Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 南疆地区就业情境模拟与政策优化研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Situation Simulation and Policy Optimize of Employment System in South Xinjiang |
| 张文彪 | |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 杨德刚 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 就业问题首先受到人口劳动力和和产业发展的直接影响，在生态脆弱地区，产业发展又受到区域资源环境约束的直接限制。除上述直接影响之外，资源环境禀赋如农业条件等尚对人口劳动力发展有着间接影响。本研究在之前研究成果的基础上，将资源环境约束纳入就业约束条件，通过资源环境约束、人口与劳动力、产业发展与就业相互关系中的直接关系，建立典型生态脆弱地区的区域就业理论模型，因而具有更为普遍的指导意义。本文首先通过投入产出等方法计算绿洲水、土地、矿产资源的经济承载能力，给出绿洲产业发展的约束条件。进而通过投入产出、指数回归、结构分析等方法，分析区域资源环境约束下农业及二三产业的合理结构及劳动力需求研究，得出绿洲农业可容纳的劳动力，并对区域劳务输出进行预测研究。在此基础上建立系统动力学模型，对未来不同发展水平预期不同产业政策情境下区域就业状况进行了仿真预测。本文主要有如下主要结论。在二三产业增长率分别为8%和7%的低速增长预期下，失业人数将出现先增长后下降的趋势，到2025年下降为160.35万人,水资源利用率将会上升到72.1%。在二三产业发展速度保持在11%和11.2%的高速发展预期下，失业总人口将持续下降到93.36万人。水资源利用率将上升到73.3%。如果在现有农业灌溉水平下将水资源利用率保持在70%以内，农业就业将会下降，到2025年总失业人口将有169.48万人。全面推广节水增地的政策条件下，将可增加耕地面积1364.11万亩，失业人口则下降到4.98万人。如果通过补贴在南疆发展劳动密集型产业，在通过节水开垦耕地情境下，则每年需要财政补贴2.49亿-4.98亿元之间，如果不考虑新开垦耕地，则需要每年财政补贴总额将达到84.74-169.48亿元之间。在对南疆地区就业进行全面分析的基础上，提出以下建议：1.全面推广绿洲节水农业，优化农业就业；2.适度补贴，更加精准的支持劳动密集型产业发展；3.发展地区间劳务输出，促进区域间就业平衡；4.加强计划生育工作，控制人口增长速度。本研究在数据来源、方法选择等方面依然存在许多不足之处，对南疆地区分区域，分产业、分政策情境下的就业情况细化分析，可作为未来进一步研究的方向。 |
| 英文摘要 | Employment problem is primarily forced by labor and development of industries. Industrial development is also limited directly by natural resources and environment in ecologically fragile areas. natural resources and environment such as agricultural condition also effluents regional population and labor. On the basis of present researches,this research reduced natural resources and environment as the limit one of factor of employment , built a regional employment model in ecologically fragile areas through direct relations among natural resources and environment, labor, development of industries. Thus it has more common guiding significance.This paper measured economic carrying capacity of typical region of South Xinjiang, and gave out limit factors of oasis industrial development. Reasonable structure and labor demand of industry under resources and environmental limitation were analyzed and population of labors could be employed was predicted through methods such as input-output model, exponential regression, structural analysis and so on. Quantity of emigrant labor was also predicted. Employment situation under varied resource-environment conditions,population and labor policies, agricultural structure, industrial policies and labor emigrate models by system dynamic models. On the basis of typical regional analysis, total employment situation of South Xinjiang were predicted. Main conclusions are as below.At the lower expected industrial growth rate where secondary and tertiary industrial growth rate is 8% and 7%, the unemployment would be inverse U curve，and goes down to 1.60 million by 2025, while water exploitation rate would reach 72.1%. If growth rate of secondary and tertiary industry is 11.2% and 11%, the unemployment would keep go down to 0.93million,and water exploitation rate get to 73.3%. If keep water exploitation rate below 70%, On present level of water use, agricultural employment would be reduced, and the total unemployment would go up to 1.69 million. If water-saving irrigation is completely covered, the arable land could be enlarged and make total employment lower to 0.05 million, in that case the employment problem would be almost solved. If solve unemployment problem through developing labor intensive industry by subsidy and other policies, the subsidy demand would be 249-498 million per year. If solve employment problem by developing labor intensive industries without enlarging arable land, the subsidy would go as high as 8.47-16.95 billion per year.Several suggestions were given on the basis of overall analysis of employment problem in South Xinjiang. 1.Enlarge arable land extending water-saving technology in the whole area. 2.Support the development of labor intensive industries more accurately through reasonable subsidy. 3. Raise the flow of labor among areas. 4.Control the population growth by comprehensively strengthening birth-planning work. This research still has some disadvantage in data quality and method choosing, and subdivided employment research on different industries and different policy situations would be done, which could be studied as the direction of further research. |
| 中文关键词 | 农业剩余劳动力 ; 就业政策 ; 资源环境约束 ; 系统动力学 ; 南疆 |
| 英文关键词 | surplus labor resource-environment limit employ policy system dynamics |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 人文地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/288053 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 张文彪. 南疆地区就业情境模拟与政策优化研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2018. |
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