Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 半干旱区水文模型的适用性研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Sdudy on the Applicability of the Hydrological Models in Semi-arid Regions |
| 李瑞 | |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 张士锋 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 在过去几十年，水文模型发展迅速，国内外产生了很多成熟的概念性水文模型及分布式物理模型。然而，由于半干旱区存在着降水稀少且时空分布不均，下垫面条件复杂且局部产流现象普遍等特征，半干旱区的产汇流计算难度较大，水文模型基本都是在南方湿润区适用性优良，而在北方半干旱区的应用效果较差。流域水文模型在半干旱区的应用存在很多不确定性，进行半干旱区水文模型的适用性研究，对于理解半干旱区复杂的产汇流机理、提高水文模型在该类区域的模拟精度具有重要的科学价值，能够为半干旱区水资源适用性管理提供科学支撑。本文以黄河上游典型小流域为研究区，基于研究区的地形地貌、土地利用及土壤数据，借助Matlab科学计算软件及ArcGIS平台构建河北雨洪模型及HEC-HMS模型；在此基础上，基于研究区1994-2010年间的10场暴雨洪水实测数据，分别通过粒子群算法及单变量搜索法对模型进行参数率定，并分析河北雨洪模型与HEC-HMS模型的模拟结果；然后，从模型结构、流域尺度、资料来源及参数优化方法等方面对模型的适用性进行深入分析，所得主要结论如下：(1) 河北雨洪模型与HEC-HMS模型在半干旱区都具有较好的模拟精度河北雨洪模型对洪水模拟的径流深、洪峰的平均误差分别为11.80%、16.81%，平均峰现时差为2.1h，平均效率系数为0.73。HEC-HMS模型模拟的径流深和洪峰的平均误差分别为13.91%、9.75%，平均峰现时差为1.9h，平均效率系数为0.64，表明河北雨洪模型和HEC-HMS模型在半干旱区都具有较好的模拟精度。(2) 河北雨洪模型比HEC-HMS模型在半干旱区的适用性更好河北雨洪模型模拟洪水的平均效率系数为0.73，效率系数超过0.60的有9场，占所有场次洪水的90%；HEC-HMS模型模拟洪水的平均效率系数为0.64，有6场在0.60以上，占所有场次洪水的60%，同时结合从模型结构、峰型、前期影响雨量Pa及降雨强度等因素对两个模型的影响进行综合评价表明，河北雨洪模型比HEC-HMS模型在半干旱区具有更好的适用性。(3) 目标函数对模型模拟结果有一定影响以河北雨洪模型为例，分别以峰值加权均方根误差，洪峰相对误差、洪量相对误差、平均相对误差组成的加权误差，纳西效率系数作为目标函数时，模型对洪水的模拟结果有一定差异，且各有侧重。在水文模型中应根据实际问题选取恰当的目标函数，从而提高模型的模拟精度，增加模型在半干旱区的适用性。(4) 模拟时间步长对模型模拟结果有一定影响以HEC-HMS模型为例，在参数不变的情况下，分别采用60min、30min和10min三个模拟时间步长进行模拟，模拟洪峰和洪量的平均误差及平均峰现时差逐渐减小，模型的模拟精度随着模拟时间步长的减小而出现一定程度的提高。(5) 土地利用变化后，研究区的暴雨洪水过程发生相应改变当草地转化为林地时，洪峰和洪量分别减小了20.6%、12.8%，当林地转化为居民用地时，洪峰和洪量分别增加了22.0%和13.7%，表明土地利用变化对洪水影响显著，建议研究区退耕还林，在城市化的过程中要注意采取一定的措施来削减洪峰，如增加城市的绿化面积，促进海绵城市的建设等。 论文在完成构建水文模型及评价模型对暴雨洪水模拟结果的基础上，创新性地从模型结构、流域尺度、资料来源等角度深入研究了半干旱区水文模型的适用性问题，深刻揭示了影响半干旱区水文模型适用性的关键因素。研究成果为洪水预报及水资源管理等相关部门提供理论依据，对提高半干旱区水文模型的模拟精度具有科学指导意义。 |
| 英文摘要 | In the past few decades, the hydrological model has developed rapidly, and many mature conceptual hydrological models and distributed physical models have been produced at home and abroad. However, due to the rare precipitation with its uneven distribution of spatial and temporal, complex conditions of underlying surface and common phenomenon of uneven runoff, the calculation of runoff and convergence is difficult in semi-arid zone. Basically, hydrological models are of good applicability in the southern moist areas and poor applicability in the northern semi-arid zones. There are many uncertainties in the application of the hydrological model in the semi-arid area. The study on the applicability of hydrological model in semi-arid area is of great scientific value to understand the complex mechanism of runoff and convergence in semi-arid area and improve the simulation accuracy of hydrological model in the region, and to provide scientific support for water resources applicability management in semi-arid area.In this paper, the typical small watershed in the upper reaches of the Yellow River was selected as the study area. Based on the topography, land use type and soil data of the study area, Hebei model and HEC-HMS model were constructed by means of Matlab scientific calculation software and ArcGIS platform. Next, the parameters of the models were determined by particle swarm optimization and univariate search methods respectively based on the data of 10 storm floods in the study area from 1994 to 2010 and the simulation results were analyzed. Then, the applicability of the models were analyzed deeply from the aspects of model structure, basin scale, data source and parameter optimization method. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Both of HB model and HEC-HMS model had good simulation precision in semi-arid areaAbout HB model, the mean error of runoff, flood peak and time were 11.80%, 16.81% and 1.9h respectively and the average NSE was 0.73. About HEC-HMS model, the mean error of runoff, flood peak and time were 13.91%, 9.75% and 2.1h respectively and the average NSE was 0.64.(2) HB model was more suitable than HEC-HMS model in semi-arid areaThe average NSE of HB model was 0.73 and the NSE of 9 floods was more than 0.6, which accounting for 90% of all floods. The average NSE of HEC-HMS model was 0.64 and the NSE of 6 floods was more than 0.6, which accounting for 60% of all floods. At the same time, the comprehensive evaluation of the effects of model structure, peak type, Pa and rainfall intensity on the two models showed that HB model had better applicability than HEC-HMS model in semi-arid area.(3) The objective function had some influence on the model simulation resultsTaking HB model as an example, the model had a certain difference in the simulation results and each had a focus when peak-weighted RMS error, weighted eeror of peak relative error, flood relative error and average relative error and NSE were used as the objective function. In the hydrological model, the appropriate objective function should be selected according to the practical problem, so as to improve the simulation precision of the model and increase the applicability of the model in the semi-arid area.(4) The simulation time step had some influence on the model simulation resultsTaking HEC-HMS model as an example, in the case of constant parameters, the simulation results were carried out by the simulating time of 60, 30 and 10 minutes respectively. The average error of peak, flood and time were gradually reduced. The simulation accuracy of the model increased with the decrease of the simulation time step.(5) After the land use changed, the study area of the torrential flood process changed accordinglyWhen the grassland into forest land, the flood peak and flood volume were reduced by 20.6%, 12.8% and when the forest land into residential land, the flood peak and floods increased by 22.0% and 13.7%, which showed that the land use change had a significant impact on the floods. It is suggested that the project should be taken to reduce the flood peak and flood volume, such as increasing the green area of the city and promoting the construction of sponge city in the process of urbanization.Based on the completion of constructing hydrological models and evaluating the models’ simulation results, this paper deeply studied the applicability of the hydrological models in the semi-arid area from the perspectives of model structure, watershed scale and data sources, and profoundly revealed the key factors which affected model applicability. The research results provided theoretical bases for flood forecasting and water resources management and other relevant departments, and had scientific significance for improving the simulation accuracy of hydrological model in semi-arid area. |
| 中文关键词 | 半干旱区 ; 水文模型 ; 适用性 ; 目标函数 ; 时间步长 ; 洪水响应 |
| 英文关键词 | semi-arid area hydrological model applicability objective function time step flood response |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287859 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 李瑞. 半干旱区水文模型的适用性研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2017. |
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