Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 西北地区小麦玉米单产与气候变化的相关性分析 | |
| 其他题名 | The analysis of correlation between wheat and maize yields and climate change in Northwest China |
| 周焕 | |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 屈建军 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 在全球变暖的大背景下，气候对于农业生产的影响受到广泛关注，我国西北地区气候干燥，生态环境脆弱，自然灾害频发，农作物对于气候的改变显得更为敏感。因而研究气候变化对西北地区主要粮食作物小麦玉米的影响，对于实现该区域粮食产量的稳定增长，保证粮食安全，具有十分重要的意义。通过气候生产潜力模型，一阶差分时间序列，空间插值等方法分析1961-2010年西北地区气候数据与小麦玉米产能之间的关系，再根据中科院敦煌戈壁荒漠研究站的观测数据，将极端干旱区域的敦煌绿洲作为例子，研究该地小麦玉米产能对于气候的响应。最后依据前文所得构建产能与气候之间的拟合方程，通过区域气候模式RegCM4输出未来气候数据，进而对西北五省2011-2030年的小麦玉米产能进行评估。文章得到的初步结论如下： 1）1961-2010年，西北五省小麦玉米产能大幅增长，生长季内平均温度均呈现出升高趋势，而降水量则不同，小麦生长季内陕西，甘肃和宁夏降水量减少,青海和新疆降水量增多。玉米生长季内甘肃，宁夏降水量减少，陕西，青海与新疆则增多。西北地区的气候生产潜力主要由降水量和蒸散量所决定，降水的不足可以通过人工灌溉来弥补，因而NPP的值并不能准确反应作物产能的上限。分析有效灌溉面积及其占耕地总面积之比的变化趋势可以发现，西北五省有效灌溉面积平稳甚至减少的趋势对作物产能快速增长的贡献并不明显，以新疆为例，水利基础设施的建设，机械化程度的提高，规范化管理的落实，新技术的应用，劳动力素质的增长，现代化大农业体系的建立对作物产能的迅速提高起到重要作用。 2）使用一阶差分时间序列方法驱除非气候因子的影响，分析作物产能与气候要素之间的关系，结果显示：随着日照时间的增多，西北五省小麦的产能均增加，甘肃，宁夏的小麦产能与温度呈正相关，陕西，新疆则相反。同时，陕西宁夏两省的小麦产能与降水量呈负相关，新疆则相反。另外，温度升高，甘肃宁夏的玉米产能减小，日照时间增加，陕西的玉米产能减小。当生长温度处于最适温度或略低于最适温度时，作物的产能达到最高，随着温度超出最适温度，作物产能逐步减少。无论小麦还是玉米，超过30?C的生长期温度累积量增加，均出现明显的减产。由此可见，高温对于西北地区小麦玉米产能的影响是非常显著的，极端高温会加速作物的退化，这一作用比生长季平均温度的升高导致的影响更为明显。 3）以敦煌地区为例，1971-2005年间，小麦玉米产能平均每年增长72.4kg?hm-2和214.9 kg?hm-2。与此同时该地区的平均温度及日照时间也有着不同程度的增加，降水量则呈现相反的趋势，总体上出现了干旱程度加剧，生态环境更为敏感脆弱的状况。气候生产潜力模型显示敦煌的净初级生产力极低，这是由于该地区年降水量不足50mm而蒸发量却超过2000mm，在自然状况下，作物几乎无法存活，因而该地的农业生产需要科学化的灌溉与规范化的管理。敦煌绿洲地处沙漠边缘，风沙活动强烈，一年中输沙势通常在春夏季较大而秋冬季较小，从空间分布上看，外围区域的输沙势要明显大于靠近城市区域。分析输沙势与作物产能关系后发现，敦煌地区输沙势每增大1VU，小麦产能减少25.6 kg?hm-2。小麦产能与生长季温度及输沙势负相关，玉米产能则随生长季日照时间和30℃以上的积温值增加而减少，此外降水量的增多对于玉米产能起着积极作用。 4）在已有的分析基础上，通过逐步回归和最优化算法来拟合包含产能和气候要素的方程，再通过区域气候模式RegCM4输出未来气候数据，代入拟合方程评估未来作物产能。结果显示2011-2030年间西北五省的小麦玉米产能还将保持增长的总体趋势，小麦产能新疆最高甘肃最低，玉米产能青海最高甘肃最低，此外,气候要素在未来的某些年份中对作物产能造成了显著的不利影响。 |
| 英文摘要 | Under the background of global warming, the effects of climate on agricultural production had been widely concerned.The climate was dry,the ecological environment was fragile and the natural disaster was frequent in Northwest China,so crops were more sensitive to the climate.Therefore the research of the climate impact on wheat and maize yileds in Northwest China was meaningful for realizing the steady growth of production and ensuring food security.Using the climate productivity potential model, first-difference time series and spatial interpolation method to analyze the relationship between wheat(maize) yiled and the climate data during 1961 to 2010,then analyzed the response of wheat(maize) yield to the climate in Dunhuang oasis where was extremely dry based on the observation data from Dunhuang gobi desert research station,CAS.Finally,built the equations of relationship between climate and yield,to estimate future wheat(maize) yield variability using the output of the RCMs- Regiona l Climate Mode(RegCM4）. The preliminary conclusions of this article are as follows: 1) Wheat and maize yields had a substantial growth during 1961 to 2010 in five Northwestern provinces,the growing season temperatures were all increased,but precipations were different.Precipitations showed a trend of decrease in Shannxi, Gansu and Ningxia during wheat growing season while precipitations increased in Qinghai and Xinjiang. In maize growing season, precipitations showed a trend of decrease in Gansu and Ningxia while Shannxi, Qinghai and Xinjiang were increasing. The climate production potential in Northwest China was mainly determined by the precipitation and evaporation, lack of precipitation could be offset by irrigation, so NPP value could not accurately response the ceiling of crop yields.We could get the conclusion through the effective irrigation areas and the percentage of effective irrigation areas account for the cultivated land,the decreasing trends of the effective irrigation areas did not have obvious effection on the rapid growth of crop yields.For example,construction of water infrastructure, improvement of mechanization, implementation of standardized management, application of new technology, growth of labor force quality and establishment of a modern agricultural system played important roles for the rapid growth of crop yields. 