Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 温室气体和土地利用/覆盖变化对气温和水分收支变化的影响 | |
| 其他题名 | The Impacts of Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentration and Land Use / Land Cover Change on the Surface Air Temperature and Water Budget |
| 胡祖恒 | |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 马柱国 ; 徐忠峰 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 人类活动引起的温室气体 (GHG) 排放和土地利用/覆盖变化 (LULCC) 显著地影响着全球和区域气候。在过去的几十年里，科学家对温室气体和土地利用/覆盖变化的气候效应开展了大量研究，并取得了很多重要发现。然而，以往研究大多单独关注温室气体的气候效应或单独关注土地利用/覆盖变化的气候效应，二者对气候变化的相对贡献方面的研究较少；此外，目前研究主要关注温室气体和土地利用/覆盖变化对温度和降水的影响，两者对于水分收支其它分量的影响也还不甚清楚。鉴于此，本文采用地球系统模式 (CESM)，综合考虑温室气体和土地利用/覆盖变化两种强迫因子，设计了四个数值试验，首先研究了温室气体和土地利用/覆盖变化对地面气温的影响，并对其影响机制进行了分析；其次，定量评估了两者对地表水分收支各分量(包括降水，蒸散发，径流，土壤湿度)的影响和相对贡献；最后，针对不同气候背景下土地利用/覆盖变化对地表水分收支影响差异进行了研究。论文主要结论如下： (1) 温室气体和土地利用/覆盖变化对于温度的影响存在显著差异。总体来说，温室气体增加对地表气温的影响大于土地利用/覆盖变化的影响，但在气温日较差 (DTR)的变化中，在土地利用发生显著变化的地区，土地利用/覆盖变化的贡献显著大于温室气体的贡献。在北半球高纬度地区，温室气体在气温日较差的变化中扮演着重要角色，导致北美和东北欧区域气温日较差减小0.6~1°C，但在中纬度地区和南亚地区，无论是在气温日较差变化数值的正负符号和大小两方面，土地利用/覆盖变化的作用都更加显著，在北美地区东部、欧洲、东亚和南亚地区，气温日较差显著减小，减小幅度达到1°C以上。温室气体增加往往引起日最低气温和最高气温同时上升，导致日较差的变化幅度相对较小。相反，土地利用/覆盖变化对日最高气温和日最低气温的影响存在显著的非对称性。比如：在东亚地区，土地利用/覆盖变化导致日最高气温显著降低，日最低气温则显著升高；在南亚地区，日最低气温的升高幅度显著大于日最高气温的升高幅度。(2) 人类活动引起的温室气体增加，显著地增强了北半球中高纬度的降水和蒸发；在一些地区，土地利用/覆盖变化对水分收支(尤其在地面蒸散发中)的影响与温室气体相当。北美大陆北部和西伯利亚东部地区的年平均、暖季和冷季降水均显著增加 (2–6 mm month-1)，在湿润区，温室气体的增加导致蒸散发显著增加，而土地利用/覆盖变化使得湿润区蒸散发显著减少，且土地利用/覆盖变化引起的蒸散发减少的数值大于温室气体的影响，两者共同作用表现为蒸散发的显著减少(1–2 mm month-1)。温室气体在北美干旱半干旱区土壤湿度变化中扮演着更重要的角色，在暖季和冷季都使得土壤湿度大面积减少(2–4 mm month-1)；无论是在暖季还是冷季，在土地利用/覆盖变化最显著的地区，比如：欧洲、东亚、南亚和北美东部地区，土地利用/覆盖变化对蒸散发和土壤湿度变化的影响大于温室气体的影响。(3)在不同的温室气体浓度背景下 (1850年和2000年温室气体浓度水平)，相同的土地利用/覆盖变化对欧洲区域水分收支存在显著的影响差异，温室气体增加会显著改变土地利用/覆盖变化对东欧地区地表水分收支的影响作用。研究结果表明，在1850年温室气体含量背景下，土地利用/覆盖变化导致欧洲中东部地区降水显著增加0.1–0.2 mm day-1，蒸散发显著增加0.2–0.5 mm day-1，土壤湿度显著增加0.2–0.5 mm day-1。而在2000年温室气体含量背景下，LULCC导致欧洲中东部地区降水减少0.1–0.2 mm day-1。温室气体增加后，土地利用/覆盖变化导致该地区对流层低层大气环流由辐合变为辐散，气温以及大气水汽含量降低，这些变化能较大程度地改变土地利用/覆盖变化对区域水分收支的净影响力。 |
| 英文摘要 | Human activities significantly affect the global and regional climate through the Greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) emission and Land use and Land Cover change (LULCC). In recent years, the impacts of increased Greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate change have been investigated, which got many significant conclusions. However, the most researches are only focus on the sole GHG effect or sole LULCC effect, the relative importance of anthropogenic increases in GHG levels and LULCC in the climate change has not been thoroughly assessed. In addition, nowadays the most researches are only focus on the temperature and precipitation, the impact of GHG and LULCC on the other variables of surface hydrological budget has not been thoroughly investigated. Then, to investigate the impacts of Greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the surface temperature and surface hydrological budget, several numerical experiments were performed using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). In the first place, the impacts of increased Greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) on the surface temperature and its mechanism have been investigated; secondly, the relative importance of GHG and LULCC in the surface hydrological budget (Including the precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture) has been assessed. Finally, under different greenhouse gas concentration (GHG), the impact of Land use and Land Cover change on surface hydrological budget has been investigated. