Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 基于TRMM降水数据的1998-2015“一带一路”地区干旱时空分布 | |
| 其他题名 | Time and Space Distribution of Drought in One Belt One Road Area from 1998 to 2015 Based on Precipitation Data of TRMM |
| 柏永青 | |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 干旱是一种世界范围的自然灾害，长期影响各国农业生产和社会经济活动。“一带一路”沿线区域生态环境脆弱、农业耕地集中、干旱灾害频繁，利用遥感手段监测大区域的干旱水平及其时空变化，对于科学掌握“一带一路”地区的干旱格局、区域分异特征，及其对农业耕地的影响具有重要的科学和现实意义。本文基于TRMM降水数据，利用降水距平百分率干旱指标计算获取了北纬50°以南的“一带一路”沿线地区1998-2015年的干旱空间格局和时空变化，基于六大经济走廊布局划分了六大片区，利用BFAST算法分析了“一带一路”地区干旱的区域分异特征，获取了本区域生态地理分区的干旱时空差异，及干旱与区域蒸散发的关系；基于2001-2013年本区域耕地数据分析了“一带一路”地区不同干旱水平下的耕地空间分布及其变化。得到的主要结论如下：（1）利用降水距平百分率干旱模型，获取“一带一路”沿线区域（含61个国家和地区）的1998-2015年逐月共216期干旱时空分布数据。分析获取了本区域的干旱空间格局特征，结果表明冬季的干旱主要分布在东北亚、东南亚和南亚地区，夏季的干旱主要分布在中亚和西亚地区。“一带一路”地区的干旱面积在1999年12月份达到最大值2352.29万km2，特旱面积占到了总干旱面积的42.43%，在2010年5月份达到最小值788.67万km2，特旱面积占23.35%。（2）时序分析表明干旱发生呈现明显的季节周期性且冬季比夏季的干旱面积大。随着季节从春到冬的变化，干旱区域不断往西移动，到了冬季，重旱区域又回到了亚洲东部地区。BFAST统计结果发现，1998-2015年间“一带一路”地区的干旱总面积呈现小范围减小趋势，主要表现在东北亚、南亚和西亚北非地区。（3）结合BFAST和Matlab对六大片区干旱分布统计分析结果显示干旱的发生及严重程度存在不同的区域时空分异特征。东北亚、中亚和西亚北非地区的平均干旱程度均处于中旱及以下水平，东南亚和中东欧的平均干旱程度处于轻旱及以下水平，南亚地区的干旱较为严重，多处于重旱和中旱水平。1998-2015年来，东北亚、西亚北非、南亚和中东欧地区的干旱平均水平变化均呈现小范围的减轻，中亚地区的干旱平均水平变化呈现小范围的增强，东南亚地区的干旱平均水平变化呈现先减后增的波动特征，从1998年1月到2002年8月不断减弱，从2002年9月到2015年12月呈不断增强，但在2005年6月和2010年6月因突发性降雨出现两个断点。因季节周期性明显，干旱变化趋势不显著，整体趋于稳定。 （4）基于MODIS MCD12Q1数据产品，提取获得2001-2013年“一带一路”沿线地区逐年耕地时空分布，结果表明耕地主要分布在中东欧、南亚、东南亚和东北亚四大块区域中较为平坦的地区，2001-2013年间该地区的耕地面积总体呈现先增长后减少的变化特征。通过耕地空间分布和干旱时空分布叠加分析，得到了本区域耕地的逐月（共156期）干旱水平，计算可知东北亚、东南亚、南亚、西亚北非、中东欧和中亚处于干旱状态的耕地占总耕地面积的平均比例分别为45.06%、37.76%、57.71%、41.34%、28.19%和39.41%，其中南亚地区处于特旱水平下的耕地占到了总耕地面积的29.2%，使得南亚耕地区成为干旱影响最大的耕地区域。通过分析逐月耕地区域干旱水平可知，东北亚、东南亚和南亚地区处于干旱状态的耕地占总耕地面积的比例表现出冬高夏低的特征、中东欧和中亚地区恰好相反。 |
| 英文摘要 | As a global natural disaster, drought had long-term negative effects on agricultural production and socioeconomic activities of countries. There were frequent natural disaster over the One Belt One Road (OBOR) area in which much agricultural land concentrated with fragile ecological environment. The drought patterns and regional differentiation characteristics of OBOR area could be cognized by monitoring the spatio-temporal changes in large area with remote sensing techniques, which could be of great scientific and practical significance for agricultural production.In this study, spatiao-temporal distributions of drought disaster over OBOR from 1998 to 2015 were achieved based on TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation data and the precipitation abnormity percentage drought model with integration of agriculture information and mass data processing techinques.The patterns and differences of spatio-temporal distribution and area change of drought in OBOR region were analysed by dividing into six sub-regions including Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia and North Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia. The relationships between drought distribution and geographic environment was analysed based on ecoregional data and evapotranspiration of land surface. The relevance between drought and agricultural production was revealed based on the monthly spatio-temporal change of arable land area from 2001 to 2013 in OBOR region.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）Based on analysis results of spatial pattern characteristics of 216 drought datasets in OBOR area (61 countries and regions) from 1998 to 2015, the drought disasters mainly appeared in winter over Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia, while in summer over Central and West Asia. The maximum drought area of 23.5229 million square kolimeters appeared in December 1999 and minimum drought area of 7.8867 million square kolimeters appeared in May 2010, the proportion of extremely dry area were 42.43% and 32.35%, respectively.