Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 中国城市适应气候变化能力评估方法与实证研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Evaluation Method and Empirical Research of Urban Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in China |
| 赵春黎 | |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 吴钢 ; 严岩 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 气候变化已成为21世纪最大的挑战之一，对动植物、生态系统和人类健康等诸多领域产生了各类影响。减缓与适应是全球应对气候变化的两大措施，其中适应行动旨在通过提升人类系统对气候变化的适应能力从而降低气候变化产生的影响和危害程度。城市作为人类活动和社会经济发展的主要聚集地，面临极端降水、高温热浪、空气污染、沿海洪水、持续干旱和水资源短缺等一系列气候变化影响时，遭受的人员伤亡和经济损失也更为严重，是气候变化相关灾害的高发区和敏感区，提升城市适应气候变化能力已成为应对气候变化最重要的任务之一。适应气候变化的研究与实践目前还处于起步阶段，城市适应只有框架性的领域和原则，基于区域气候变化特征和针对城市个体的适应对策是进一步的研究方向，而这首先需要城市尺度适应能力与制约的系统评估和分析作为基础。因此，为了揭示中国城市适应气候变化能力特征及其限制因素，明确不同类型和不同区域城市适应气候变化的关键问题，本研究首先分析了我国1951-2011年降水、气温、极端降水和极端气温的时空分布变化，总结了我国气候变化和极端气候的区域特征和发展趋势；进而构建了基于IPCC脆弱性评估框架和SRPR模型相结合的城市适应气候变化能力评估方法与指标体系；最后，采用集对分析的不确定性评估方法对中国286个地级市适应气候变化能力水平进行了评估，从暴露度-敏感度-恢复力角度分析城市适应能力的限制因素，讨论总结了不同规模和气候分区城市类群的适应特征，最后提出了我国城市适应能力提升的对策建议，以期为我国城市气候变化适应能力的提升提供方法支持和决策参考。本文的主要结论如下：（1）1951-2011年气候变化的特征和趋势表现为：降水在我国东南和青藏高原地区呈现持续增加的趋势，在东北等少部分地区有所减少；降水的季节分布一定程度表现出向夏季和冬季集中的趋势。气温的时空变化表现为南方地区增温幅度小，北方地区增温幅度大；尽管60年间全国出现了一致性的增温变暖，但春夏季节，部分地区反而呈现了降温趋势；这表明南北方的温度差距逐渐缩小，同时四季温差也逐渐缩小。极端降水方面，强降雨日数和极强降雨量在南方地区呈继续加强趋势，北方地区明显减少；东南地区的持续性降雨天数较高且有继续增加的趋势，在西南部分地则有所减少；持续干燥区域集中分布于青藏高原、新疆部分地区以及云南等地；干旱趋势在中部与西南地区有所增加，而在原先干旱集中的区域有所减缓；可以看出青藏高原地区是持续干旱与持续降水都较集中的区域。极端气温方面，冷持续指数在南方的分布时长高于北方地区，全国呈减少趋势；热持续指数在西部增幅远高于东部地区，全国呈增长的趋势；冷夜日数呈减少趋势，且中部和东南沿海地区的减少幅度最高；暖昼日数有增加的趋势，西部增幅高于东部地区；总体表现为60年来增温幅度较大，且东西部温差有缩小趋势。（2）基于IPCC脆弱性评估和SPRR模型，构建了基于暴露度、敏感度、恢复力的我国城市适应能力评价框架，包括气候变化、波动，极端气候，气候灾害，空气质量，脆弱人群，能源、水资源消费，人口密度，排水系统，交通运输能力等要素的22项评估指标。并将各项指标划分到适应能力“强”、“较强”，“中”、“较差”和“差”五个等级中；基于熵值法对各项指标赋予权重。采用集对分析的不确定性评价方法，对我国城市进行了气候变化的适应能力排序和等级划分。（3）以2010年为基准年，采用集对分析法对我国286个地级市的气候变化适应能力评估显示，我国东部城市适应能力整体高于西部地区。适应能力低值区主要分布在三个区域，即西部的甘肃、陕西和河南地区；中部的湖南、江西、浙江等地区；以及南部的广西、云南等地区。基于我国主要城市群分析的结果显示，适应能力低的城市群包括中原城市群、关中城市群、兰西城市群、长江中下游城市群、北部湾城市群、珠三角城市群；适应能力中等的区域主要集中在辽中南城市群、滇中城市群和长江三角洲；适应能力较高的区域分布于成渝城市群、山东半岛城市群和京津冀城市群。（4）从城市规模和气候分区角度分析了城市适应气候变化能力的关键要素，结果显示，城市规模角度来看，一方面超大城市、特大城市以及大城市适应气候变化的能力整体上高于中小城市，这主要体现在大城市有较高的恢复力；另一方面，城市规模越大，其敏感性也越高，气候变化可能带来的影响和损失也越大；暴露度主要是受到城市区位因素的影响，南方城市的暴露程度要高于北方城市。从所处的气候分区来看，干旱和半干旱区城市暴露度和敏感度不高，但应对气候变化的恢复力水平很低，因此成为气候变化适应能力最低的区域；半湿润区的城市，其气候变化暴露度和敏感度处于中等水平，而应对气候变化的恢复力较强，气候变化适应能力较高；湿润区城市应对气候变化恢复力是最高的，但同时也面临最高的气候暴露风险，而该区域城市适应气候变化敏感性与城市规模存在较显著的关系，使得湿润区内城市气候变化适应能力存在较大的个体差异。 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change has been regarded as one of the greatest challenge in 21st century, it is an indisputable fact that climate change has led to various influences to the plants, animals, ecosystems and human health. Mitigation and adaptation are two major measures for tackling climate change, in which the adaptation one aims at minimizing the impact of negative effects, and is much more urgent than the mitigation action, especially in densely populated urban areas which are strongly influenced by climate change. Urban area is the main gathering place for human activities and socio-economic development, which also a high incidence area of climate disasters, the casualties and economic losses due to climate changes are also more serious in urban regions. Urban area faces extreme precipitation, high temperature and heat waves, air pollution, coastal floods, persistent drought and water resource shortages, and a series of climate change issues and effects. However, the current adaptation research and practice are first getting started, which poses a great challenge to address climate change in urban region. Enhancing urban adaptation to climate change has become one of the most important tasks.In order to comb and discuss the cliamte adaptability and its limitations in urban areas, and reveal the key problems for different types and climate zone of urban areas, our research evaluated adaptive capacity for 286 citys by set pair analysis (SPA) to provide the scientific basis for policy makers. In this paper, firstly, we analyzed the temporal-spatial distributions and change of precipitation, temperature, extreme precipitation and extreme temperature in China from 1951 to 2011, to represent the degree and risk of climate change and extreme weather. And then, we constructed our urban adaptation climate change assessment framework based on the integration of two methods of IPCC vulnerability assessment framework and SRPR model. The framework contained 19 indicators and the set pair analysis method was selected to evaluated urban adaptation climate change ability. At the same time, the limiting factors of urban adaptability were analyzed from the perspective of exposure - sensitivity - resilience, and we also analyzed the adaptation characteristics of citys for different scale and climate zoning. Finally, we put forward suggestions for the improvement of urban adaptability. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The temporal-spatial variation of precipitation and temperature showed that, precipitation had increasing trend in southeastern and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while reduced in a few parts of the northeast; the seasonal distribution of precipitation had a certain degree of concentration to summer and winter. The spatial-temporal variation of the temperature showed that the warming amplitudes were small in the south and were bigger in the north China; although it was consistent warming trends in the past 60 years, the temperature difference between the north-south and four seasons were gradually narrowed. The change of extreme precipitation showed that R20 and R99p were increasing in the south area while the northern area was obviously reduced, the R20 in the southeastern region was higher and there was still an increasing trends; the dry areas were concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Xinjiang and parts of Yunnan, the drought trend increased in the central and southwestern regions and slowed down in the areas where the original drought was concentrated. It could be seen that the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was a region where persistent droughts and persistent precipitation were concentrated. For the extreme temperature, the cold persistence index was longer in the south than that in the northern region, and the trend was decreasing in the whole country. The thermal sustainability index was increasing in national scale, and the increasing range was much higher in the west than that in the eastern region; the number of warm days was increasing, and the increase in western was higher than that in the eastern region. Overall, it turned warming in the past 60 years, and the temperature difference between the east and the west was narrowed.(2) Based on the IPCC vulnerability assessment and the SPRR model, our research constructed the evaluation framework of our urban adaptive capacity in China, and selected 19 evaluation indexes from three elements of exposure-sensitivity-resilience. The uncertainty method of set pair analysis was employed to assessing adaptation capacity of 286 citys in China for 2010.(3) The adaptability of urban in eastern China was higher than that in the western region. The low-lying areas of adaptability were mainly distributed in three regions: Gansu, Shaanxi and Henan in the west; Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces in central; and Guangxi and Yunnan in the southern. And 12 urban agglomerations were selected to analysis regional adaptability capacity.(4) From the perspective of urban scale and climate zoning, the results showed that, on the one hand, the adaptability of megacity behemoths, megalopolis and megacity were higher than that of medium-sized citys and small citys, this was mainly reflected in the higher resilience of large cities. On the other hand, the greater the size of the city, the higher the sensitivity, the possible impact of climate change and loss were greater; the exposure was mainly affected by locational factors, and southern urban was higher exposure than that in the northern. Seen from the climate zoning, city in the drought and semi-arid had a low level of resilience to climate change, and their exposure and sensitivity were high, they were areas with low climate change risk and poor recovery capacity. This region owned the lowest adaptability capacity to climate change. In the semi-humid area, the resilience of the urban was strong, its exposure and sensitivity were also at a moderate level, and the ability to adapt to climate change was also high. Climate change resilience was the highest in the humid region, but also accompanied by the highest risk of climate exposure in the region, the sensitivity of regional urbans had a greater relationship with its urban size. |
| 中文关键词 | 暴露度 ; 敏感度 ; 恢复力 ; 气候变化 ; 气候适应 |
| 英文关键词 | exposure sensitivity resilience climate change climatic adaptation |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 环境经济与环境管理 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287915 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 赵春黎. 中国城市适应气候变化能力评估方法与实证研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2017. |
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