Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 冰川变化条件下黑河干流中游地区缺水风险研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Study on Water Shortage Risk in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River Based on Supply and Demand Under the Condition of Glacier Change |
| 陈虹举 | |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 王卷乐 ; 周国民 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 水资源是中国西部干旱区社会经济发展与国家级顶层战略“陆上丝绸之路经济带”建设的瓶颈，而冰川水资源变化，尤其是未来变化是干旱区社会经济可持续发展的最大可变因素和重要影响因素。论文基于GIS技术工具，运用参照对比方法，在宏观层面研究了中国西部冰川变化对气候变化的响应程度，揭示了其空间变化规律，在此基础上，依据研究结果，选取冰川变化对气候变化响应程度较高、研究基础较好的黑河流干流中游地区为本文案例研究区，详细分析了过去与未来黑河干流出山径流量的变化特征，并依据中游地区各行业供需水量及其变化，运用概率分布法，预估了在冰川变化条件下该地区在不同RCPs情景下的缺水风险，揭示了缺水风险发生的可能性与风险程度。1.冰川变化对气候变化的响应程度中国冰川变化对气候变化的响应方式与程度不同，对夏季平均气温变化表现为正响应，而对年降水量变化主要表现为负响应，升温是中国西部冰川快速退缩的主导性因素。就整体而言，冰川变化对夏季平均气温变化的响应程度相对较低，但局部地区冰川变化对温度变化高度敏感，响应程度高与极高。不同类型冰川的变化对夏季平均气温变化的响应程度亦不同，海洋型冰川的变化以中高度响应为主，极大陆型冰川的变化主要呈现极低、低响应程度，而大陆型冰川变化的响应程度呈两级化。2. 黑河干流出山径流的未来变化 RCPs情景下，未来（2013～2100）黑河干流年出山径流量将呈增加态势，但不显著，月最大（7～8月）出山径流量大幅度减少。相较于历史时期（1960～2013），枯水年的发生概率将增加2-3倍，偏枯水年在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下的发生概率亦将变大。未来黑河干流可能进入平水年，甚至枯水年。未来冰川融水对黑河径流的补给与调节作用均将降低。3.黑河干流中游地区供、需水量变化在“九七”分水方案下，无论RCPs何种情景下，黑河干流中游地区所分的水量基本保持在6.4亿m3，枯水、丰水年份主要影响正义峡的下泄量。以2010年为基准，未来20年黑河干流中游地区地下水量不增加、增加10%和20%。估算未来供水总量结果表明：1）整体而言，地下水开采量的增加对整个区域未来水资源供给量增加有决定性作用。2）未来无论地下水开采量不增加、增加10%和20%情况下，RCP2.6情景下未来总供水量的变化波动比较小，RCP8.5情景下波动最大。总体来说RCP2.6情景下，供水比较稳定。近二十年，黑河干流用水量增长了2亿m3，农业用水量增加了1.89亿m3，农业用水量的增长是本区域用水量增长的主要原因。 未来20年黑河干流中游地区需水量将增加2.37亿m3，有效灌溉面积增加是总需水量增加的主要原因。提高渠系水利用系数可降低研究区需水量增长速度。以2014年为基准，若渠系水利用系数增加10%，区域需水增长最快，增加3.2亿m3；若渠系水利用系数增加20%，则需水量增加0.9亿m3。未来仅提高渠系水利用系数不能够抵消其他因素变化引起的需水量增加。4.黑河干流中游地区缺水风险预估在RCP2.6情景下，黑河干流中游地区未来发生缺水的可能性最小，而RCP8.5情景下发生缺水风险的程度最大，因缺水而导致的农业损失亦最高。有效灌溉面积增加将显著增加农业缺水风险，提高渠系水利用系数与增加地下水开采量，将减少农业缺水风险，降低农业损失。 |
| 英文摘要 | Water resources is the bottleneck of the construction of the social economic development of the arid area of western China and the national top-level strategy "on the land of the Silk Road economic belt", while the glacier water resources change, especially the future change is the largest variable in the sustainable development of the Social economy Factors and important influencing factors. Based on the GIS technology, this paper uses the reference contrast method to study the response degree of the glacier changes in western China to the climate change, and reveals its spatial variation. On this basis, according to the research results, This paper analyzes the characteristics of the runoff of the Heihe River in the past and the future, and analyzes the variation of the runoff and water flow in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, The risk of water scarcity in different RCPs scenarios under the conditions of glacier changes is estimated, revealing the possibility and risk of shortage of water 1.The degree of response of glacier changes to climate change China's glacier changes in response to climate change and the degree of different, the average summer temperature changes in the performance of a positive response, while the annual precipitation changes mainly for the negative response, glacier distribution area increased annual precipitation increased glacier accumulation To offset the increase in temperature due to the increase in the amount of ablation, warming in China is the main factor in the rapid decline of glaciers in western China. On the whole, glacier changes are relatively low in response to changes in summer mean temperature, but the change of glacier in some areas is highly sensitive to temperature change, and the response is high and high. The changes of different types of glaciers have different degrees of response to the change of summer average temperature. The change of marine glaciers is mainly high and medium, and the change of continental glaciers mainly shows very low and low response, while the response of continental glaciers The degree of two-level.2. Mainstream runoff variation of Heihe river basin On the mainstream runoff in the mountain area will increase in the future(2013~2100), and the distribution will become more