Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 黑河中游绿洲农业种植结构变化与用水效率研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Agricultural Structure Changes and the Impacts on Water Use Efficiency of Oasis in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River |
| 李鹏辉 | |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 吕昌河 ; 辛良杰 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 位于黑河中游的张掖绿洲人口和GDP均占到全流域的80%以上，是重要的粮食生产区和种子繁育基地，有“金张掖”的美称。张掖绿洲农业的生产基本依赖灌溉水资源，灌溉水资源消费量占黑河流域农业总消费量的96%，进而导致黑河下游生态用水不足，造成生态环境恶化，黑河中游农业用水和下游生态需水之间矛盾突出。本研究探究了黑河中游绿洲不同农作物的用水效率，并结合农业结构情景模拟，为黑河中游绿洲农业结构调整和农业节水提供一定的参考。本研究主要研究内容包括：（1）黑河中游绿洲土地利用/覆被变化。利用遥感数据，分析黑河中游绿洲土地利用/覆被的时空变化特征。（2）黑河中游绿洲农业种植结构变化与模拟。结合遥感数据和统计数据，分析黑河中游绿洲农作物种植结构现状和时空变化特征。并利用CLUE-S模型探究黑河未来不同情景下的农业结构。（3）黑河中游绿洲农作物用水效率时空变化。利用联合国粮农组织开发的CROPWAT模型和ArcGIS，探究不同农作物用水效率特征，并结合黑河中游绿洲农业种植结构模拟情况，分析不同情景下的黑河中游绿洲农作物用水效率时空分布。主要结论如下：（1）2011年至2015年黑河中游绿洲面积增长了2.44%，呈现弱增长态势。（2）当前黑河中游绿洲主要农作物为大麦、小麦、玉米和油菜，其中甘州区、临泽县以及高台县和山丹县以及民乐县的农业结构具有明显差异。近20年来，黑河中游绿洲农作物种植结构变化主要特征为小麦转变为制种玉米。其中甘州区、临泽县和高台县农业种植结构变化趋势相同：制种玉米种植比例上升，小麦种植比例下降，而普通玉米种植比例变化不大；民乐县和山丹县农业种植结构变化趋势相同：小麦种植比例相对稳定，大麦种植比例下降，薯类种植比例上升。（3）对CLUE-S模型模拟结果检验发现，Kappa系数为0.72，实地验证准确率61.21%，说明模拟结果和真实结果比较，具有较高的一致性，可以应用在不同情景下的农业结构模拟。（4）基于参数校验后的CROPWAT模型，对黑河中游绿洲农作物蒸散量与灌溉需水量进行模拟显示：玉米生长期灌溉需水量最高，其次为大麦和小麦，第四为油菜，最后为马铃薯。因玉米和马铃薯单位质量所含能量较高，其用水效率最高，其次为小麦和大麦，油菜用水效率最低。黑河中游绿洲农作物用水效率总体上呈现西北高、东南低的空间分布特征。（5）结合农业种植结构情景模拟和农作物用水效率核算，政府规划情景下农作物单位面积用水效率最高，其次为自然增长情景，生态保护情景农作物单位面积用水效率最低。主要原因是政府规划情景下农作物用水效率较高的作物（玉米和马铃薯）种植比例较高。基于研究结果，本研究对黑河中游绿洲的农业结构调整和农业节水提出如下几点思考：（1）CLUE-S模型情景模拟结果显示，黑河中游绿洲未来大麦和小麦种植面积将进一步缩小，但玉米种植面积扩大。因玉米生长期灌溉需水量较高，玉米种植面积不宜过分扩大，需要根据总供水量和生态需水量进行总体调节和布局。（2）马铃薯需水量较低，而用水效率较高，从提高用水效率和节水的角度出发，可以适当扩大马铃薯的种植面积。（3）三种情景模拟结果均显示，黑河中游绿洲平原区高用水效率区作物种植的占比将增长，而山区低用水效率区占比减少。为了进一步提高区域用水效率，山区（民乐县和山丹县）可以考虑扩大马铃薯种植。 |
| 英文摘要 | The population and GDP of zhangye oasis in the middle reaches of the Heihe river account for more than 80% of the whole basin. Zhangye is an important grain production area and seed breeding base, and has the reputation of "golden zhangye". The agricultural production of zhangye oasis is basically dependent on irrigation water resources, and irrigation water consumption accounts for 96% of the total consumption of Heihe river basin. It’s agriculture production consumes a large amount of water resources, leading to the lack of ecological water supply in the lower reaches of Heihe, and resulting in the deterioration of ecological environment. The contradiction between agricultural water and downstream ecological water demand is prominent. This study explores the water use efficiency of different crops in the middle reaches of the Heihe river, and combines with the scenario simulation of agricultural structure, to provide some suggestions for agricultural structure adjustment and agricultural water saving in Zhangye Oasis.The main contents of this study include: (1) Land use / cover change of oasis in the middle reaches of Heihe river. Based on remote sensing data and statistical data, the land use / cover change in the middle reaches of Heihe is analyzed. (2) Change and Simulation of agricultural structure in the middle reaches of Heihe river. Combined with remote sensing data and statistical data, temporal and spatial change characteristics of crop planting structure is analyzed. The CLUE-S model is used to explore the agricultural structure in different scenarios of in the future. (3) The temporal and spatial change of the water use efficiency of the crops in the oasis of the middle reaches of Heihe river. Combined with the simulation of agricultural structure in the middle reaches of the Heihe River, this study explores the characteristics of different crops' water use efficiency by using the CROPWAT model and ArcGIS and analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution of crop water use efficiency under different scenarios in the middle reaches of Heihe river. