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| 耕地空间格局变化对粮食生产的影响 | |
| 其他题名 | The Impact of Cropland Spatial Pattern Change on Grain Production |
| 李圆圆 | |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 李秀彬 ; 谈明洪 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 随着人口与人均食物需求的增长，粮食安全问题始终是人们关注的热点。耕地是食物生产的基础，因此耕地利用的变化备受关注，在先前的研究中，许多学者分析了耕地数量的变化对粮食生产的影响。当前，在全球化的背景下，耕地空间格局变化显著。然而农业相对于其他产业而言，对于自然资源禀赋的要求更高，耕地的空间位置发生变化之后，新增耕地和损失耕地之间很难保持农业生产条件一致，因而会对粮食生产造成一定影响。目前，分析耕地空间格局变化对粮食生产影响的研究还相对不足。 本研究以欧洲太空局的全球土地覆被数据和中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心的中国土地覆被数据为基础，探究了20世纪90年代以来全球和中国的耕地空间格局变化。在全球尺度上，根据联合国粮食和农业组织的农业统计数据计算以国家为单位的多年平均粮食单产，以此作为各国粮食生产力的代表值。在中国尺度上，基于县级农业统计数据计算出来每个县多年的平均单产，在此基础上借助土壤有机质数据对县内部的单产水平进行调整，得到一个空间分辨率为1公里的耕地单产数据集，以此作为每个格网内耕地粮食生产力的代表值。本文从不同空间尺度上定量地评估近几十年来耕地空间格局变化对粮食生产的影响。研究结果表明： （1）过去几十年来，全球和中国的耕地面积都呈现出先增加后减少的变化趋势，前期变化程度较为剧烈，后期则相对缓和。全球尺度上，南美洲亚马孙雨林边缘、中亚地区欧亚大草原边缘以及非洲撒哈拉沙漠边缘的耕地扩张剧烈，欧洲和东亚地区耕地明显减少；中国尺度上，东北和西北地区的耕地面积增长显著。 （2）从全球、大洲、中国、中国内部农产品主产区四个空间尺度来看，耕地空间格局的变化大多会带来平均粮食生产力的下降。其中，全球平均粮食生产力由于耕地空间格局的变化在1992到2015年间下降了1.04%，中国则在1990到2010年间下降了1.99%。 （3）在中国尺度上，要补充全国范围内1公顷被建设用地占用的耕地，就需要在新疆地区补充1.57公顷，在东北平原补充2.02公顷，或者在内蒙古东部地区补充3.63公顷才能保证总的产能平衡。 |
| 英文摘要 | Along with increases in population and demand for food per capita over recent decades, food security has always been the hot topic globally. Cropland is the basis of food production, so that its change have aroused widespread attention all over the world. Many researchers have analysed the impact of cropland change on grain production. Under the circumstance of globalization, the phenomenon of cropland spatial pattern change was evident. However, compared to other industries, agriculture has a more strict restriction of natural resources. During the process of cropland spatial change, the location of cropland changed, but the agricultural conditions between new and loss cropland hardly maintained consistent, which led to a gap of cropland productivity. Currently, the analysis about the impact of cropland spatial pattern change on cropland productivity is still relatively insufficient. Utilizing the latest land-use data product provided by the European Space Agency (ESA) and Resources and Environment Data Center of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Research, Chinese Academy of Science, this research analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of cropland at different scale since 1990s. Besides that, with the agricultural statictics data of different countries from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), yield per unit area of each country was calculated to represent the cropland productivity at global scale. In China, based on agricultural statistics data at county level, the average yield per unit area of different counties were calculated. With the help of soil organic matter data (SOM), the yield per unit area was adjusted inside the counties. Finally, a constant crop yield dataset of China at pixel level with a resolution of 1 km was developed to represent the cropland productivity. The purpose of the research is to quantitatively evaluate the impact of cropland spatial shift on cropland productivity at different scale during the recent decades. The results show: (1) During the past decades, the global area of cropland increased rapidly in the early stage and decreased smoothly later. The similar trend was also observed in China. At global scale, hotspot areas of global cropland gains mainly concentrated around the edge of the Amazon forest, the Eurasian Steppe and the Sahara Desert. Hotspot areas of global cropland loss were distributed in Europe and East Asia. In China, substantial land was converted to cropland in Northeastern and Northwestern region. (2) In most cases, the spatial pattern change of cropland resulted in a fall in average cropland productivity at global, contintent, country and agricultural region scale. The global average cropland productivity decreased by 1.04% during 1992 to 2015 and the average cropland productivity decreased by 1.99% between 1990 and 2010 in China. (3) In China, the loss of 1 ha of cultivated land converted to built-up area would, to achieve equivalency, need to be compensated by 1.54 ha of new land in Xinjiang, or 2.02 ha in Northeastern Plain, or 3.63 ha in Eastern part of Inner Mongolia. |
| 中文关键词 | 耕地 ; 空间格局 ; 粮食生产 ; 全球 ; 中国 |
| 英文关键词 | Cropland Spatial pattern Grain production Global China |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/288081 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 李圆圆. 耕地空间格局变化对粮食生产的影响[D]. 中国科学院大学,2018. |
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