Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 气候变化下干旱区水资源脆弱性及其风险评估研究 ——以塔里木河流域为例 | |
| 其他题名 | Assessment of vulnerability and risk to water resources in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China under climate change ——A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin |
| 宁理科 | |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 夏军 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 气候变化下干旱半干旱区水资源问题是国内外关注的焦点和热点。气候变化背景下的干旱区水资源脆弱性与风险研究对干旱区水资源的合理规划，保证该地区水资源的可持续利用尤为重要。研究气候变化下干旱区水资源脆弱性与风险问题将为我国西北干旱区实现流域或区域经济发展与生态健康的可持续以及“一带一路”布局提供科学的水资源管理理论基础。本研究在分析西北干旱区降水、气温和潜在蒸散发的基础上，基于分布式时变增益模型（DTVGM），模拟分析未来水资源年代际变化，并基于暴露度、敏感性和抗压性，建立了干旱区的水资源脆弱性与风险研究的理论框架和方法体系，对西北干旱区的水资源脆弱性和风险进行评估，并预估未来不同排放情景下西北干旱区水资源的脆弱性与风险。以干旱区典型流域塔里木河流域为例，结合流域近期面临的主要水资源与水生态问题，研究塔里木河流域流域水资源脆弱性与风险及适应性调控对策。主要内容与结论如下：（1）分析了干旱区降水、气温以及潜在蒸散发量的演变趋势，构建大尺度水文模型，模拟分析干旱区未来水资源年代际变化特征。干旱区降水、气温均有显著的增加趋势，潜在蒸散发有显著的减少趋势，并且降水、气温和潜在蒸散发量均存在明显的年代际变化。不同排放情景下，水资源具有年代际变化的趋势，丰枯变化明显，均存在10年和30年左右的周期。在RCP 2.6情景下，西北诸河水资源在2040-2055年有较长时间的枯水期，而在RCP 4.5情景下，枯水期为2045-2070年，在RCP 8.5情景下，西北诸河水资源自2040s末期开始进入长时期的枯水期；三种不同情景下未来径流深序列总体趋势不同，RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5情景下西北干旱半干旱区未来90年径流深呈下降趋势，而RCP 4.5情景下西北干旱半干旱区未来90年径流深呈现先减小后增大的变化趋势。（2）建立年代尺度气候变化背景下干旱区水资源脆弱性评价关键指标体系，以干旱历时与干旱强度的双变量联合分布构建危险性，耦合暴露度建立了西北干旱区的水资源风险评估模型，并对该地区进行水资源脆弱性与风险评估。结果表明，整个西北诸河的水资源抗压状况并不乐观，水资源脆弱性较高，水资源风险形势严峻，其中河西内陆区、吐哈盆地小河、天山北麓诸河以及塔里木河源流区水资源状况表现为极高风险，亟需积极的适应措施减小水资源风险。（3）对未来RCP 2.6，RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5三种排放情景下干旱区水资源脆弱性与风险进行预估。未来水资源有年代际变化趋势，但用水量有明显增加。随着水资源的年代际变化，西北诸河各二级水资源分区水资源脆弱性与风险变化不同。在三种排放情景下，青海湖水系和阿勒泰山南麓诸河水资源脆弱性与风险有所下降，其他水资源分区并未得到缓解。采取节水措施后，水资源利用效率得到提高，水资源脆弱性和风险均得到一定程度的缓解，但河西走廊内陆河和天山北麓诸河水资源脆弱性与风险依然较高。 （4）针对塔里木河流域水资源问题，评估塔里木河流域近10年以及未来30年水资源脆弱性与风险，提出相应的适应性对策。在气候变化适应研究中，基于“无悔”原则，以最不利气候情景为基准，采用以“减地”和“节水”为主线的适应性措施。在最不利来水情景下，将耕地面积减少到2000年水平时，流域水资源风险降低13.31%。而采用不同的节水措施后，水资源脆弱性分别降低22.88%、26.73%和27.53%，水资源风险分别降低26.76%、22.50%和27.99%。 |
| 英文摘要 | The impact of climate change on water resources in arid and semi-arid regions is not only a global issue widespread concerned in the international society, but also a major strategic issue of sustainable development in China. Assessment of the vulnerability of and risk to water resources (VRWR) under scenarios of climate change is vital to water resources planning and management, and also is importance of water resources sustainability in the arid and semi-arid regions. The study of VRWR can give some theoretic advices to the sustainability of social economy development and ecological healthy, and to the Belt and Road Initiatives.In this study, firstly the variation of precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration was explored in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China (NWC), then the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) into the Community Land Model (CLM) were coupled to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution and decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff under difference Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. Next, a model coupling the water resources sensitivity, resilience, exposure and hazard to assess the VRWR was established. By using the model, the VRWR in the arid and semi-arid regions of NWC its spatial distribution was assessed at the scale of second-class water resource regions. After that, the VRWR in the next 10-30 years was analyzed based on the prediction of social economy and water resources. Finally, the Tarim River Basin (TRB) was took as a typical study area due to its serious water supply scarcity, the VRWR was assessed considering the exploration of arable land and inefficient water use, also the most unfavorable case was taking into account. The adaptive management was established for the water management in TRB and some countermeasures were promoted. The main achievements of this study are given as follows:(1) The trends of precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the arid and semi-arid regions were explored. The results shown that the precipitation and temperature have a significant increasing trends (p<0.01), and