Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 水资源约束下的绿洲农业经济发展策略研究----以新疆焉耆盆地为例 | |
| 其他题名 | Research on the development strategy of oasis agricultural economy under the water resource constraints-A case study of YanQi Basin,XinJiang- |
| 加拉力丁·比拉力 | |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 石敏俊 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 摘 要 水资源是人类赖以生存和发展的基础，是战略性经济资源，是综合国力的有机组成部分，同时又是生态环境的控制因素，水资源的数量和质量日益成为决定区域经济、社会以及环境和谐发展的关键因素。地处欧亚大陆的新疆，特别是南疆，是典型的干旱半干旱区，潜在蒸发量大，降水量少，是我国缺水最严重的省份之一，“荒漠绿洲、灌溉农业”是其显著的特点，没有灌溉就没有新疆农业的发展。鉴于南疆地区干旱缺水、土地荒漠化严重等不利的自然条件，在目前绿洲经济发展中，改变传统落后的灌溉方式，发展节水农业，是南疆区域可持续发展的有力保障。本文以水资源约束为主线，以焉耆盆地为例，对绿洲经济发展进行研究，通过对水资源利用现状、承载力以及绿洲土地利用演化和农业发展驱动力的分析，探讨绿洲规模与农业经济发展的关系，为干旱区绿洲规模调控和生态风险管理提供科学参考。本文在论述干旱区绿洲的概念以及可持续发展理论的基础上，从焉耆盆地的自然资源、产业结构、土地利用状况和利用效率等方面，研究了焉耆盆地水资源特征、水资源利用现状以及水资源承载力，同时对绿洲土地利用演化及其驱动因素进行了研究。在考虑了绿洲规模与农业经济发展的基础上，对焉耆盆地农业发展的驱动力进行研究，通过BEM模型进行了4种情景模拟，从微观和宏观两个方面分析了农户经济行为对外部自然和社会经济条件变化做出的响应，从而探讨了水土资源利用变化的驱动因素及其作用机制。论文共分为七章，第一章为导论。主要介绍了论文的选题背景、意义以及论文的主要研究思路、技术路线和研究方法。第二章为理论基础与文献综述。通过查阅大量文献，对绿洲以及可持续发展理论进行了理论概述。对水资源承载力研究方面，绿洲经济发展研究和水资源承载力与绿洲经济发展相关研究进行了总结和论述。第三章为研究区域概况及水资源承载现状。分别从地理位置、地质地貌、气候特征、流域水文等方面分析了焉耆盆地的自然地理条件。从人口、经济、社会发展水平、产业结构的历史变化和现状评价方面描述了研究区社会经济发展特点及产业结构的演变。对焉耆盆地水资源概况、水资源开发利用现状进行分析，并对水资源利用效率进行评价，对研究区的水资源整体状况定量认知。第四章为水资源约束下焉耆盆地绿洲土地利用的动态演化。在介绍研究区概况、数据来源以及研究方法的基础上，通过遥感技术对1990、2000、2011年焉耆盆地遥感影像进行解译，分类得到近20年来焉耆盆地的土地利用/覆被变化情况以及景观格局变化数据。在水资源约束条件下，绿洲的发展需遵循节水性原则、生态效益原则和开放性原则。基于以上原则，在水资源约束条件下，焉耆盆地绿洲的发展可参考节水型发展模式、特色农产品生产加工模式以及社会经济-生态环境协调发展模式。第五章为绿洲规模与农业发展的关系分析。采用主成分分析法，对焉耆盆地耕地规模变化的影响因素进行分析，发现焉耆盆地耕地面积经历了一个动态的变化过程。耕地规模与地区生产总值之间的相关系数是0.9706，存在着高度相关性；第一主成分的贡献率达到76.94%，说明在焉耆盆地经济发展中耕地规模扩大具有举足轻重的作用。第六章为焉耆绿洲扩张驱动力与生态风险管理研究。首先对焉耆盆地内农业的资源优化配置进行分析，确定绿洲扩张的关键因子，揭示了绿洲农业“摊大饼”式的外延扩张的利与弊。应当遏制干旱区绿洲的过度扩张，绿洲农业发展应该从外延扩张提升为内涵增长。通过退耕还林还草政策，将地处绿洲边缘的退化耕地转换为天然植被带。对于绿洲内部，应当通过优化资源配置、调整农业种植结构等措施，提高单位水土资源生产力，增加经济利益，实现经济效益和生态效益的协调发展。基于对绿洲农业核心区焉耆县永宁镇和绿洲荒漠过渡带七个星镇93户农户的实地调研，得到了农业生产的投入产出参数以及区域人口、耕地利用等数据，构建了焉耆绿洲的生态经济模型（BEM模型），并设计了4种情景，通过情景模拟，分析了农户经济行为对外部自然和社会经济条件变化做出的响应，揭示水土资源利用变化的驱动因素及其作用机制。第七章为结论与展望。总结了本文的主要研究结论、政策建议及不足之处，并提出今后的展望。 关键词：水资源约束，经济发展，绿洲农业，BEM模型，焉耆盆地，新疆 |
| 英文摘要 | ABSTRACTWater resources are the basis of human survival and development as the strategic resources and the essential component of the comprehensive national strength and the controlling factors of ecological environment. The quantity and quality of water resources are increasingly becoming the key factor to determine the harmonious development of regional economy, society and environment in the oasis regions. Xinjiang is located in Eurasia, and is a typical arid area, especially the southern Xinjiang where there is a high evaporation, less rainfall. Furthermore, it is one of the provinces ofChina's most serious water shortage which is typical remarkable feature of "desert oasis - irrigated agriculture" area, and if there is no irrigation, there would be no agricultural development of Xinjiang. Irrigated agriculture is the remarkable characteristics of the oasis regions, where no irrigation means not to mention about any agricultural activity. Considering the adverse natural conditions that the dry climate, severe water shortage, serious land desertification in southern Xinjiang, and adverse natural conditions, which lead to shift of the traditional irrigation agriculture to water-saving agriculture that is a strong guarantee of sustainable development in southern Xinjiang. This paper studies the economic development of Yanqi basin with water resource constraints as the main line, and analyzes the current situation, carrying capacity and the driving force of Oasis Evolution, and discusses the relationship between the scale of oasis and the development of agricultural economy, and provides scientific reference for the oasis scale control and ecological risk management in arid area. Based on the concept and sustainable development theory, the paper studies the characteristics of water resources, the utilization of water resources in Yanqi basin, the utilization of water resources and the utilization efficiency of the Yanqi basin. Based on the scale of oasis and agricultural economy development, the driving force for development of agriculture in Yanqi basin is discussed, and through bio-economic model (BEM model) four type of scenario simulations are carried out, then the response of rural household economic behavior to the natural and social economic conditions is analyzed from two aspects of micro and macro analysis, and the driving factors and mechanism of the change of water and soil resources are discussed.This paper