Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 不同气候情景下疏勒河流域水资源承载力研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Research on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the Shule River Basin under the Different Climate Change Scenarios |
| 杨春利 | |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 王宁练 ; 杨梅学 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 摘要气候变化是全球变化研究的重要组成部分，它对降水、蒸发、径流等水文循环要素会造成直接影响，引起水资源在时间和空间上重新分配以及水资源总量显著改变，从而对人类社会经济发展中水资源开发利用以及规划和管理等众多环节产生不利影响，并关系到区域社会、经济与生态环境的健康、协调、可持续发展。我国西北干旱和半干旱地区，冰雪融水作为地表水的重要组成部分始终为人们所关注。也正是由于这些冰雪融水对干旱区内陆河流的补给，才使得我国深居内陆腹地的干旱区形成了许多人类赖以生存的绿洲。因此，冰雪融水是这些绿洲景观及其相关的水文、生态系统稳定和持续存在的关键因素。近年来，受全球气候变暖影响，我国西部冰川资源发生明显变化，大部分冰川处于退缩状态，冰储量持续减少，冰川变化的资源环境效应已逐渐显现，成为影响区域水资源可持续利用重要因素之一。本文以气候变化情景下疏勒河流域水资源承载力研究为主题，首先利用多种统计方法分析了疏勒河出山径流和气候因素的变化现状，以及出山径流对气候变化的响应；为了进一步了解未来流域水资源的变化趋势，在对SDSM统计降尺度模型中预报因子选择方法评比的基础上，通过该模型对祁连山区气候变化情景做了降尺度研究；并将降尺度后的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下流域上游山区气温、降水数据输入HBV-light水文模型，模拟估算了未来疏勒河出山径流及冰川融水变化情景；最后，借助系统动力学方法构建了水资源承载力评价模型，对疏勒河流域水资源承载力现状进行了应用分析，结果表明系统动力学模型能够较好表达流域水资源承载力变化情况；然后，以未来疏勒河干流出山径流变化为基础，以中下游绿洲水资源利用为核心，分析了流域水资源承载力的变化趋势，并提出了相应的调控思路与建议。主要结论可概括如下：1961～2015年疏勒河出山径流量总体呈现增加趋势，20世纪90年代后期以来出山径流增加趋势更为明显。虽然降水是出山径流变化的主控因素，但是气温升高导致冰川融化加快可能是90年代后期以来出山径流增长较快的重要原因。在SDSM统计降尺度模型中，逐步回归分析法选择的预报因子所产生的降尺度结果要优于相关和偏相关分析法的结果，未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种气候情景下，祁连山区气候呈现出气温上升、降水增加的趋势。到2050年，两种气候情景下疏勒河出山径流量与冰川融水比重总体上均呈现增加趋势。其中，大约在2031～2040年，冰川融水比重在两种情景下都出现变化拐点，但出山径流仍呈增长趋势。目前疏勒河流域用水量已逐渐达到可利用水资源量的临界限度，如果不加调控，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种气候情景下，即便流域水资源可能增长的情形下，仍将分别于2023年和2032年完全进入过载状态。通过模拟不同调控对策下未来流域水资源承载力的响应与变化，发现经济系统需水是承载力变化的关键要素，其中农业需水是调控核心。 |
| 英文摘要 | ABSTRACTAs an important part of global change, climate change has direct influence on the elements of hydrologic cycle such as precipitation, evaporation and runoff, it could affect the water resources redistributed in the time and space, and change the quantity of water resources significantly. Therefore, some negative effects can be found in many aspects of social and economic development such as water resources utilization and planning management, and it is also related to the regional sustainable development of social, economic and ecological environment.In the arid and semi-arid region of the northwest of China, ice and snow melt water is always concerned by people for it is an important parts of surface water. Also because it feeds the inland river, lots of oasis where arid areas people lived on are formed in the hinterland of China. As a result, ice and snow melt water is a key factor for maintaining the oasis landscape as well as hydrological and ecological system stability. Recent years, with the global warming, the glaciers has changed obviously in the western China, most of the glaciers are shrinking rapidly, ice volumes are reducing continually. The effect of glaciers for water resource and environment has appeared gradually, and it has become one of the important factors for affecting the regional water resources utilization sustainably.This study based on the theme of water resources carrying capacity of the Shule river basin under the climate change scenarios. We analyzed the upstream climate change and the runoff variation as well as its response to climate change. In order to further understand the future changes of the basin water resources, on the basis of improvement in choosing the predictor in the SDSM statistical downscaling model, we analyzed the climate change scenarios of Qilian mountain area by the SDSM statistical downscaling model, and driven the HBV-light hydrological model using the climate scenario data of the downscaled RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Then, we estimated the future changes of the Shule river runoff and glacier melt water. Finally, we constructed a corresponding evaluation model using the System dynamics model, and found it fit for analyzing the water resources carrying capacity status; Afterwards, based on the future changes of the runoff and the downstream water resources utilization, we analyzed the future trend of the water resources carrying capacity, and put forward some conventional control ideas and suggestions. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows:In general, the mountainous runoff of the Shule River basin presents an increasing trend in the research periods, and this trend was more obvious since the late 1990s. Moreover, precipitation is the main controlling factor for the runoff change, but the increased glacier melt caused by the rising temperature maybe was the main reason for the changes of mountainous run off after 1990s.In the SDSM statistical downscaling, the stepwise regression analysis method for choosing the predictor is better than the correlation and partial correlation analysis method. In addition, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the future temperature and precipitation in Qilian mountain area present increasing trend.By the 2050s, in general, the runoff and the proportion of glacier melt water are showed an increasing trend. During 2031-2040, the glacier melt water will appear a turning point in both scenarios, but the mountainous runoff is still on the rising. At present, water consumption of the Shule river basin has been gradually achieved the critical limits of the amount of available water resources. If it is without control, even the situation of river basin water resources may be grow in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the water resources carrying capacity will still be completely into the overload state in 2023 and 2032 respectively. Thus, we used the model to simulate the response of the water resources carrying capacity under different controlling measures, and found that water demand of the economic system is the key element for the change of water resources carrying capacity, and the regulation emphasis should be focused on the agricultural water demand. |
| 中文关键词 | 气候变化 ; SDSM降尺度 ; 疏勒河流域 ; 水资源承载力 |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change SDSM downscaling model Shule river basin Water resource carrying capacity |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287957 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 杨春利. 不同气候情景下疏勒河流域水资源承载力研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2017. |
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