concentrate. But The shape of runoff will greatly reduced on 7-8 month. Compared with the historical period (1960 ~ 2013) the probability of low flow years occurred will be increased by 2 to 3 times. the occurrence probability of Partial dry year will be smaller only under the RCP8.5 situation, and in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario the probability will be bigger. the occurrence probability of Wet year and partial wet year in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario will be smaller. Future in Heihe river’s mainstream will be enter normal year, even dry year. In different RCPs scenario, The glacier melt water runoff regulation of Heihe river basin will be much lower than historical period. Only in RCP2.6 scenario, dry season, the glacier melt water runoff regulation of Heihe river basin close to historical period. No matter what RCP situation is, water required on Heihe river middle reaches area keep in the 1.89×108 m3, dry and wet year impact on drainage volumeis larger in Zhenyi gorge.3. Variation of supply and demand for water in the middle reaches of Heihe River Under the "1997" water diversion scheme, regardless of the RCPs, the amount of water in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Mainstream remained at 640 million m3. The year of dry water and flood year mainly affected the discharge capacity of the justice gorge. Based on 2010, the amount of groundwater in the middle reaches of the Heihe River in the next 20 years will not increase by 10% and 20%. Estimates of future water supply results indicate that: 1) overall, the increase in groundwater production has a decisive effect on the future increase in water supply to the region as a whole. 2) In the future, the fluctuation of the total water supply in the RCP2.6 scenario is relatively small, and the fluctuation of the RCP8.5 scenario is the largest in the RCP2.6 scenario, regardless of the increase in the amount of groundwater exploitation and the increase of 10% and 20%. Overall, RCP2.6 scenario, the water supply is relatively stable.In the past two decades, the amount of water used in the mainstream of the Heihe River has increased by 200 million m3 and agricultural water consumption has increased by 189 million m3. The increase in agricultural water use is the main reason for the increase in water consumption in the region. Water demand in the middle reaches of the Heihe River in the next 20 years will increase by 237 million m3, and the increase in effective irrigation area is the main reason for the increase in total water demand. Increasing the utilization coefficient of canal water can reduce the rate of water demand growth in the study area. According to 2014, if the canal water utilization coefficient is increased by 10%, the regional water demand is the fastest and the increase is 320 million m3. If the canal water utilization coefficient is increased by 20%, the water demand will increase by 0.9 million m3. The future only improve the canal water utilization coefficient can not offset the other factors caused by changes in water demand.4. Risk Estimation of Water Shortage in Middle Reaches of Heihe River In the case of RCP2.6, the possibility of water scarcity in the middle reaches of the Heihe River is the smallest, while the risk of water scarcity is greatest in RCP8.5, and the loss of agriculture due to water shortages is also the highest. Increasing effective irrigation area will significantly increase the risk of agricultural water shortage, improve the water use coefficient of canal and increase the amount of groundwater exploitation, will reduce the risk of agricultural water shortage and reduce agricultural losses. |
| 中文关键词 | 冰川变化 ; GIS工具 ; 供需关系 ; 概率分布 ; 缺水风险 |
| 英文关键词 | Glacier changes GIS tools supply and demand probability distribution water risk Heihe middle reaches |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287970 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 陈虹举. 冰川变化条件下黑河干流中游地区缺水风险研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2017. |
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