Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 气候变化背景下青藏高原湖泊面积变化及机制研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Lakes dynamics and its relationship to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau during 1960~2014 |
| 董斯扬 | |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 王涛 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 随着近年全球变暖程度的不断加剧，地球系统和人类生活正在经历着重大的改变。作为全球冰冻圈的一个重要组成部分，广泛分布着冰川和冻土的青藏高原，对气候变化的响应较其他地区更为敏感。首先，本文选取了青藏高原面上79个国家标准气象台站的月值观测数据，对包括年平均气温、降水量、估算的最大可能蒸散、干燥度指数、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、风速及日照时数等在内的气象要素，对其在1960~2016时段的年值序列和各个单季的年值序列及其累积距平序列进行分析，认识了在过去近60年中，青藏高原主要气象要素的变化趋势和阶段性变化特征；同时，收集了青藏高原周边地区162个国家标准气象台站的器测数据，与高原面上79个气象站数据一起，通过Anusplin插值方法在整个青藏高原地区进行气象要素的空间插值，对气温、降水、估算的最大可能蒸散和干燥度指数的空间变化趋势进行分析；其次，以Landsat遥感数据和纸制地形图为信息源，综合利用遥感和GIS技术，对遥感影像进行人工目视解译，提取湖泊面积信息，并融合他人研究成果，最终获得1960年、1975年、1990年、2000年、2005年、2010年和2014年，280个青藏高原地区面积大于10平方千米的湖泊面积数据，并按照流域、气候区、面积规模、海拔梯度、距离冰川远近、所处区域冻土类型对其进行分类，针对每一类型的湖泊在各个研究时段分别计算湖泊扩张指数，初步获取了1960~2014年间青藏高原湖泊面积变化趋势和特征；然后，利用面板数据回归模型，对各类别湖泊在各研究时段内，其面积变化情况与相应湖区主要气象要素值的变化情况进行回归分析，初步了解了气温、降水、最大可能蒸散、冰川、冻土等要素对青藏高原湖泊面积变化的影响特征；对于土壤水分和植被NDVI变化对湖泊面积变化的影响，通过建立湖泊缓冲区的方法，简单分析了湖泊面积变化与湖泊缓冲区土壤水分变化及NDVI变化的相关性；最后，对研究所采用的数据和方法进行了不确定性分析，对结果和结论进行评价。本文的主要结论有以下几点： （1）在气候变化方面：在1960~2016年间，青藏高原地区年平均、最高和最低气温显著上升，且在冬季升温幅度最大；高海拔地区增温更为显著；降水量变化在时间上总体波动较大，变化不显著，在空间上存在明显的南北反向变化特征，夏秋两季降水变化不显著，冬春两季降水量显著增加，夏季降水的变化情况决定了青藏高原年降水的变化趋势；估算的最大可能蒸散无论是全年还是单季，其变化均不显著；干燥度指数变化总体不显著，其变化情况受降水的影响更大；相对湿度变化总体不显著，夏秋季显著降低，冬春季变化不显著；风速显著降低，没有出现明显的季节差异，高海拔地区风速降低更为显著，日照时数的变化可能会影响风速变化；日照时数显著降低，低海拔地区降低更为明显，风速和相对湿度的变化都可能会对日照时数变化产生影响；在1960~2016时段，大致以1998年为界，青藏高原总体气候特征发生明显转变，由相对冷干转为相对暖湿。（2）在湖泊面积变化方面：青藏高原面上，面积大于10?km2的湖泊有280个，其中内陆湖泊251个，总面积38 255.71 km2；绝大多数湖泊分布在羌塘高原水系区；近80 %的湖泊位于半干旱区，没有湖泊分布于湿润区；大多数湖泊为面积小于100 km2的小型湖泊；海拔上主要集中在4?500~5?000?m范围内；所选取的280个湖泊中，到流域内冰川的最短距离从3.40 km到223.38 km不等；52.9 %的湖泊位于多年连续冻土区内，40.7 %的湖泊位于季节冻土区内。近60年来，青藏高原湖泊总体上呈现扩张趋势，特别是在2000~2010年间，但是近年来湖泊扩张趋势减缓，总体上比较平稳。在空间分布上，高原中部的湖泊扩张最为显著，高原南部和东部偏边缘地区的湖泊萎缩明显。（3）在湖泊面积变化机制方面：总体上，气温与降水变化对湖泊面积产生显著的正向影响，最大可能蒸散对高原内陆湖泊面积变化有显著负向影响；气温和降水对青藏高原湖泊面积变化的影响要远大于最大可能蒸散的影响。在流域尺度上，通过研究部分典型湖泊对气候变化的响应特征可以在一定程度上代表区域整体上湖泊对于气候变化的响应；降水在水分限制区域对湖泊面积变化所产生的影响尤其显著；青藏高原小型湖泊对气候变化的响应更为敏感；在高海拔地区，冰川融水是补给湖泊的一项重要水源，使得湖泊面积对于气温的响应更为敏感；增温所导致的冰川融水量的增加，对湖泊面积变化产生的影响，随着湖泊与冰川距离的增加而逐渐减弱，降水对湖泊面积变化的影响逐渐增加；随着冻土的退化过程不断发展，湖泊会呈现出先扩张，继而萎缩的变化趋势。土壤水与植被状况的变化是区域生态环境和水循环系统变化的指征之一，可以在一定程度上反映湖泊面积变化趋势。 |
| 英文摘要 | With the increasing degree of global warming trend in recent years, the earth systems and human life are undergoing significant changes. As an important part of the global cryosphere, the responses of alpine ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to climate change are more sensitive than other regions, due to the widely distributed glaciers and permafrost. In this disertation, firstly, the observed meteorological data from 79 standard meteorological stations distributed in the Tibetan Plateau and 162 standard meteorological stations on the surrounding area during the period of 1960~2016 were used to analyze the sequences of temperature (T), precipitation (P), reference evapotranspiration (ETo), aridity index (IA), the maximum temperature (Tmax), the minimum temperature (Tmin), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U10) and the hours of sunshine (n), and their accumulated anomalies in recent 60 years, as well as the interpolated values across the whole Tibetan Plateau of each climatic factor. Secondly, based on RS and GIS technology, Landsat images including MSS in 1970s, TM in 1990 and 2000, ETM in 2010, and topographic maps during 1972~1974 were used for getting lake surface area data by visual interpretation method. Through the integration of achievements from other researches, the lake surface area data series of 280 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1960~2014 were obtained. 