Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 甘肃省产业用水特征及影响因素的时空差异分析 | |
| 其他题名 | Analysis on Industrial water consumption characteristics and its driving factors temporal-spatial differences in Gansu Province |
| 李丽莉 | |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 肖洪浪 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 摘 要 产业部门尤其是三次产业部门是区域社会经济的主要生产载体，也是某一区域国民经济关键指标核算的内容；从水资源利用角度，三次产业是区域社会经济系统用水的主体部门。2013年，全国仅第一、第二产业用水占总用水量的86%，31个省、市（自治区）第一、二产业用水占总用量的平均值为84%，全国第一、二产业、居民生活三部门用水量合计占总用水量的98.29%，31个省市三部门用水占比均值为97.63%。因此，分析特定区域三次产业用水特征及影响因素的时空差异特征是揭示某一区域社会经济系统与水资源系统相互关系的关键环节。甘肃省地处我国西北干旱内陆区，是资源性缺水问题突出、经济欠发达的省份之一。系统认识甘肃省水资源利用现状，并分析省内三次产业用水特征、用水影响因素及时空差异特征，有助于准确认识干旱区省份国民经济主要生产性部门用水的变化特征、用水驱动因素，以科学描述一定时空范围内水资源和社会经济系统重要用水主体之间的内在联系，阐明社会经济用水过程中各种水问题产生的重要机理。 本论文在对甘肃省近20年来用水现状分析认识的基础上，借助水资源投入产出分析、全要素分解模型、层次聚类及灰色预测模型方法，分析了甘肃省产业用水变化特征，在对影响产业用水关键因素进行分解分析的基础上，定量分析了近20年来甘肃全省、以及14个地州市各影响因素的时间、空间分异特征；最后对未来5-10年甘肃省三次产业用水量、用水强度进行预测。主要研究结论如下： （1）近20年来甘肃省总用水量在116.9～123.08亿m3之间波动，用水总量基本稳定的基础上以年均0.25%的速度小幅小幅上升。产业之间，第一产业用水占总用水量的81%，低于西北一产用水比重平均水平的7.72个百分点，高出全国17.93个百分点；第二产业、第三产业用水量比重分别高出西北平均水平5.42、2.18个百分点，低于全国12.03、5.65个百分点。用水强度，甘肃省地区生产总值（GDP）、三大产业万元产值的用水量20年来呈持续下降趋势，其中第一产业用水强度下降速度低于第二、三产业下降速度。从空间特征看，全省用水总量中内陆河流域地区用水占64.77%，黄河流域、长江流域地区分别占33.32%、1.91%。 (2) 借助水资源投入产出模型，计算了1997年、2002年、2007年甘肃省国民经济三大产业的用水投入系数、用水产出系数、以及用水乘数效应系数，并在此基础上，对甘肃的第二产业内部细分部门的投入产出系数进行类似分析。结果表明：从用水投入水平看，第一产业在生产万元最终产品时所需要的自然形态的水资源量在10年间下降1388.75 m3，第二、第三产业分别减少112.14 m3、58.1 m3；用水产出水平看，第一产业使用每立方米水的产出10年间增加3.13元，第二、三产业分别增加265.94元、172元，三次产业单方水产出水平的变化趋势差异较大；从用水乘数效应看，第二产业每增加单位用水量引起整个社会经济系统增加用水量的乘数效应（用水投入乘数）呈增加趋势，而第一、第三产业呈减少趋势。同时第一产业每增加单方水而引起整个经济系统最终产出价值量的倍数效应（用水产出乘数）大于第二、第三产业引起倍数效应，充分说明了以农业为主的第一产业在国民经济体系中的基础性地位，第一产业用水对整个产业系统的用水带动力大于其他部门。 (3) 通过构建甘肃全省、14个地州市产业用水的全要素分解模型，分析了区域经济总量增长、产业结构调整、用水强度变化3个关键因素对产业用水的影响程度，并计算出全省、14个地州市3因素各自的贡献率。结果表明：甘肃全省及14地州市在3个影响因素的效应类型较为一致，经济总量增长对产业用水体现为增量效应，区域产业结构调整及用水强度变化起减量效应。其中20年间经济增长拉动产业用水量变化均值为16.52亿m3，产业结构及用水强度20年影响产业用水的效应均值分别为-14.01亿m3、-2.56亿m3，用水强度变化的影响程度最小。 从影响因素在14地州市的聚类结果看，酒泉、武威、张掖3个典型的绿洲农业区3个因素的影响程度均为强或较强，其中酒泉市3个因素均为强驱动，张掖、武威市的产业结构、用水强度为较强驱动。兰州市、白银市作为甘肃省经济增长的中心带动地区，3个因素呈现了中等或较强的影响程度，其中兰州市的产业结构效应为较强带动类型。一方面说明兰州、白银市在经济结构调整、用水强度的变化体现了较为平缓的变化过程，另一方面说明兰州、白银经济的发展对水资源利用的依赖程度低于河西内陆河流域的绿洲农业区；3个因素的效应值在其余地州市的效应类型均为弱驱动，主要集中在省内中东部黄土高原地区及河西地区的工业城市（金昌、嘉峪关），主要为雨养农业或典型的工业基地城市。 （4）最后，通过构建产业用水的灰色预测模型GM（1.1），预测到未来5-10年（2014~2025年）甘肃省产业用水总量、用水强度的变化趋势。甘肃省用水总量在2020年、2025年将分别达到124.79亿m3、125.77亿m3，仍会以0.25%的年均增速呈现小幅增长趋势；三次产业用水的变化趋势看，预计第一产业用水量约以0.01%的年均速度呈小幅增长趋势，而第二、第三产业用水量分别约以1.02%、0.28%的年均变化速度呈减少趋势。三次产业用水强度仍将持续下降，其中第一产业年均下降6.69%、第二、三产业年均下降8.38%、11.91%，其中第一产业下降幅度小于GDP用水下降幅度，而第二、三产业均大于GDP用水下降幅度。 （5）基于以上用水特征及影响因素的定量分析结果，论文最后结合甘肃省是全国首个循环经济试点省份、也是全国重要的生态安全屏障区的重要机遇，提出将循环经济理论的3R原则引入到产业用水领域，结合甘肃省循环农业、循环工业基地建设，在不同产业部门的用水环节实现水资源利用的减量化、再利用和再循环的产业节水3R目标。 |
| 英文摘要 | Industry sectors, especially three major industries are the main productive carrier in the regional social and economic activities also are the key economic indicators of national economic accounting. From the point of view of the industrial water consumption, the three major industries are the predominate sectors consuming water resources of the regional social and economic system. In 2013, the percentage of the primary industry, secondary industry water consumption, accounts for 86% of the total water consumption in China, and 31 provincial districts (autonomous regions, municipalities, directly under the central government) average percentage value account for 84% of their regional total water consumption. And that the percentage of the primary industry, secondary industry, residents living water consumption together accounts for 98.29% of the total water consumption, and 31 provincial districts’ average value is 97.63% in China. Therefore, it is the key issue to study the characteristics and influencing factors of the industrial water consumption, and their temporal and spatial difference feature in a specific region and it is indispensable to reveal the key relationship between the regional social-economic system and water resources system. Gansu province is located in the northwest arid region of China, is the seriously lack of water resources simultaneously one of the less developed provinces. Taking the industrial water consumption in Gansu province as the studying area, and understanding the difference of three major productive industries water consumption, and the temporal-spatial characteristics of the influencing factors contributing to the variation characteristics of water consumption in arid-region province, which is helpful understanding the changing accurately characteristic of the main productive industrial water consumption, and describing the relationship between social-economic system and water resource system, and for clearing the mechanism resulting in the key water issues in the process of social-economic water consumption. This paper based on the analysis of the current situation of water consumption in Gansu province for 20 years, with the water resource input-output analysis model, factors-decomposition model, the hierarchical clustering method and grey forecasting model, analyzed the changing characteristic of the major industrial water consumption and obtained the influencing levels of the key factors in Gansu province and its 14 II administrative cities. At same time, it forecasted the trend of the three major industries water consumption in the future 5-10 years in Gansu province, and their water consumption intensity. