Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 西北干旱半干旱区典型生态经济树种地理分布与气候适宜性研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Geographical distribution and climatic suitability of typical eco-economical tree species in arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China |
| 张晓芹 | |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 杜盛 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 论文中文摘要土地退化和沙漠化是西北干旱和半干旱区突出的环境问题。随着西部大开发的实施，该区脆弱的生态环境与经济的迅速发展使人地矛盾更加突出，以适应性良好的生态经济型树种造林成为缓解人地矛盾的理想选择。气候是宏观尺度上影响物种分布的决定性因子，其与物种分布的关系研究及时空变化对物种分布的影响预测越来越受到重视。在气候变化背景下，了解该区常见生态经济型树种的适宜区分布及其对气候变化的响应，有助于提高造林的成效。通过广泛收集西北干旱半干旱区常见树种的地理分布资料，选择了沙枣（Elaeagnus angustifolia）、小果白刺（Nitraria sibirica）、黑果枸杞（Lycium ruthenicum）、多枝柽柳（Tamarix ramosissima）、梭梭（Haloxylon ammodendron）、柠条锦鸡儿（Caragana korshinskii）、沙拐枣（Calligonum mongolicum）、胡杨（Populus euphratica）、乌柳（Salix cheilophila）和文冠果（Xanthoceras sorbifolia ）10个典型生态经济树种作为研究对象。基于81~209个来自标本馆、出版文献的物种分布记录和13个来自BIOCLIM、Holdridge生命地带模型和Kria指数的气候因子，通过物种分布模型（MaxEnt）与地理信息系统工具结合，模拟了10个树种当前（1950?2000年）气候情景下的潜在适宜分布区，分析了生境适宜性与气候因子的关系，并预测了未来2070s（2060?2080年）四种温室气体排放浓度情景（RCPs）下不同树种适宜区的变化。主要结论如下：（1）沙枣、小果白刺和多枝柽柳的潜在适宜区面积最大，跨越了干旱区、半干旱区、半湿润区和有明显干旱季节的湿润区。黑果枸杞、梭梭、沙拐枣和胡杨主要局限于西北干旱区，文冠果、乌柳和柠条锦鸡儿主要集中于半干旱区和半湿润区。（2）湿润指数是影响大多数树种（6/10）适宜性的最重要因子，其对沙拐枣、梭梭和胡杨的贡献率均超过50%，然而对柠条锦鸡儿和乌柳则不足5%。最湿月降水量、年均降水量、寒冷指数也是较为重要的因子，其中最湿月降水量对黑果枸杞的影响最大，年均降水量对文冠果的影响最大。（3）热量相关气候因子对沙枣和柠条锦鸡儿的分布起较为重要的作用，水文相关气候因子对其它树种的分布起更为重要的作用。多数树种生境适宜性对水文相关因子的响应曲线呈正偏态分布，对热量相关因子的响应曲线多呈高斯分布。（4）不同气候变化情景对适宜区的影响有所差异。沙枣在高浓度排放情景（RCP8.5）下将获益最大，其适宜区净增加率高达57.5%。柠条锦鸡儿在低浓度排放情景（RCP2.6）下受气候变化的不利影响最大，其适宜区消失率高达61.4%。多数树种的当前适宜区在低浓度排放情景下缩减，而在高浓度排放情景下扩张，并且随着温室气体排放浓度的增加，缩减趋势逐渐减弱，扩张趋势逐渐增强。（5）适宜分布区的不同区域受气候变化的影响不同。所有树种当前气候适宜区的东部边缘将会收缩，不同树种收缩的幅度不同。在西北干旱区分布的树种，将在塔里木盆地、吐鲁番盆地及河西走廊的北部获得新增适宜区。（6）不同气候情景下适宜区范围的质心迁移方向和距离不一致。多数树种适宜区范围的地理质心向西移动，移动速度约每十年4~53km。多数树种适宜区范围的海拔质心略微向低处移动，移动速度约每十年1~22m，多枝柽柳和乌柳例外，在四种情景下分别以每十年约3~10m和13~58m的速度向更高的区域移动。本研究的结果表明利用MaxEnt模拟的各树种的潜在适宜范围与调查的分布现状基本一致。不同树种在不同气候变化情景下的变化不同，多数树种当前的适宜区是稳定的，未来可以增加西北干旱区本地树种的造林面积。本研究结果有助于理解西北干旱半干旱区植物种分布与气候的关系，同时能够为管理者制定适应气候变化的造林措施时提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要 | Land degradation and desertification are severe environmental problems in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China. With the implement of western development, the fragile ecological environment and the rapid development of economy have generated more prominent contradictions between human and land, and afforestation using eco-economical species becomes an ideal choice to ease the contradiction. Climate is the decisive factor affecting species distribution on macro-scale. The relationship between suitability and climate factors, and the impact of climatic spatial and temporal changes on species distribution have attracted increasing attention. Under the background of climate change, understanding the distribution of common eco-economical species and their responses to climate change will contribute to the improvement of afforestation in the arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China.Having widely collected the data on the geographical distribution of common tree species in arid and semi-arid areas in northwest China, a total of 10 tree species (they were Elaeagnus angustifolia, Nitraria sibirica, Lycium ruthenicum, Tamarix ramosissima, Haloxylon ammodendron, Caragana korshinskii, Calligonum mongolicum, Populus euphratica, Salix cheilophila and Xanthoceras sorbifolia) used in this study were selected for their more complete information. Based on 81~209 species-distribution records from herbaria and published literature, and 13 climate factors from BIOCLIM, Holdridge life zone, and Kria index, combined with GIS, we simulated the potential suitable distribution areas of the 10 species in the present climate scenarios (1950-2000), determined the dominant climate factors that affected the distribution of each species, analyzed the relationship between the suitability and the climate factors, and predicted the future 2070s changes (2060-2080) of suitable areas of each species under the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases (GHGs). We obtained the following main results:(1) The potentially suitable distribution areas of E. angustifolia, N. sibirica, and T. ramosissima are the largest, which span the arid, semi-arid, and semi-humid regions and humid regions with obvious dry seasons. The potential suitable distribution areas of L. ruthenicum, H. ammodendron, C. mongolicum, and P. euphratica are mostly confined to arid and deep arid areas in northwest China, while those of X. sorbifolia, S. cheilophila, and C. korshinskii are mostly concentrated in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions of northwest and northern China.