-dynamic modeling and climate sensitivity studies. It is concluded that under the warming and wetting scenario, the primary supply for the runoff in this catchment is glacier meltwater, with precipitation being the dominant secondary source; 84% and 8% of total runoff, respectively.