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| 近50年中国降水变化的检测与归因研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Detection and attribution of the changes in precipitation over China during the last five decades |
| 马双梅 | |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 杨德刚 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 全球变暖使大气的持水能力增加，水循环过程受到影响，降水总量、频率、强度、概率分布函数、发生时间、持续时间和极值等特征会发生相应的变化。降水特征的变化通过影响旱涝灾害、水电站和城市排水系统，直接对社会产生重大影响。理解全球增暖背景下降水特征的变化不仅对气候变化研究十分重要，而且对水资源管理和农业活动也意义重大。同时，应对气候变化，需要开展降水变化检测归因方面的研究。中国是极易受气候变化影响的国家，经常遭受各种气候灾害的影响。然而，近50年中国降水特征的变化，尤其是降水特征变化的物理机制以及人为外强迫和自然强迫对降水特征的变化的相对贡献等问题尚未明晰。本论文首先基于降水观测资料，考察了近50年中国降水特征的变化；然后基于CMIP5历史模拟试验并使用最优指纹检测归因方法，分析了人为外强迫对降水变化的作用；同时基于CMIP5模式模拟结果，讨论了引起降水特征变化的物理机制。主要结论总结如下：一、近50年中国干湿季时间和极端干湿期的变化在1960?2013年，中国干湿季时间呈现出显著的变化。长江中下游地区和华北的湿季分别推迟和提前了一个月左右，该湿季时间的变化与东亚夏季风环流的变化有关。同时长江中下游的干季提前，使得该地湿季向干季的过度时间缩短。伴随干湿季时间的显著变化，干湿季降水频率和极端干湿期长度也出现了显著的变化。100°E以东，湿季降水频率呈现出空间一致的减少趋势，使年湿天数减少。东北和长江下游的干季极端干季长度的显著缩短以及南方地区湿季极端湿期长度的缩短，有助于减弱相应干旱和洪涝灾害发生的风险。在年和季节统计结果中，西南地区的湿天数显著减少，极端干期延长，因而利于干旱发生风险的增加。二、近50年中国降水谱结构的变化及其与全球温度的关系先对中国632个台站降水资料进行均一化处理，然后利用均一化处理后的新资料分析干天（P=0）、毛毛雨天（0 |
| 英文摘要 | Global warming increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus precipitation characteristics (amount, frequency, intensity, and probability distribution functions (PDFs), timing, duration, extremes) are expected to change. Changing precipitation characteristics directly affect society through their impacts on drought and floods, hydro-dams and urban drainage systems. An understanding of the changes in precipitation characteristics is not only important for climate research but also of great significant merit in the management of water resources and agricultural activities. Meanwhile, detection and attribution studies of precipitation changes are needed to deal with climate change. China is especially vulnerable to climate change and is frequently affected by a variety of climate disaters. However, during the last five decades, changes in precipitation characteristics over China, in particular the mechanisms responsible, and the individual contributions of greenhouse gases, other anthropogenic and natural factors to precipitation changes, receive less attention and need systematic examined. This dissertation firstly investigated the changes of precipitation characteristics over China during the last five decades using observation data sets, then the optimal fingerprinting detection and attribution method was applied to assssed the anthropogenic contribution to precipitation changes, based on the outputs of the CMIP5 models. Meanwhile, the possible mechanisms responsible for changes of precipitation were analyzed. The main conclusions are summarized as follows.1. Observed trends in the timing of wet and dry season in China and associated changes in frequency and duration of daily precipitationThe timing of wet-/dry-season exhibited signifint shift across the whole China during 1960?2013. The timings of wet season showed significant delaying rends over the middle and lower Yangtze River basins and earlier onset trends over northern China, with the rate up to month per 50-years, which is partly due to the changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation. Meanwhile, the timings of dry season over the middle and lower Yangtze River basins exhibited prominent earlier trends, combined with the delayed rends of wet season occurrence, resulted in a reduced transition period from wet season to dry season. Accompanying the pronounced shift of the occurrence time of wet-/dry-seasons, wet days (WD) and duration of extreme wet/dry spells (WS/DS) in wet-/dry-seasons also showed significant change. Predominantly negative trends of wet-season WD largely contributed to the deceasing annual WD in the regions east of 100°E. The shortening of extreme dry-season DS was evident over Northeast China and lower Yangtze River; while the decrease of extreme wet-season WS was observed over the southern China, and these changes may help to reduce the corresponding risk of drought and flood, respectively. Southwest China showed robust less WD and prolonging DS on both annual and seasonal basis, and thus may enhance the risk of drought in this region.2. Observed changes in the distributions of daily precipitation frequency and amount over China from 1960 to 2013Daily precipitation (P) records for 1960–2013 from 632 stations in China were homogenized and then applied to study the changes in the frequency of dry (P=0) and trace (0 |
| 中文关键词 | 降水特征 ; 变化 ; 检测 ; 归因 ; 人为强迫 |
| 英文关键词 | precipitation characteristic change detection attribution anthropogenic forcing |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 气象学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院大气物理研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287641 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 马双梅. 近50年中国降水变化的检测与归因研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2016. |
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