Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 气候变化及断裂构造对西昆仑山北坡径流变化影响研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Impacts of Climatic Change and Fault Tectonics on Streamflow in the Northern Slope of West Kunlun Mountains, China |
| 颜伟 | |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 刘景时 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 以冰雪融水补给为主的河川径流是西北干旱区绿洲社会经济发展的命脉，全面认识西北干旱区河川径流变化规律、原因和机理，对于理解寒区旱区水循环过程具有重要意义。近年来，西北气候暖湿化转型，气温升高，降水增多，而西昆仑山冰川无明显退缩，河流水量减少或稳定，有别于全球冰川普遍退缩和河流水量增多。加之，西昆仑地区断裂构造属于我国最大断裂构造—阿尔金断裂西侧部分，是青藏高原向塔里木板块连接段，本区所有河流流过若干条断层，河道结构复杂，且大地震活动频发，使得本区径流变化更加复杂。因此，本论文以西昆仑山北坡典型河流(叶尔羌河、喀拉喀什河、玉龙喀什河和克里雅河)为研究对象，以本区1957–2014年水文、气象站点资料和MODIS积雪数据(2001–2014)为依托，定性与定量分析相结合，利用Mann–Kendall趋势和突变检验和小波分析方法分析了气温、降水、积雪和径流的年内、年际和多时间尺度变化特征；基于相关、滑动相关和回归分析方法分析了气候要素对不同流域径流的影响规律；基于遥感数据，对叶尔羌河克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖的形成—排水过程进行了监测，并明确了突发洪水对叶尔羌河各月径流的影响程度；基于水文比拟法以叶尔羌河为参照流域，估算和田河异常年份夏季各月径流损失，并探讨了区域地震和断裂构造分布对不同流域径流的影响。主要结论如下：(1) 在气温变化上，年平均气温以0.24℃/10a的变化率呈极显著的升温趋势，并于1994年左右发生突变；各站升温率介于0.09~0.38℃/10a，其中以冬、春、秋三季升温为主，夏季升温率较小；山区站点气温突变时间早于绿洲区站点；各站年平均气温大致存在2–3a和7–10a的准年际变化周期，山区站以14–20a的年代际周期为主，而绿洲站则主要集中在30a左右。在降水量变化上，年降水量以4.82mm/10a的变化率呈显著的增加趋势并于2001年发生突变，且山区站年降水量增加率(4.09~10.40mm/10a)大于绿洲站(0.79~8.22mm/10a)；西昆仑山北坡年降水量存在准3a、5a、8a和20a的周期变化。在积雪变化上，四流域平均积雪面积年内存在春季和秋季两个积雪峰值期，呈“M”型，且海拔4000m以上为双峰形，以下为冬季积雪补给为主的单峰型；2001–2014年各流域、各海拔高度带积雪面积均无显著变化趋势，且叶尔羌河、喀拉喀什河和玉龙喀什河积雪年际波动呈“M”形态；四流域积雪变化均存在准半年和1a周期，叶尔羌河和喀拉喀什河存在6a左右的年际周期，玉龙喀什河和克里雅河存在3a和7a的年际周期变化。在径流变化上，叶尔羌河和克里雅河年径流深呈显著增加趋势，并分别于1999年和2000年发生突变，而喀拉喀什河和玉龙喀什河年径流深呈不显著增加趋势；叶尔羌河径流深存在2–3a、6a和14a周期，喀拉喀什河存在2–3a、6a、8a和32a周期，玉龙喀什河存在2–3a、6a和9a周期，克里雅河存在5a和11a周期。(2)在径流对气候变化的响应上，气温是影响叶尔羌河年和夏季各月径流深的主导因子，符合以冰雪融水补给为主的河流产流规律；喀拉喀什河和玉龙喀什河年和夏季各月径流深与气温和降水量的关系不符合以冰雪融水补给为主的河流产流规律；气温和降水量共同影响克里雅河年及夏季各月径流深，且后者是主导因素，但克里雅河夏季径流深与气温呈不显著正相关以及径流深与气温和降水量15a滑动偏相关系数波动较大，即其不符合以冰雪融水补给为主的河流产流规律。(3)基于Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI和HJ–1A/B影像监测到克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖于2015和2016年分别发生了1次和2次冰川阻塞湖形成—排水过程，蓄水量分别为49.8 × 106、49.2 × 106和34.9 × 106 m3。1959–2016年间，叶尔羌河流域共发生了28次冰川阻塞湖突发洪水事件，且发生的频率在增加，但洪峰流量有减小的趋势。冰川阻塞湖突发洪水对6–11月的平均影响程度分别为3.4%、2.5%、3.2%、8.8%、11.2%、28.5%。(4)结合地震和日径流数据，1996年大地震引起喀拉喀什河和玉龙喀什河径流总量分别增加0.04×108m3和0.03×108m3；2014年大地震导致克里雅河径流总量增加0.003×108m3。西昆仑山北坡诸流域枯季各月(12月、1月和2月)径流的15a滑动相关系数于1985年左右发生突变，反映了前后两段各流域的地下水系统发生了改变。基于水文比拟法，以叶尔羌河为参照流域，明确了和田河(喀拉喀什河和玉龙喀什河)夏季各月异常年份的径流以损失为主，6、7和8月异常年的径流损失总量分别为1.32~2.91×108m3、3.88~4.22×108m3、2.80~4.71×108m3；玉龙喀什河径流损失量大于喀拉喀什河径流损失量；和田河径流损失与河道、断裂和冰川分布的空间耦合关系有关。 |
| 英文摘要 | Runoff, supplied mainly by snow and glacier meltwater, is the lifeblood of the socioeconomic development of oases in the arid area of Northwest China. Comprehensive understanding of the variations, causes, and mechanisms of runoff has important significance regarding the water cycle process in cold and arid regions. In recent years, the climate in Northwest China has changed to warm and wet. However, in contrast to the global circumstance, in the West Kunlun Mountains, there has been no significant glacial retreat and runoff has decreased or remained stable. In addition, fault tectonics in the West Kunlun Mountains