干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

We predicted the future condition of places in which major cereals are cultivated using satellite remote sensing data in combination with spatial analysis as provided by Geographical Information System (GIS). The Open Policy and Economic Reform have significantly accelerated economic growth of mainly in coastal regions of China. Economic growth in China will change the diet and will increase cereal demand. As a case study, we predicted the trend of major cereal production in China in the 21st century. We also predicted the agricultural productivity of existing fields cropped with major cereals based on climatic indices, i.e., the net primary productivity (NPP) and the balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-PET), from the present to 2090s. The agricultural productivity in Central, Northern and Northeastern China will increase as a result of an increase in the NPP, while that in Southern China will not. The agricultural productivity in Western China will decline as a result of a decrease in P-PET. Desertification will be a problem in these regions. The result of this study suggests that combined analysis of satellite remote sensing and GIS data is effective for use in a comparative study of the present and the future conditions.