（2）Apparent seasonal periodicities were exhibited by time series analysis of the drought, and there were bigger drought area in winter than summer. The drought region moved to the west as the season changed from spring to winter, and the severe drought area went back to Eastern Asia area again in winter. There was a slight declining trend of total drought area in OBOR region for 18 years based on statistical result of BFAST model, especially in Northeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia and North Africa area.（3）There were different spatial differentiation characteristics in different area based on statistical analysis in six geographic regions with BFAST model and Matlab software. The average dry degrees were moderately dry or lower in Northeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa, lightly dry or lower in Southeast Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, severely and moderately dry in South Asia. Over the past 18 years, there were small-scale decreasing trends of drought in Northeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia and North Africa, Central Eastern Europe area but a slight increase in Central Asia. The drought in Southeast Asia had a weakening trend from January 1998 to August 2002 and a constantly reinforce from September 2002 to December 2015, but there were 2 breakpoints in June 2005 and June 2010 because of sudden heavy rainfall. In general, the variation of drought were not significant due to conspicuous seasonal periodicities, there were gentlely stable drought tendencies on the whole.（4）Yearly spatio-temporal distribution from 2001 to 2013 of cropland in OBOR area was extracted based on the MODIS MCD12Q1 dataset and there were 156 monthly drought levels in the cropland region according to the overlaying of drought and agricultural land layers. The cropland in OBOR area mainly distributed in four main relatively complanate regions including Central and Eastern Europe, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. The total area of cropland in the reaearch region had a trend of increasing firstly and then decreased from 2001 to 2013. The result that the cropland area distributed in dry region occupied large proportion of the total cropland area was revealed by overlaying the drought distribution with cropland distribution. The proportions in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia and North Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia were 45.06%, 37.76%, 57.71%, 41.34%, 28.19% and 39.41%, respectively. The drought had most serious influence on cropland in South Asia where 29.2% cropland located in extremely dry region. Analysis of monthly drought distribution in agricultural area indicated that the cropland area under dry environment had a higher proportion in winter than summer in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia area, but the proportions in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia area showed a very opposite characteristics. |
| 中文关键词 | 热带测雨任务卫星（TRMM） ; 干旱时空分布 ; 降水距平百分率 ; “一带一路”地区 ; 季节变化趋势监测（BFAST） |
| 英文关键词 | Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite (TRMM) Spatio-temporal Distribution of Drought Precipitation Abnormity Percentage One Belt One Road(OBOR) The Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 农业信息化 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287872 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 柏永青. 基于TRMM降水数据的1998-2015“一带一路”地区干旱时空分布[D]. 中国科学院大学,2017. |
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