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) There is a significant difference between the impact of Greenhouse gas concentration and Land use and Land Cover change on the surface temperature. In generally, GHG play a dominant role in determining changes in surface air temperature, however, LULCC plays relatively a more important role than increased GHG concentration in diurnal temperature range over the notable land cover change regions. GHG plays a more important role in changing DTR in the high- latitudes regions of the North hemisphere, lead to a decrease of 0.6~1°C of DTR in the North America and Northerastern Europe. In contrast, LULCC play a dominant role in determining changes in DTR in the mid- latitudes and south Asia, no matter in the magnitude or value of the changes in DTR, the DTR is significantly decreased in the eastern North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia (the magnitude of reduction is exceed 1°C。The increase in greenhouse gas concentration leads to increase in both the minimal air temperature and maximal air temperature, so the magnitude of the variances is not significant. On the contrary, the influence of LULCC on daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature is significant asymmetry. For example, in the East Asian region, land use / land cover changes lead to the daily maximum temperature decreased, the daily minimum temperature increased significantly; in the South Asian region, the increase amplitude of daily minimum temperature was significantly larger than the increase of the daily maximum temperature. (2) The increased GHG concentrations led to significant increases in precipitation and evapotranspiration at mid- and high- latitudes during both seasons, In some regions, LULCC-induced changes can compensate or equal to GHG-induced changes in hydrological cycle, especially in evapotranspiration. In the humid region, GHG concentrations led a significant increase in evapotranspiration, in contrast, LULCC caused a weakening of the evapotranspiration in the humid region (2–6 mm month-1), further, the impact of LULCC is higher than the impact of GHG, so their combined effect is also shows a significant decrease in evapotranspiration over the humid region(1–2 mm month-1). In contrast, increased GHG concentrations play a dominant role in determining changes in soil moisture in the semi-arid region of Eastern Asia during the cold season(2–4 mm month-1), as well as changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff at high latitudes during both seasons. LULCC caused a weakening of the hydrological budget in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia, Europe, and the semi-arid region of North America. During both seasons, LULCC plays relatively a more important role than increased GHG concentrations in changing evapotranspiration and soil moisture in Southern Asia and Europe. (3) Under different climate background (e.g. under 1850 year concentrations of greenhouse gases and 2000 year concentrations of greenhouse gases, respectively, the same LULCC will leads significant differences in the surface water budget in the Europe. The GHG will significantly change the impact of LULCC on the hydrological budget over Eastern Europe. The result shows: under 1850 year concentrations of greenhouse gases, LULCC leads to an increases in precipitation (0.1–0.2 mm day-1), evapotranspiration (0.2–0.5 mm day-1), and soil moisture (0.2–0.5 mm day-1) in the central and east Europe. While under 2000 year concentrations of greenhouse gases, LULCC leads to a decreases in precipitation (0.1–0.2 mm day-1) in the central and east Europe. Under the increased GHG concentration, LULCC leads the atmospheric circulation from convergence to divergence, decreases the air temperature and moisture content, these changes play a dominant role in determining the net impact of LULCC on the regional hydrological budget. |
| 中文关键词 | 人类强迫 ; 气候模拟 ; 温室气体增加 ; 土地利用/覆盖变化 ; 区域气候效应 |
| 英文关键词 | anthropogenic forcing climate modeling increased greenhouse gas concentration land use and land cover change regional climate |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 气象学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院大气物理研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287857 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 胡祖恒. 温室气体和土地利用/覆盖变化对气温和水分收支变化的影响[D]. 中国科学院大学,2017. |
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