belongs to the west part of the largest fault tectonic belt – the Altyn Tagh fault in China, and frequent seismic activity on the several major faults that cross the regional rivers has complicated the overall picture of runoff change.This study focused on the basins of four typical rivers: the Yarkant River (YKR), Karakax River (KR), Yurungkax River (YR), and Keriya River (KRY), which are fed primarily by glacier and snow meltwater from the northern slopes of the West Kunlun Mountains. Based on hydrological and meteorological data from 1957–2014 and MODIS snow cover products of 2001–2014, the annual, interannual, and multiple-timescale characteristics of air temperature (T), precipitation (P), snow cover area (SCA), and runoff (R) were examined using Mann–Kendall trends, mutation tests, and Morlet wavelet analysis. Correlation, sliding correlation, and regression analysis were used to analyze the impacts of T and P on R in the different basins. The formation–drainage processes of the Kyagar glacier dammed lake were monitored using remote sensing data, and influence of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) on the monthly R of the YKR basin was assessed. Hydrologic analogy was used to estimate the losses of total amount of summer R of the Hotan River (HR) in abnormal year using YKR as reference. Furthermore, the influences of earthquakes and the distribution of faults on R in the different basins were discussed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Annual mean T had a significant increasing trend at the rate of 0.24°C/10a with the mutation year of 1994. The increasing rates of T at different stations were 0.09–0.38℃/10a, and the increasing rates of T in winter, spring, and fall were larger than summer. The mutation years of each station located in the mountain region were earlier than in the oasis region. The primary periods of T of the different stations were found to be 2–3a and 7–10a, and stations in the mountain region exhibited a 14–20a cycle, whereas the oasis stations exhibited a ~30a cycle. Annual P increased significantly at a rate of 4.82 mm/10a with the mutation year of 2001. Furthermore, the rates of increase of annual P of the mountain stations (4.09–10.40 mm/10a) were larger than the oasis stations (0.79–8.22 mm/10a). Periods of annual P on the northern slopes of the West Kunlun Mountain were found to be 3a, 5a, 8a, and 20a. The results of the analysis of the seasonal change of SCA for the four basins indicated unimodal distributions (winter season) below 4000 m a.s.l. and bimodal distributions (spring and fall) above 4000 m a.s.l. with a significant M-type fluctuation. Interannual changes of SCA at different elevations in the four basins showed no significant trends during 2001–2014. The interannual changes of SCA in the YKR, KR, and YR basins showed typical M-type fluctuation during the studied period. The primary periods of SCA of the four basins were found to be 0.5a and 1.0a. Furthermore, the YKR and KR basins exhibited a 6a cycle, whereas the YR and KRY basins exhibited 3a and 7a cycles, respectively. Annual mean R of the YKR and KRY basins had significant increasing trends with the mutation year of 1999 and 2000, respectively; the KR and YR basins showed only slightly increasing trends. The primary periods of annual R were found to be 2–3a, 6a, and 14a for YKR, 2–3a, 6a, 8a, and 32a for KR, 2–3a, 6a, and 9a for YR, and 5a and 11a for KRY.