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| 过去65年中国极端旱涝事件的时空特征研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Study on the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Drought and Flood Events over China during the Past 65 Years |
| 梁亚妮 | |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 郝志新 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 揭示极端旱涝事件的发生规律和特征是全球变化背景下气象和气候科学研究中的重点和热点。极端旱涝事件的发生对农业、人民生活以及社会经济发展具有极大的危害性和破坏性，因而探讨极端旱涝事件的时空特征与分布规律可为重大自然灾害风险评估提供科学基础依据。本文以中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的1951-2015年中国564个观测站点气象观测日值数据集为基础，建立了具有区域差异的干湿季极端旱涝事件检测标准；辨识了1951-2015年全国极端旱涝事件，分析了主要极端旱涝事件的发生频率，识别了极端旱涝事件高发区；在此基础上，揭示了过去65年全国极端旱涝事件的时空分布特征。所得主要结果如下：（1）中国湿季开始日期由南向北逐渐推迟，呈纬向分布特征；湿季的结束日期由东北至青藏高原附近的带状区域分别向东南和西北2个方向推迟；除北疆外，全国湿季持续时间整体呈“东长西短、南长北短”的空间分布特征。年连续无雨日在干季由东南向西北增加；在湿季由西南和东北地区分别向东南、西北方向增加。年连续有雨日在干、湿季的空间分布特征基本一致，均由西北向东、向南增加。（2）不同长度连续无雨日（CDD）的发生频率在湿季呈现由西北向东部递减的分布特征；干季，连续无雨日发生频率最高区域始终出现在干旱区。。CDD发生频率小于5%时，干、湿季始终存在一条由东北向西南延伸的干旱趋势带。干季，CDD高值区位于干旱区，高达200天，CDD低值区出现在长江中下游，为40-50天；湿季，CDD高值区位于我国西部，达130-170天，CDD低值区出现在东北、西南及附近地区，为20-30天。（3）干、湿季，不同长度连续有雨日（CWD）的发生频率和发生频率小于5%的连续有雨日，在全国普遍呈现“南高北低”的分布特征。干季， CWD高值区位于四川，为12天，低值区位于东北，为5天；湿季，CWD高值区位于云南西南部，约17-20天，CWD低值区位于我国北方地区，约6-9天。（4）全国范围，干、湿季发生的极端干旱事件在1960s、1970s、1990s、2000s居多；干季发生的极端雨涝事件在1960s、1980s居多；湿季发生的极端雨涝事件主要集中在1960s、1970s、1990s。2010年以来，东北和西南地区的极端旱涝事件相对频繁。 |
| 英文摘要 | Revealing the occurrence regularity and characteristics of extreme drought and flood events have always been the focus and hotspot in the research of meteorology and climate science under the background of global change. Their great harmfulness and destructiveness for agricultural production, people's livelihood and socioeconomic development, so that the study on spatial-temporal characteristics of the extreme drought and flood events could provide scientific basis for risk assessment of natural disasters. Based on meteorological observation data sets for 1951-2015 from 564 stations, provided by National meteorological information center of China meteorological administration, we have established an examination standard, with the consideration of regional differences, and identified the extreme drought and flood events for 1951-2015 on a national scale. Then we analyzed the frequency and high incidence area of extreme drought and flood events, on the basis of that, revealed their spatial-temporal distribution characteristics over the past 65 years throughout China. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The starting dates of wet season are gradually postponed from south to north with zonal distribution over China, and the ending dates are gradually postponed from the band beween northeast and tibet plateau to both directions of northwest and southeast. Except for northern Xinjiang, the spatial distribution of wet season duration of China presents in the east and south regions is longer than that in the west and north regions. Annul consecutive dry days have increased from southeast to northwest during the dry season, while during the wet season, they all increased southeastward and northwestward from northeast and southwest regions. The spatial distribution of annul consecutive wet days during the dry season and wet season are basically the same, both showing the increase trend from northwest to southeast.(2) During the wet season, the frequency of consecutive dry days (CDD) at different length is characterized by progressively decreasing from northwest to south over the whole country. During the dry season, high frequency of CDD always exists in arid region. When CDD is less than 5%, both in dry and wet season, there are always existing drought trends belt extending from northeast to southwest. During dry season, the high values of CDD, up to 200 days, distribute in arid region, and the low values of CDD (for 40-50 days) appear in the Mid-low Reaches of Yangtze River. During wet season, the high values of CDD (up to 130-170 days) appear in western areas, and the low values (for 20-30 days) appear in northeast, southwest and nearby areas. (3) Both in dry and wet season, the spatial distribution of frequency of consecutive dry days (CWD) at different length is characterized by high values in south and low values in north, and the same distribution characteristics applies to frequency of CWD that less than 5%. During dry season, high values of CWD appear in Sichuan province (for12 days), and the low values of CWD locate in Northeast China (for 5 days). During wet season, high values of CWD appear in southwestern Yunnan province (for17-20 days), and the low values of CWD locate in North China (for 6-9 days).(4) Nationally, during dry and wet season, extreme drought events mainly occurred in 1960s, 1970s, 1990s and 2000s. During dry season, extreme flood events mainly occurred in 1960s and 1980s. During wet season, extreme flood events mainly occurred in1960s, 1970s and 1990s. Based on the above analysis, we found that, since 2010, extreme drought and flood events more frequently occurred in northeast and southwest China. |
| 中文关键词 | 极端旱涝事件 ; 连续有雨日 ; 连续无雨日 ; 时空变化 |
| 英文关键词 | extreme drought and flood events consecutive dry days consecutive wet days temporal and spatial change |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 气象学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/288087 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 梁亚妮. 过去65年中国极端旱涝事件的时空特征研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2018. |
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