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| 中国植物功能型-生物群区对气候变化的响应 | |
| 其他题名 | Responses of Chinese Plant Functional Types and Biomes to Climate Change |
| 殷晓洁 | |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 周广胜 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 植被与气候的相互作用一直以来都是生态学研究的重要方面，也是全球变化研究的重要内容。开展中国植被对气候变化的响应评估，对科学认识气候变化可能带来的后果，提供合理的应对措施具有重要指导意义。 本研究基于最大熵模型，构建了中国植物功能型-生物群区与气候因子的关系，分析了1971~2010年中国生物群区(潜在)地理分布及其净第一性生产力动态，评估了各生物群区对气候变化的适应性和脆弱性，并基于“典型浓度路径”排放气候情景预估了2011~2040年中国植物功能型-生物群区的变化。主要结论如下： (1) 基于《中华人民共和国植被图(1:100万)》的植被数据，结合能量平衡方程、水分平衡方程及决定植物地理分布的气候机制给出了决定植被分布的6个气候因子，即年降水量、年辐射量、极端最低温、年均温度、最暖月平均温度和最冷月平均温度，采用最大熵模型构建了中国植物功能型地理分布与气候因子的关系，模拟的中国生物群区地理分布达Kappa一致性检验到“很好”水平。 (2) 1971~2010年期间，中国生物群区的分布格局基本不变。随着时间推移，生物群区出现了轻微的向北和向西推移趋势，各植物功能型及其构建的生物群区表现出不同程度的适应或轻度脆弱。各生物群区面积及其净第一性生产力总量的变化主要是由于北方针叶林、温带荒漠、高寒灌丛草甸、高寒草原和高寒荒漠的转变所致，即寒冷、干旱条件下的植被对气候变化敏感，它们的变化牵动着植被格局的变化。尤其在青藏高原西南部，温带荒漠草原表现出较高的拓展适应性使部分高寒类生物群区向温带荒漠草原转变。 (3) 未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，2011~2040年中国生物群区分布表现出明显的北移西扩，尤其反映在东北、内蒙古中东部、新疆、青藏高原、云南以及海南等地。温度增加使得中国植被净第一性生产力出现升高趋势。大部分生物群区在未来气候情景下表现出不同程度的脆弱。温带落叶阔叶林和温带草甸草原的适应性较强，其分布面积和总净第一性生产力均大幅增加。亚热带常绿阔叶林分布及其净第一性生产力变化较小，表现出轻度适应或轻度脆弱。热带季雨林和温带草甸草原表现出高的拓展适应性。北方针叶林、高寒草原和高寒荒漠的退化与近40年的变化趋势基本相同。 |
| 英文摘要 | The interaction of vegetation and climate has always been one of the most important topics of the ecology, and it is also an important content of global change research. The response assessment of vegetation to climate change can give a scientific understanding of the consequences of climate change, and it may bring and provide important guiding significance of suitable solutions. In this thesis, based on the construction of Plant Functional Types and Biomes of China (PFTs-BIOMEs) and the MaxEnt model, the respose of potential geographical distribution of vegetation in China and its NPP were analyzed during 1971 to 2010. While adaptability and vulnerability of vegetation to climate change was also evaluated in order to further investigate the changes of vegetation in China. Meanwhile, together with the newest emission scenarios from the “Representative Concentration Pathways”, the responses of Biomes in China were evaluated during 2011 to 2040. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: (1) With six climatic factors (mean annual precipitation, mean annual solar radiation, extreme minimum temperature, mean annual temperature, mean temperature of the warmest month and the coldest month) controlling the distribution of vegetation deduced from heat balance equation, water balance equation and ecophysiological mechanisms of plant geographic distribution, together with the vegetation data of The Vegetation Map of People’s Republic of China (1:1 000 000), the potential distributions of plant functional types were simulated by MaxEnt model. Then, a series of PFTs-BIOMEs of China were built. The Biomes simulation in China reached the level of “very good” in terms of Kappa values. Thus, the PFTs-BIOMEs pattern can be used in the response research of vegetation to climate change in China. (2) During 1971 to 2010, the overall distribution pattern of the biomes in China basically unchanged and appearred weak trends of moving northward and westward. And Chinese PFTs and biomes showed certain degree of adaptability or mild vulnerability as the time goes on. The changes of the area and NPP of Chinese biomes were mainly caused by the transformation of boreal coniferous forest, temperate desert, alpine meadow, alpine steppe and alpine desert into other biomes. That is to say, vegetations under the cold and drought conditions are sensitive to climate change. And their changes will result in the change of vegetation pattern. In the northwest of Tibet Plateau, larger area of the alpine biomes was transferred to temperate desert steppe, which showed rather good extension adaptability. (3) Under the future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, during 2011 to 2040, the overall distribution pattern of the biomes in China would appear obvious trends of moving northward and westward. The great changes would happen in many regions, especially in parts of northeast, central and easten areas of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang，Tibet Plateau, Yunnan and Hainan provinces. The increase of temperature might result in an overall increase of potential NPP in China. Most of the biomes would show to certain degree vulnerability. Temperate deciduous forest and temperate meadow would have adaptive performance. The distribution area and potential NPP of these two biomes would be both great increase. The sub-tropical broad-leaved evergreen forest would have stable distribution and potential NPP, and it would show mild adaptability or mild vulnerability under the future scenarios. While the tropical seasonal forest and temperature meadow would show good extention adaptability. The degeneration trend of boreal coniferous forest, alpine steppe and alpine desert in the future would have similar trend during recent forty years. |
| 中文关键词 | 气候变化 ; 最大熵模型 ; 生产力 ; 适应性 ; 脆弱性 |
| 英文关键词 | climate change MaxEnt model NPP adaptability vulnerability |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 生态学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院植物研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287629 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 殷晓洁. 中国植物功能型-生物群区对气候变化的响应[D]. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
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