(2) In terms of the response of R to climate change, T was found the dominant factor affecting annual and monthly R during summer in the YKR basin, showing that R satisfied the runoff-production law of a glacier-fed basin. The relationships of annual and monthly R in summer with T and P in the YR and KR basins did not satisfy the runoff-production law of a glacier-fed basin. Both T and P affected annual and monthly R in summer in the KRY basin, and the latter was found the dominant factor. However, an insignificant relationship between T and R in the KRY basin in summer, as well as unstable 15a sliding partial correlation coefficients of R with T and P, showed that the KRY basin did not satisfy the runoff-production law of a glacier-fed basin(3) Based on both Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI and HJ–1A/B satellite images, the formation–drainage processes of the Kyagar glacial dammed lake were monitored: once in 2015 and twice in 2016, when the maximum water volume was 49.8 × 106, 49.2 × 106, and 34.9 × 106 m3, respectively. Overall, 28 GLOFs have occurred during 1959–2016, with characteristics of increasing frequency and decreasing peak flow. The impact of GLOFs on R in the YKR basin was 3.4%, 2.5%, 3.2%, 8.8%, 11.2%, 28.5% for June, July, August, September, October, and November, respectively.(4) Data of earthquakes and daily runoff showed that the earthquake, which occurred in 1996, released excess R in the KR and YR basins of about 0.04 × 108 and 0.03 × 108 m3, respectively. In 2014, an earthquake caused increased R of about 0.003 × 108 m3 in the KRY basin. Analysis of the 15a sliding correlation of monthly R during the different months (December, January, February) of the dry season showed that the nature of the groundwater system of four basins has been changed around 1985. Considering the YKR basin as a reference, the method of hydrologic analogy was used to confirm that the summer R of HR was lost in abnormal year. The average losses of R of the HR basin were 1.32–2.91 × 108, 3.88–4.22 × 108, and 2.80–4.71 × 108 m3 for June, July, and August, respectively. The average losses of R of the YR basin were larger than that of the KR basin. The spatial coupling relationship between river course, faults, and the spatial distribution of glaciers is responsible for the loss of R in the HR basin. |
| 中文关键词 | 气候变化 ; 断裂构造 ; Mann–Kendall ; 水文比拟 ; 西昆仑山北坡 |
| 英文关键词 | Climatic Change Faults Mann–Kendall Hydrologic Analogy the Northern Slope of West Kunlun Mts. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院青藏高原研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287898 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 颜伟. 气候变化及断裂构造对西昆仑山北坡径流变化影响研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2017. |
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