Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 河西内陆河流域社会-生态系统对冰川变化的脆弱性 | |
| 其他题名 | Assessment of Vulnerability of Social-ecological System to Glacier Change in the Hexi Inland river b |
| 杨圆 | |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 杨建平 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 以我国西部干旱区河西三大内陆河流域（石羊河、黑河和疏勒河）为典型研究流域，以社会-生态系统为研究对象，以冰川变化的影响为外部压力，基于关联性原则、全面性与科学性原则、可操作性与可比性原则，基于冰川变化的脆弱性定义及其构成脆弱性的三大要素：暴露度、敏感性与适应能力，，从自然系统、社会经济系统层面遴选了代表与反映绿洲系统对冰川变化影响的13个指标，构建了内陆河流域社会-生态系统对冰川变化的脆弱性评价指标体系，借助ArcGIS和RS技术手段，运用主成分分析法（PCA）和空间主成分分析法（SPCA），构建了绿洲系统对冰川变化影响的脆弱性指数模型，从流域与县域两种空间尺度定量评价了1995~2010年河西内陆河流域地区社会-生态系统受冰川变化影响的脆弱性，分析了脆弱性的动态变化与空间格局变化，并综合剖析了影响脆弱性的因素。通过社会调查方式，从总体、农户与政府部门人员两个层面，分析了公众对冰川变化及其可能影响的感知，剖析了公众感知的流域差异性与原因，对比分析了三大河流域公众对政府部门已实施应对水资源紧缺对策措施的效果与认可程度。 1. 流域尺度绿洲社会-生态系统对冰川变化的脆弱性评价 在流域尺度上，河西内陆河流域绿洲社会-生态系统对冰川变化影响的脆弱性具有明显的阶段性，1995~2004年的10年间，三大河流域受冰川变化的影响较小，脆弱性程度低，2004~2010年，冰川变化的影响逐渐显现，且程度越来越大，脆弱性亦显著增加。在三大河流域中，黑河流域社会-生态系统受冰川变化影响的脆弱性程度最大，其次是石羊河流域和疏勒河流域。在指标层面上，绿洲社会-生态系统对冰川变化影响的脆弱性主要取决于绿洲系统对冰川变化影响的暴露度与系统对冰川变化影响的敏感性；在准则层面上，暴露度是影响河西内陆河流域地区社会-生态系统脆弱性变化的最主要因素，其次是适应能力和敏感性。 2. 县域尺度绿洲社会-生态系统对冰川变化的脆弱性评价 暴露度河西内陆河流域社会-生态系统高度暴露于冰川变化的影下，中度以上暴露地区的比例高达61.9%。暴露度空间差异显著，总体上呈现由山前向下游降低的分布规律。具体到各流域，石羊河流域各县域的暴露度较低，除玉门市外，疏勒河流域县域的暴露度普遍较高，黑河流域地形独特，各县域暴露度差异较大。绿洲系统暴露度高，主要受系统内外部因素共同作用，经济快速发展与人口增长增加了绿洲系统本身对冰川变化影响的暴露度，而冰川变化及其对水资源的影响增大了流域绿洲所受的外部压力。 敏感性河西内陆河流域地区对冰川变化的影响敏感性低，但三大流域差异极大。石羊河流域对冰川变化的影响很敏感，其次为疏勒河流域，黑河流域对冰川变化的影响不太敏感。 适应能力河西内陆河流域对冰川变化影响的适应能力较高，极高、高以及中度三种类型的适应能力所占比例为61.91%。石羊河流域的适应能力总体偏低，疏勒河流域的适应能力中等，而黑河流域的适应能力较高。NPP与第三产业产值比重是影响适应能力的关键因素. 脆弱性河西内陆河流域社会-生态系统对冰川变化影响的脆弱性以中轻度脆弱为主，面积比例占52.38%，但局部地区脆弱程度极高。脆弱性空间差异显著，总体上各流域均呈现由山前向下游递减的分布规律。河西内陆河流域绿洲社会-生态系统对冰川变化影响的脆弱性是暴露度、敏感性与适应能力三者综合影响的结果，其中暴露度是主导因素，其次是适应能力和敏感性。 综合分析1995到2010年，河西内陆河流域绿洲社会-生态系统对冰川变化影响的脆弱性程度呈增大趋势，表现为微偏轻度脆弱－轻度脆弱－中度偏强度脆弱－极强度脆弱的变化形式。2010年脆弱程度最高，极强度脆弱的县域比例达到81%。具体到各流域，黑河流域的脆弱性程度偏高、其次为石羊河流域，最后为疏勒河流域。 3. 绿洲社会-生态系统对冰川变化的适应性 社会调查的结果表明：超过65%的受访者认为冰川减少了，从社会学的角度佐证了冰川明显消融萎缩的科学监测事实。三大河流域公众对冰川变化对流域水资源、农业生产、生态影响的感知存在空间差异性，这种差异性归因于三大河流域的地理位置、冰川分布与变化的空间差异性。在冰川变化背景下，公众对政府部门已实施应对水资源紧缺的对策措施的效果与接受程度不同。三大河流域公众均认可种植业结构调整与加大宣传力度提高公众节水意识这两项措施，且认为实施效果好；发展设施农业措施的实施效果好，已得到石羊河和疏勒河流域老百姓的认可与接受；石羊河和黑河流域的公众认为实施推广节水技术措施的效果好；退耕还林还草措施在黑河流域实施普遍且效果好；水票制措施在疏勒河流域实施的最好，黑河一般，疏勒河较差。 |
| 英文摘要 | Three sub-basins (Shiyanghe, Heihe and Shulehe river basins) of the Hexi Inland river basin were chosen as study areas in this paper. Taking the Social-ecological System of this region as the research object, the assessment indicators’ system of vulnerability to glacier change was established on the basis of the relevant principle, the overall-rational and scientific principles and the operable and comparable principles. In the process, exposure, sensibility and adaptability were regarded as the criterions. By means of the technologies of ArcGIS and RS, the vulnerability of the region to glacier change was assessed applying the Principal Component Analysis and the Spatial Principal Component Analysis. Through watershed scale and county scale, The Vulnerability of social-ecological system affected by glacier change is evaluated. Finally, the public perceptions on glacier changes and its possible influences were analyzed through the ways of questionnaire survey and face-to-face interviews from two aspects of the whole, farmers and governmental officials. The discrepancies and reasons of the public perceptions among the three basins were also revealed. The authors analyzed comparatively the implementing effect and the degree of recognition of the public on adaptive measures of water resources shortage, which were implemented by local government. 1 Dynamic Variation of theHexi Inland river basin’s vulnerability Before 2004, The Hexi Inland river basin which is little affected by glacier change has a low vulnerability. Later, as the accelerated shrinking of the glacier, the vulnerability increase rapidly. During 1995-2010, the glacier change has been the biggest influence on Heihe river basin, the second is the Shiyang river basin, Shulehe river basin is in the last place. In recent 15 years, the vulnerability of Social-ecological System in the Hexi Inland river basin to glacier change presents an increasing tendency, accompanying the apparently periodical characteristics. 