(2) Humidity index (HI) is the most important factor affecting the suitability of most species, with the contribution rate of 56.1%, 53.1%, and 52.3% for C. mongolicum, H. ammodendron, and P. euphratica, respectively, while only 4.7% and 1.0% for C. korshinskii and H. rhamnoide, respectively. Precipitation of wettest month (PWM), annual precipitation (AP), coldness index are important factors as well, among which, the effect of PWM is most significant on L. ruthenicum, while the effect of AP is most significant on X. sorbifolia.(3) Thermal-related climate factors play important roles in affecting the distribution of E. angustifolia and C. korshinskii, while for other species, hydrology-related climate factors play more important roles. Species habitat suitability curves in response to hydrology-related factors deviate from normal distribution in right for most species, and only a few negative linear correlations were observed. And those curves in response to thermal-related factors mostly followed Gaussian distribution or negative skew distribution.(4) The responses to climate change scenarios are different with species. E.s angustifolia is expected to benefit most from high GHGs emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), with a net increase of 57.5% for its suitable area. The shrink of suitable area of C. korshinskii is expected to be up to 61.4% under low GHGs emission scenarios (RCP 2.6), indicating that the adverse effects of climate changes were larger on C. korshinskii than other species. For almost all species, current suitable areas are expected to shrink under low emission scenarios, while would expand under higher emission scenarios. In addition, with the increase of GHGs emission rates, the shrink tendencies of current suitable areas would change weaker, while the expansion trend will be stronger. (5) Different regions of the suitable areas of each species are differently affected by climate changes. The eastern edges of current suitable areas of all species are expected to shrink toward west under the effects of future climate changes. The shrink of the suitable area of Elaeagnus angustifolia is expected to be weaker than the expansion, and the areas of shrink would be equal to the areas of expansion for N. sibirica, while for other species, the areas of shrink would be obviously greater compared to expansion. The tree species which currently have considerably large suitable areas in the deep arid regions of northwest China, would own new suitable areas in Tarim basin, Turpan basin and the northern part of the Hexi corridor.(6) The centers of suitable ranges under different climate scenarios are predicted to move different distances and toward different directions. For most species, the geographical centers of suitable ranges are predicted to move west or southwest or northwest at the speed of 4 ~ 53 km per decade. Most altitudinal centers of suitable ranges are predicted to lower to different degrees at the speed of 1 ~ 22 m per decade, except for T. ramosissima and H. rhamnoides, whose suitable altitudinal centers are predicted to migrate upward at the speed of 3 ~ 10 m per decade and 13 ~ 58 m per decade, respectively.The results in the present study indicate that using MaxEnt our simulation of potential suitable ranges of each species are consistent with the investigation data. The response to climate changes are different between tree species due to variable distribution areas and climate scenarios. For most species, the current suitable areas are stable. In the future, afforestation area of local tree species in arid regions of Northwest China can be increased. This study contributes to better understand the relationship between the distribution of species in the northwest arid/semi-arid regions and climate, and can provide reference for managers to develop afforestation measures to adapt to climate change. |
| 中文关键词 | 物种分布模型 ; MaxEnt ; 潜在分布区 ; 气候适宜区 ; 气候变化 |
| 英文关键词 | species distribution model MaxEnt potential distribution area climatically suitable areas climate change |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 生态学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/288119 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 张晓芹. 西北干旱半干旱区典型生态经济树种地理分布与气候适宜性研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2018. |
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