Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 气候变化对黑河流域上游主要水文要素的影响 | |
| 其他题名 | Impacts of Climate Change on Major Hydrological Process of the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China |
| 成爱芳 | |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 冯起 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 受自然气候的长期波动和人类活动的影响，全球气候变化已经是不争的事实。气候变化必然对生态系统、自然资源、粮食安全、极端气候事件、冰冻圈、水循环系统以及人类社会的经济发展产生一定的影响。气候变化所导致的最为显著的潜在影响是，它将会改变了全球和区域的水循环、河流系统以及径流的变化幅度。水是干旱区社会经济发展和生态稳定的限制因子。而干旱区生态水文过程极为脆弱，因而对气候变化则较为敏感。面对气候变化的事实，作为对气候变化影响较为直接的利益相关群体，科学评价当前并预估未来气候变化对各个自然环境要素及人类社会的响应，进而能够适时调整应对策略显得尤为重要。 本研究基于气象水文观测资料、CMIP5全球气候模式以及再分析资料等数据，利用多种时间序列分析方法，统计降尺度模型，水文模型等手段分析了当前和未来平均和极端气候影响下的水文响应，主要结论如下： （1）黑河上游气温和PET，径流和降水的趋势和突变呈现基本一致的变化特征，但气温和潜在蒸发对径流的影响存在时间超前和滞后效应。春季径流和夏季降水的增加对研究区1979年后径流的增加贡献较大。气温、降水和PET对径流的影响在1970s末期之后显著加强。径流与降水的变化较为同步，1960-2008年两者间存在显著的8年作用周期。1990s之后，PET对径流的影响存在滞后效应，径流主要受2年之前的PET影响，PET和径流的作用周期为6年，1990s之后两者的作用周期为4年。径流对降水较PET更为敏感。1980-2008年间，气候变化导致的径流变化占到总径流变化的56.59 %。 （2）研究区极端降水呈现显著增加的总趋势，极强降水和强降水增加速率较大，降水强度也在增大；1960–2011年极端降水呈现明显的波动增加趋势，并且1980s后期极端降水较1980s之前显著增加。日最低温和日最高温的高值和低值都呈现增大趋势；极端气温在夏、秋和冬季呈现较为一致的变化趋势，冬季极端高温指数每十年的变化速率比其他季节都高；极端气温显著增加年主要集中在1990s之后。1980s后期东亚夏季风减弱和西太平洋副高增强是黑河上游极端气候事件增多的主要原因。另外，南方涛动指数、多元ENSO指数和北方涛动指数也对极端气温增加有一定的影响。 （3）SDSM能够很好的模拟年和月降水和气温的基本趋势，对气温的模拟精度远高于降水，并对降水的模拟普遍略微偏低。降尺度的GCM模拟的月气温和降水与观测值间误差较小并且有很高的相关度，能够反映月气温和降水概率分布的整体特征；模式对月气温和降水均值的模拟值均偏低；模式虽然均能够反映气温的时间变化趋势，但对趋势量级模拟值偏低，而对于降水趋势和量级的模拟各模式模拟结果并不一致。几乎所有季节未来气温均较历史时期增高，不同情景下冬季平均气温均呈现增加趋势；秋季最高温平均百分比变化高于年和其他季节。黑河上游21世纪的近期和中期秋季降水相较于历史实验模拟结果呈现显著增加趋势，但夏季降水在近期、中期和末期均存在减少趋势。未来气候情景下冬季降水在本世纪末期相较于历史实验减少百分比大于20%。 （4）基于分位数图的偏差校正方法对于调整降水高值发生的月份的模拟值偏低的现象有了较大改善，同时通过对气温的偏差校正，使得模拟与观测的气温均值基本吻合。 21世纪近期RCP45情境下，CDD和CWD都存在显著的增加趋势；PRCPTOT、R10和SDII波动特征最为明显，均表现为在2024年前后达到研究时段的最低值。RCP85情景下，2016-2035年前期，大多数极端降水指数在增加，而后期则减少。21世纪近期，RCP45和RCP85情境下，4个季节最高温与最低温间的差值增大，因为气温将更加极端。 （5）RCP45情境下年平均径流变化波动性较强，并且线性趋势变化不明显；而RCP85情境下，年平均径流则呈现微弱的增加趋势。从未来年平均径流均值来看，年平均径流较历史时期在减少。不同情境下，2016-2035年间，潜在蒸发呈现显著的增加趋势。各情境下，潜在蒸发较历史时期增加百分比大于5 %。同时，几乎每一月的潜在蒸发均较历史时期有所增加。21世纪近期，黑河上游径流存在微弱减少趋势，而潜在蒸发增加趋势明显。因而未来20年，研究区水资源短缺形势在气候变化影响下将会更加严峻。 |
| 英文摘要 | It is certain that global climate change has occurred worldwide with the effect of long-term fluctuations of natural climate and human activities. Climate change will inevitable have great effects on ecological systems, natural resources, food security, climate extremes, cryosphere, water circulation system and the damage to human social living conditions. The significant potential consequences of climate change are alterations in global and regional hydrological cycles, changes in river regimes, and the increasing magnitude of global and continental runoff. Water resource is a key limiting factor for social and economic development and ecosystem stability in arid area. The regions are especially affected by climate change due to the fragile nature of their eco-hydrology, which is more sensitive to climatic change. Scientific assessment of the effects of current and projected climate change on natural environmental elements and human society is of great importance for stakeholder and policymaker. Hydrological response to current and projected mean and extreme climate have analyzed in this study by some time series analysis method, statistical downscaling model and hydrological model based on hydroclimatic observations, global climate model from CMIP5 and reanalysis data, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) Trend and abrupt change have shown some consistency for temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff and precipitation in the upper Heihe River basin. However, impacts of temperature and PET on runoff have displayed time lag to some extent. Both the spring runoff and summer precipitation have contributed more to increase in runoff after 1979. The effects of temperature, precipitation and PET on runoff have intensified since the late 1970s. Changes in rainfall and runoff were consistent with each other, and an 8-year periodicity was found during almost the whole observation. However, current runoff was mainly affected by PET with a lag of 2 years after the 1990s, and periodicities were detected with periods of four and six years. Changes in runoff were more sensitive to rainfall than PET, and increasing runoff during 1980–2008, induced by climate change, accounted