is composed by seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter introduced the research background, objectives, main ideas and research methods.The second chapter is the theoretical framework and literature review. The literatures about sustainable development and oasis agriculture were reviewed. It also includes the references about carrying capacity of water resources and the relationship between the water resources carrying capacity and the oasis economy.The third chapter introduced the natural conditions of the research site, YanQi basin of Xinjiang. The natural conditions of the YanQi basin include from the aspects of location and geographical features, climate characteristics, and watershed hydrology. This chapter also described the characteristics of social economic development and the evolution of industrial structure in the YanQi basin from population, economy, social development level, the historical change and present situation of industrial structure. The situation of water resources and water resources utilization in the YanQi basin was analyzed. The efficiency of water resources utilization was evaluated.The fourth chapter is the analysis of evolution of Oasis land use and the driving force of land use change in the YanQi basin. By interpreting the remote sensing images of YanQi basin in 1990, 2000, 2011 years, this chapter analyzed the changes of the land use / cover change and landscape pattern of the YanQi basin, obtained the land use / cover change and landscape pattern change in the YanQi basin in recent 20 years. The driving forces of land use / cover changes are analyzed from the aspects of population, agricultural development, water resources, changes of marsh land and urban expansion.The fifth chapter is the analysis of the relationship between the oasis scale and relationship of agricultural development. Principal component analysis method was adopted; the influencing factor of the change of cultivated land in the YanQi basin was analyzed. The features of long-term growth and dynamic changes in cultivated land scale in YanQi basin were revealed. The correlation coefficient between the area of arable land use and the oasis scale is 0.9706, and there is a high degree of correlation. The contribution rate of the first principal component is 76.94%. The population capacity, cultivated land area and the annual yield of grain in the YanQi basin in 2041 are predicted. It is found that the expansion of the cultivated land has a pivotal role in the economic development of YanQi basin.The sixth chapter is the study of the expanding driving force and ecological risk management of YanQi Basin Oasis. Firstly, the key factor of the oasis expansion is confirmed. The over expansion of the oasis must be stopped. It implies transition of agricultural development in the oasis region should be promoted from extensive expansion mode to intensive growth mode. To this end, the degraded cultivated land should be returned to forest or grassland through the Sloping Land Conversion Program (grain for green project). At the same time, for the oasis, it is important to raise the productivity of water resources and land through improvement of resource allocation and adjustment of cropping system. In the last part of this chapter, based on a field survey of 90 households in Yongning Town as represent of oasis central region and Seven Star Town as represent of oasis marginal belt, a bio-economic model (BEM model) is developed for the YanQi basin. The scenario simulation results revealed that the farmers' economic behavior was the response of the changes of the social economic circumstance, and explained the driving factors of the land use changes and water resources allocation.The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy implicationsThe main findings and conclusions of this paper were summarized. Policy suggestions were proposed for sustainable development of the oasis agriculture according to the research results. KEY WORDS: Water resource constraints; Economic development; Oasis agriculture; BEM Model; YanQi basin; Xinjiang |
| 中文关键词 | 水资源约束 ; 经济发展 ; 绿洲农业 ; BEM模型 ; 焉耆盆地 ; 新疆 |
| 英文关键词 | Water resource constraints Economic development Oasis agriculture BEM Model YanQi basin Xinjiang |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 创新管理 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287732 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 加拉力丁·比拉力. 水资源约束下的绿洲农业经济发展策略研究----以新疆焉耆盆地为例[D]. 中国科学院大学,2016. |
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