2)Using the first-difference time series method to drive out the impacts of non-climate factors,analyzing the relationship between yields and climate factors. The results showed that with the increase of sunshine hours,the yields of wheat in the five provinces could be all increased.The yields of wheat were positively correlated to the temperature in Gansu and Ningxia,while Shaanxi and Xinjiang were opposite.Meanwhile,the yields of maize were negatively correlated to precipitation in Shannxi and Ningxia,Xinjiang was opposite.In addition,when the temperature rised,the yields of maize could be reduced in Gansu and Ningxia.When the sunshine hours increased,the yields of maize reduced in Shaanxi.When the temperature was in optimum value or below it,the crop yield reached the highest value, when the temperature exceeded the optimum temperature, crop yield gradually reduced.While the cumulative amount of temperatures which exceeded 30?C in growing season increased,both yields of wheat and maize were reduced,we could find that extreme heat would accelerate the degradation of the crops,that was more apparent than the influence caused by the increasing of average temperature. 3) During 1971 to 2005,wheat and maize yields had average 72.4kg?hm-2 and 214.9 kg?hm-2 growth each year in Dunhuang.At the same time,the average temperature and sunshine hours also had increased trends, but the precipitations were opposite,drought aggravated in Dunhuang and the climate potential productivity was very low,due to the low precipitation and high evaporation capacity,crops were almost impossible to survive under the natural conditions, so scientific irrigation and standard management were needed. Dunhuang oasis was located in the edge of the desert where had a strong sandstorm activities,the drift potential was higher in the spring and summer,and in the spatial dimension,the drift potential was significantly higher in the external of the oasis than the areas close to the city.When drift potential increased 1VU,the wheat yield reduced 25.6kg?hm-2.Wheat yield was negatively correlated to the temperature and drift potential.When the GDD30 and sunshine hours increased,the yield of maize decreased.What's more,precipitation had positive effection on the maize yield. 4) According to the results of analysis above,using the stepwise regression and optimization algorithms to get the equations of yields and climate factors,then output the future climate data through RegCM4 and estimate the future crop yields.The results showed that yields of wheat and maize would maintain the overall trend of growth from 2011 to 2030,Xinjiang would have the highest wheat yields and Gansu would have the lowest,Qinghai would have the highest maize yields when Gansu would be lower.In some years,climate factors would cause negative effection on the crop yields. |
| 中文关键词 | 气候变化 ; 西北地区 ; 小麦玉米产能 ; 敦煌 ; 风沙 ; 高温 ; RegCM |
| 英文关键词 | climate change Northwest China yields of wheat and maize Dunhuang sands blown by the wind high temperature RegCM |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 防灾减灾工程及防护工程 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287527 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 周焕. 西北地区小麦玉米单产与气候变化的相关性分析[D]. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
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