280 TP lakes were classified into different groups according to the characteristics of basins, climate zones, lake sizes, elevation, the distance to glaciers and the frozen ground types. The changes of lakes in different groups were analyzed, during the period 1960~2014. Thirdly, based on panel regression model analyses, the relationships among lake area changes and climatic factors changes in recent 60 years were analyzed. Meanwhile, the influences of soil moisture and NDVI on lake surface area were also analyzed through correlation analysis. Finally, the uncertainties of data usage and analysis methods were discussed. The mainly conclusions of this research are as follows:(1) Research results about climate change show that, during the period 1960~2016, T increased significantly, and the T in winter and high elevation area increased more significant. P fluctuated significantly and the annual change rate was not obvious; the P changes were different in the northern and southern Tibetan Plateau; P changes in summer and autum were not significant, while P changes in winter and spring were increased significant; the change of summer precipitation determines the change tendency of the annual precipitation of the Tibetan Plateau. The changes of ETo, whether annual or seasonal, were not significant. The changes of IA was not significant, which was more greatly influenced by precipitation. The changes of Tmax and Tmin were both increased significantly, especially in winter. The annual changes of RH was not obvious; RH changes were decreased significantly in summer and autumn. Wind speed decreased significantly, especially in high elevation area; the changes of n would have some influences on U10 changes. The changes of sunshine hours were decreased significantly, especially in low elevation area; the changes of wind speed and relative humidity would both have influences on n changes. In the period of 1960~2016, the climate on the Tibetan Plateau had developed from cold-drought to warm-humid since 1998. (2) There are 280 lakes with area above 10?km2 in the Tibetan Plateau. Most of these lakes were located in Chiangtang Catchment. About 80 % lakes distributed in semi-arid region. Most of them are small lakes with an area less than 100?km2. Seen from the spatial distribution, most of these lakes are located in Chiangtang Plateau. Seen from the altitude distribution, most of these lakes are concentrated in the areas with the elevation of 4?500~5?000?m. The distances between lakes and glaciers ranges from 3.40 km to 223.38 km. More than 50 % lakes located in permafrost regions.In recent 60 years, lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were generally expanded, especially during the period 2000~2010. The increasing trend was slow down in recent years. Considering to the regional differences, lakes in central TP expanded most significant, while lakes in eastern and souther TP shrank notably. (3) Temperature and precipitation have siginificant positive influences on lake area changes, while reference evapotranspiration have significant negative influences on inland lakes across the whole Tibetan Plateau. The influences of temperature and precipitation were more great than reference evapotranspiration.The overall response of all the lakes to climate change could be obtained by examining several typical lakes in the catchment level. The change in lake surface area is more related to the change in P, especially in extremely arid and arid climate zones. Elevation and size affected the sensitivity of lakes to climate change with lakes in a high elevation area more sensitive to T and small lakes more sensitive to climatic factors. Warming induced glacier’s retreat led to the significant lake expansion, while permafrost degradation might be responsible for the lake shrinkage in the seasonally frozen ground area due to the related cryogenic waterproof layer downward. The changes of soil moisture and vegetation condition were indications of regional ecological environment and water cycle system changes, which may reflect regional lake changes to some extent. |
| 中文关键词 | 青藏高原 ; 气候变化 ; 湖泊面积变化 ; Anusplin插值 ; 面板数据回归 |
| 英文关键词 | the Tibetan Plateau climate change lakes area change Anusplin interpolation panel regression model |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/288048 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 董斯扬. 气候变化背景下青藏高原湖泊面积变化及机制研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2018. |
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