the potential evapotranspiration has a significant decreasing trends (p<0.01) in the past 60 years. The results also revealed that the precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration have the decadal variation characteristics. In addition, (2) The future runoff (2010–2100) was simulated for different RCPs emission scenarios by the coupled hydrological model. The spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed, and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis method. The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010–2100, whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario, with a slow increase after the 2050s. Additionally, the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale, indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods. The longest dry period was approximately 15 years (2040–2055) for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years (2045–2070) for the RCP 4.5 scenario. However, the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have predicts a long dry period starting from 2045. (3) An approach integrating hazard, sensitivity, resilience, exposure and risk was developed to assess the VRWR from climate change. Drought was regarded as the key hazard, with its frequency and severity defined using a surface humidity index. Exposure was quantitatively linked with indicators of population and social and economic characteristics using statistical and Geographical Information System (GIS) methodologies. Risk was defined as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, while vulnerability was treated as a function of sensitivity and adaptation. The results revealed the resilience was low, and the hazard was high. The assessment found that there was high vulnerability of and risk to water resources in the study area, especially in the areas of Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountai, Turpan-Hami Basin and Tarim River Basin.(4) The VRWR under different RCPs scenarios were predicted. With the water requirement increasing and the dedacal variations of water resources, the VRWR in the future had different trends under different RCPs scenarios. This was due to the relatively low adaptability and high exposure. The deficiencies in meeting agricultural and ecosystem demands will still exist, and the utilization ratio of water will also exceed 100%. Under the most unfavorable case, the water resources decrease and water consumption increase, the VRWR would likely be higher compared to the current situation and different RCPs scenarios. Thus, it would be prudent to reduce vulnerability of and risk to water resources in these basins through implementation of measures to increase adaptability and reduce exposure. After the water conservation measures were taken, the VRWR changed better except Hexi Corridor and northern Tianshan Mountain. (5) The VRWR of Tarim River Basin was assessment against the new water resources problem, and the corresponding adaptive measures were adopted. In the past 10 years, the VRWR of Tarim River Basin has increased. Under the RCP scenarios and the most unfavorable case, the the VRWR of Tarim River Basin will increase. According to the water resources consumption, adaptive management including cut down the arable land and water conservation measures under the most unfavorable case. After the adaptive management adopted, the vulnerability of water resources decreased 22.88%,26.73% and 27.53%, the risk to water resources decreased 26.76%,22.50% and 27.99%. |
| 中文关键词 | 年代际气候变化 ; 水资源脆弱性 ; 水资源风险 ; 干旱区 ; 适应性 |
| 英文关键词 | Decadal climate changes， vulnerability of water resources， risk to water resources，arid regions，adaptive management |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287648 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 宁理科. 气候变化下干旱区水资源脆弱性及其风险评估研究 ——以塔里木河流域为例[D]. 中国科学院大学,2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| [宁理科]的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| [宁理科]的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| [宁理科]的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
