Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s004770000050 |
From GCM scales to hydrological scales: rainfall variability in West Africa | |
Lebel, T; Delclaux, F; Le Barbe, L; Polcher, J | |
通讯作者 | Lebel, T |
会议名称 | 13th Jacques Cartier Conference on Climate Variability - Seasonal Forecast for Optimal Management of Water Resources |
会议日期 | OCT 03-05, 2000 |
会议地点 | MONTREAL, CANADA |
英文摘要 | The variability of rainfall is a key component determining how the continental surfaces react to the atmospheric forcing. When studying the impact of climatic fluctuations onto the water resources, it is thus of paramount importance to evaluate to which extent the atmospheric models used in this kind of studies are able to reproduce the variability of the rain process, both in space and time. First among these are the general circulation models (GCM) with coarse resolution, which has two consequences: (i) a simplified parametrisation of convection; (ii) a scale of representation of rainfields which is not adequate when it comes to use them as inputs to hydrologic models. Since linking GCM's and regional hydrologic models is the corner stone of impact studies, it is necessary to analyse the consequences of this gap in scales and to find ways of bridging it. As a preliminary step in that direction, a comparative analysis of the observed and of the GCM rainfall variabilities is carried out for a tropical semi-arid zone of West Africa displaying a high sensitivity to climatic fluctuations. Over tropical regions the GCM used here (LMD-6) has a space resolution of 1.6 degrees in latitude and of 3.75 degrees in longitude. The comparative study shows that the errors of the GCM rainfall outputs may be traced down to two fundamental shortcomings: (i) a wrong seasonal cycle, probably linked to problems in representing the large scale circulation; (ii) an unrealistic simulation of the mesoscale convective systems that are responsible for 90% of the rainfall over this area. This latter problem is especially damaging from an hydrological point of view, as shown from a detailed analysis of high resolution rainfall observations. Even though it is possible to design rainfall desaggregation models producing realistic small scale rainfields from large scale rainfields, such models are of limited utility as long as atmospheric models are nor able to produce a realistic climatology in term of number and magnitude of convective systems. |
来源出版物 | STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT |
ISSN | 1436-3240 |
出版年 | 2000 |
卷号 | 14 |
期号 | 4-5 |
页码 | 275-295 |
出版者 | SPRINGER-VERLAG |
类型 | Article;Proceedings Paper |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
收录类别 | CPCI-S ; SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000089915100005 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; SST ; SAHEL ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources |
资源类型 | 会议论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/293238 |
作者单位 | (1)Lab Etud Transfers Hydrol & Environm, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France;(2)Hydro Sci Montpellier, Montpellier, France;(3)Meteorol Dynam Lab, Paris, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lebel, T,Delclaux, F,Le Barbe, L,et al. From GCM scales to hydrological scales: rainfall variability in West Africa[C]:SPRINGER-VERLAG,2000:275-295. |
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