2 Assessment of the Hexi Inland river basin’s vulnerability under the influence of glacierschange In the Hexi Inland river basin, the exposure to glacier change is higher than mean level. Three types of exposure accounted for 61.9%, which include higher exposure, high exposure and moderate exposure. It means that the Hexi Inland river basin is highly exposed under the influence of glacier change, and it presents the trend that exposure is reduced from piedmont to downstream. Shiyanghe is lower exposure degree of each county; Shulehe is generally high exposure of each county except Yumen county. In Heihe river basin, the distribution of the exposure is greatly different in space because of unique landform. The exposure depends on comprehensive effect by the natural system and social system. The glacier melt water supply rate and region gross domestic product are the main factors affecting the exposure, of which the both play a dominant role. The sensibility of the Hexi Inland river basin to glacier change is generally lower, but the three river basins are very different. Shiyanghe river basin is sensitive to the influence of the glacier change, followed by the shulehe river basin. The influence of the heihe river basin to glacier change is not too sensitive. Water consumption for per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) is mostly sensitive to glacier change. In terms of adaptability, the adaptability of the Hexi Inland river basin to glacier change is high. The proportion of higher, high and moderate adaptability is 61.91%. From different river basin, the adaptability of shiyanghe is low, the adaptability of shulehe is secondary, and higher adaptability of Heihe river basin. The analysis shows that the adaptability depends mostly on ecological restoration ability and appropriate industrial structure adjustment. The difference of spatial distribution and time distribution are obvious in Hexi Inland river basin. Each river basin generally presents the rule that vulnerability is diminishing from piedmont to downstream. In the period of 1995~2010, the degree of vulnerability showed an increasing trend affected by glacier change. The degree of vulnerability of the Heihe is higher than other river basins; the second is Shiyanghe; Shulehe is in the last place. The high vulnerability mainly results from the high exposure and the low adaptability to glacier change. 3 Adaptability Evaluation of Social-ecological System to Glacier Change in Hexi Inland river basin The results showed that more than 65% of respondents considered the local glaciers apparently decreased. This evidences the scientific facts of glacier shrinkage in the view of sociology. Spatial differences of the public perceptions in the three basins were found on the water resources, agricultural production and ecological impact, which were attributed to geographical location, glacial distribution and spatial heterogeneity of glacier change. There are differences for the public perceptions on the implementing effects and recognition degree about some countermeasures in the three basins. Cropping structure adjustment and water-saving measures are considered feasible and good in the three basins. The facility agriculture measure has been accepted by the public in Shiyanghe and Shulehe river basins. Farmers considered that water-saving technology is good for them in the Shiyanghe and Heihe river basins. The grain for green is implemented universally and has a positive effect. The implementation effect of water-ticket system is considered best in Shulehe river basin, the second in Heihe river basin, but bad in Shiyanghe river basin. |
| 中文关键词 | 河西内陆河流域 ; 冰川变化 ; 社会-生态系统 ; 脆弱性 |
| 英文关键词 | the Hexi Inland river basin vulnerability assessment Glacier change the Social-ecological System comprehensive evaluation |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287531 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 杨圆. 河西内陆河流域社会-生态系统对冰川变化的脆弱性[D]. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| [杨圆]的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| [杨圆]的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| [杨圆]的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
