Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 内蒙古潜在自然植被对气候变化的脆弱性评价 | |
| 其他题名 | Vulnerability assessment of potential natural vegetation to climate change in Inner Mongolia |
| 叶永昌 | |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 张新时 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 全球温度和降水正在发生着前所未有的变化，由此导致了内蒙古植被脆弱性的不断加剧。然而，关于植被对气候变化脆弱性认识与评价方法的缺乏严重地制约着气候变化背景下内蒙古植被适应性管理措施的制定，威胁着内蒙古植被的可持续发展。 为此，本研究基于植被地理分布的变化探讨了植被脆弱性评价方法，分析了植被脆弱性变化下的植被净第一性生产力(NPP)动态，为发展植被对气候变化脆弱性评价方法及内蒙古植被可持续发展对策制定提供依据。主要研究结论有： （1）明确了影响内蒙古潜在自然植被地理分布的气候因子。影响山地针叶林分布的主导气候因子为湿润指数(MI)、气温年较差(DTY)、最暖月平均温度(Tw)和夏季降水量(Psum)。影响草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原、草原化荒漠和荒漠分布的主导气候因子一致，均为湿润指数(MI)、夏季降水量(Psum)、春季降水量(Pspr)和最暖月平均温度(Tw)。 （2）1961-2010年期间内蒙古潜在自然植被分布发生了重大变化。山地针叶林和草原化荒漠面积分别增加20%和17%；草甸草原、典型草原和荒漠的面积基本稳定；荒漠草原面积减少52%。山地针叶林向草甸草原扩张以及典型草原向荒漠草原扩张的主要原因是降水增加引起的湿润指数增大；尽管荒漠区降水有所增加，但仍不足以影响荒漠分布面积变化，因而荒漠面积基本不变。 （3）内蒙古山地针叶林、草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原、草原化荒漠和荒漠显著地沿温度和降水梯度分布，相邻两种植被类型之间的年平均降水量临界值分别为：401mm、351mm、268mm、205mm和153mm，年平均温度临界值分别为：-4.5℃、0.5℃、2.9℃、4.4℃和7.0℃。 （4）与1961-1990年相比，未来气候情景下（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.0）山地针叶林、典型草原和荒漠草原的分布面积均呈减小趋势，草甸草原分布面积呈增加趋势；草原化荒漠的分布面积没有一致变化趋势；荒漠的分布面积则呈显著增加趋势。 （5）1961-2010年内蒙古潜在自然植被NPP呈下降(1961-1970)、增加(1971-1990)、再下降(1991-2010)的变化趋势。夏季降水量对植被NPP变化的解释率达73%，表明生长季降水量决定了内蒙古潜在自然植被NPP的大小。 （6）1966-2010年期间，山地针叶林的中度脆弱区域呈增加趋势，退化风险增加。草甸草原以轻度脆弱为主，但重度脆弱呈增加趋势。荒漠草原最为脆弱，重度脆弱呈快速增加趋势。典型草原、草原化荒漠和荒漠的脆弱性变化较小，反映出对气候变化具有较强的适应能力。 （7）与1961-1990年相比，未来气候情景下（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.0）山地针叶林和荒漠草原的分布区几乎全部表现为重度脆弱，草原化荒漠和典型草原的重度脆弱有所增加，草甸草原的脆弱性相对稳定，而荒漠则呈现快速扩展趋势。 |
| 英文摘要 | Global temperature and precipitation are undergoing unprecedented change, which led to the growing of vulnerability of vegetation in Inner Mongolia. However, due to the lack of understanding about vulnerability of vegetation and evaluation methods, it has severely restricted the development of adaptive management measures to climate change in Inner Mongolia, which has threatened the sustainable development of vegetation in Inner Mongolia. In this study, basing on changes in the geographical distribution of vegetation, we explore methods of vegetation vulnerability assessment, and analyze the dynamic of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) under vegetation vulnerability change. This research provides the basis for development about methods of vegetation vulnerability assessment and for making countermeasures of vegetation sustainable development under climate change. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) This research clearly indicates the impact climatic factors of the geographical distribution of potential natural vegetation. The dominant climatic factors determining the distribution of mountain forest are humidity index (MI), annual range of monthly temperature (DTY), the warmest monthly average temperature (Tw) and summer precipitation (Psum). The dominant climatic factors determining the distribution of meadow steppe, typical steppe, desert steppe, steppe desert and desert are unanimous. They are humid index (MI), summer precipitation (Psum), spring precipitation (Pspr) and the warmest monthly average temperature (Tw ). (2) During the 1961 to 2010 year, Inner Mongolia potential natural vegetation distribution has undergone major changes. Mountain coniferous forest and steppe desert area increased by 20% and 17% respectively. Meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert area are keep stability basically. Desert grassland area decreased by 52%. The expansion of mountain coniferous forest to meadow steppe and typical steppe to desert expansion are both caused by humidity index increasing with higher precipitation. Despite an increase in precipitation in desert region, it is still not enough to change the distribution area of desert, so desert area is basically unchanged. (3) The temperature and precipitation determining the transition among mountain forest, meadow steppe, typical steppe, desert steppe, steppe desert and desert with order has obvious gradient. The thresholds of average annual precipitation (P) were 401mm, 351mm, 268mm, 205mm and 153mm. The thresholds of annual average temperature (T) were -4.5℃, 0.5℃, 2.9℃, 4.4℃ and 7.0℃. (4) Compared with 1961-1990, under future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.0) the distribution areas of mountain coniferous forest, typical steppe and desert steppe show a decreasing trend. Meadow steppe distribution area shows an increasing trend. There is no consistent trend on distribution area of steppe desert. The distribution area of the desert has a significant increase. (5) NPP of potential natural vegetation shows a decline (1961-1970)-increase (1971-1990)-decline (1991-2010) character in Inner Mongolia during 1961-2010. Summer precipitation can explain 73% of the NPP changes, indicating that the growing season rainfall is the primary factor in the decision of NPP of potential natural vegetation. (6) During the 1966-2010 years, the moderate vulnerability area of mountain forest shows an increasing trend. Slight vulnerability is the main character of meadow steppe although severe vulnerability shows an increasing trend. Desert steppe is the most vulnerable steppe type, because severe vulnerability is quickly increasing. The vulnerability of typical steppe, desert steppe and desert have small changes, reflecting strong adaptive capacities to climate change. (7) Compared with 1961-1990, under future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.0) almost all the distribution areas of mountain coniferous forest and desert steppe show severe vulnerability. Severe vulnerability of steppe desert and typical steppe have increased. Vulnerability of typical steppe is relatively stable, while desert shows a rapid expansion trend. |
| 中文关键词 | 内蒙古 ; 潜在自然植被 ; 气候变化 ; 脆弱性 ; 评价 |
| 英文关键词 | Inner Mongolia Potential natural vegetation climate change vulnerability assessment |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 生态学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院植物研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287627 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 叶永昌. 内蒙古潜在自然植被对气候变化的脆弱性评价[D]. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
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