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2011 to 2015, the area of the oasis in the middle reaches of the Heihe river increased by 2.44%, showing a weak growth trend.(2) At present, the main crops in the middle reaches of the Heihe river are barley, wheat, corn and rape. Statistics show that agricultural structure of Ganzhou district, Linze county, Gaotai county and Shandan county, Minle county has obvious difference. In the past 20 years, the main change of crop planting structure in the middle reaches of the Heihe river is the transformation of wheat into seed corn. The main types of crop in Ganzhou district, Linze county and Gaotai county and Shandan county include common corn, seed corn and wheat. In Shandan county and Minle county crop types are mainly wheat, potato, rape and barley. (3)The CLUE-S model can be used to simulate the agricultural structure of Zhangye city. The Kappa coefficient is 0.72, and the accuracy of the field verification is 61.21%. The results show that the simulation results are highly consistent with the real results and can be applied to the simulation of agricultural structures under different scenarios. (4)The CROPWAT model is able to simulate the amount of crops evanation and irrigation water demand in the middle reaches of the Heihe river. The results showed that the irrigation water demand of corn was the highest in the growing period, followed by barley and wheat, fourth for rape and finally for potatoes. Due to higher energy content per unit of quality, water use efficiency of corn and potato are the highest , followed by wheat and barley, and the water use efficiency of rape is the lowest. The efficiency of water use in the middle reaches of the Heihe river is generally higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast.(5)Combination of agricultural structure simulation and crop water use efficiency of accounting, government planning scenario crop water use efficiency per unit area is the highest, followed by natural growth scenario, and the ecological protection of crop water use efficiency per unit area is small. The main reason is that the proportion of crops with higher water use efficiency (corn and potato) under the government planning scenario is higher.Based on the research results, this study puts forward the following thoughts on agricultural structure adjustment and agricultural water-saving in Zhangye area:(1)The results of the CLUE-S model show that the area of barley and wheat planted in Zhangye has been further reduced, and the planting area of corn has been expanded. Compared with barley and wheat, corn has a higher water demand. The expansion of corn acreage needs to be adjusted according to the total water supply.(2)The water ues efficiency of potato is high, and ir has low irrigation water demand. From the perspective of improving water efficiency and water conservation, potato planting can be expanded appropriately.(3)The results of the three scenarios showed that the proportion of high water use efficiency areas in the plains of the middle reaches of the Heihe river increases, while the proportion of low water use efficiency areas in the mountains decreases. In order to increase the efficiency of water use, the mountainous regions (Minle County and Shandan County) may consider expanding potato cultivation. |
| 中文关键词 | 黑河中游 ; 农业结构 ; 用水效率 ; CLUE-S模型 ; CROPWAT模型 |
| 英文关键词 | Middle reaches of the Heihe river agricultural structure water use efficiency CLUE - S model CROPWAT model |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/288075 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 李鹏辉. 黑河中游绿洲农业种植结构变化与用水效率研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2018. |
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