for 56.59 % of the total change in runoff. (2) Extreme precipitation have shown statistical significant increasing trend, and the rate of increase for very wet day precipitation (R95p) and heavy precipitation is more large than the other indices. In addition, simple daily intensity index (SDII) has also increase. Precipitation extremes have revealed apparent volatility with increase, and more occurrences existed for them after the 1980s. Both the maximum and minimum value for daily maximum and minimum temperature have shown increasing trend. Temperature extremes have revealed consistent changing trends in spring, autumn and winter and the rate of changes for them is much larger than the other season. Obvious increase in temperature extremes were occurred after 1990s. East Asian summer monsoon index and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index have strong and significant negative/positive correlations with rainfall extremes, respectively. Both of them contributed to the increasing precipitation extremes after late-1980s in the upper reaches of Heihe River basin. (3) Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) can obtain good simulation result for trend in annual and monthly precipitation and temperature. However, much higher simulation accuracy has found for temperature than precipitation, and the output of the simulations for precipitation were slight low. Monthly temperature and precipitation derived from downscaled GCM were showed less prediction error and high correlations as compared with observations and the general characteristics of probability distribution in them can also be reflected. Simulations produced by climate model have shown lower value both in monthly temperature and rainfall. Although temporal trends can be revealed by nearly all the GCM, the simulation for the magnitude of trend is low. All the GCM can result in different trend and magnitude for precipitation. Projected temperature is increase nearly in all the season as compare with the output of historical. Mean monthly temperature for all the scenarios have shown increase in winter, and the percentage change relative to historical for maximum temperature in autumn is high than the other season. Projected temperature in winter in the end of 21st century is above 20 % relative to output of historical. (4) Low simulation in month with high precipitation has changed as the adoption of quantile mapping bias correction method. In addition, mean of temperature has nearly shown the same after bias corrected for it. Both consecutive dry (CDD) and wet (CWD) days have revealed increasing trend in the period of 2016-2035 for the scenario RCP45. The fluctuation characteristics for wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT), R10 and SDII were obvious, and all of them have reached the lowest value before and after 2024. Most extreme precipitation indices have increased in the earlier epoch of 2016-2035, but decrease in the later period for the scenario RCP85. The D-value between maximum and minimum temperature is greatly increase in all the season for all the scenarios, implying that there will have more extreme temperature in future. (5) Mean annual discharges were shown large fluctuation for scenario RCP45, and the linear trend for them were not statistical significance. However, they were revealed slight increase trend for scenario RCP85. Projected mean annual discharges were decrease relative to historical period for all the scenarios. Percentage change in PET during 2016-2035 as compare with the period has observations have increased above 5 %. In addition, PET was increased nearly all the month relative to it in 1986-2005. As considering the slight increase in runoff during 2016-2035, but the PET was apparent increase in the same period. Therefore, the situation will become serious for shortage in water resource with the changing in climate in the coming 20 years. |
| 中文关键词 | 黑河流域 ; CMIP5 ; 气候变化响应 ; 气候变化 ; 降尺度方法 |
| 英文关键词 | Heihe River basin CMIP5 Climate change impacts Climate change Downscaling methods |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287546 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 成爱芳. 气候变化对黑河流域上游主要水文要素的影响[D]. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
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