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In the past 20 years(1994~2013), the total water consumption in Gansu province fluctuated between 116.9~123.08×108 m3, with the annual increasing rate of 0.25%, the total water-consumption amount keep stabile and then increased slightly. The percentage of the primary industry water consumption is 81% of total water consumption, it is lower 7.72 percentage points than the average level of the northwest provinces, but higher 17.93 percentage points than the national level; The percentage from the secondary industry, tertiary industry water consumption in Gansu province is higher average level in northwest provinces respectively 5.42、2.18 percentage points, but is lower than 5.65、12.03 percentage points than the national level. As for water-consumption intensity, the amount of water consumption by per unit GDP, three major industrial output values showed a declining trend, in 20 years, in Gansu Province. And among them, the primary industrial water consumption intensity decreased rate below the secondary, tertiary industry one. In the aspect of spatial characteristics, the inland river basin area water consumption accounts for 64.77% of the provincial total level, and the Yellow River and Yangtze River Basin area for 33.32%, 1.91% respectively. (2) With the use of water resource input-output model, the paper calculated out the different water-consumption coefficient of the three major industries (Water input coefficient、water output coefficient and the multiplier effect coefficient) in 1997, 2002, 2007, in Gansu province, and then extracted the secondary industry (the leading industry department), analyzed the sub-divisive sectors in secondary industry with the same type water consumption input and output coefficients. The results showed that: as for the water input coefficient, the amount of water consumption input for the per unit final productive value from the primary industry decreased 1388.75 m3 during 10 years, and from the secondary, tertiary industry respectively reduced by 112.14 m3 , 58.1 m3. As for water output level, the primary industry per cubic meter water output level increased 3.13 Yuan, but the secondary, the tertiary industry increased 265.94Yuan, 172Yuan respectively during 10 years. So, the changing trend of three major industry sectors’ output level showed large difference. For the multiplier effect of the water consumption, the multiplier effect of the secondary industry showed an increasing trend, which have proved that each additional unit water consumption of the secondary could cause the whole social-economic system water consumption’ increasing (water input multiplier) , and the water input multiplier from the primary, tertiary industry showed a decrease trend. At the same time, the primary industry has the higher water output multiplier effect, which indicated that the primary industry increasing per unit water consumption caused the multiplier effect of the final-output value of the whole economic system is greater than the secondary, the tertiary industries’ one. Which demonstrated the primary industry is foundational industry among the industrial system, and its water consumption has the greater influence than the other industrial sectors. (3) With the factor decomposition model of industrial water consumption, analyzed the influence level of regional economic growth, industrial structure adjustment and water consumption intensity changing in Gansu Province and its 14 II administrative cities. And calculated the contribution and their ratio of the above factors, the results showed that: there is the similar effective type of the 3 factors between Gansu and its 14 II administrative cities, that regional economic growth reflects the incremental effect, and change of regional industrial structure adjustment and water consumption intensity reflects reductive effect. In the past 20 years, the economic growth results in the incremental average value was 16.52×108m3 for industrial water consumption, the reductive effect of the industrial structure and water consumption intensity were -14.01×108m3, -2.56×108m3 respectively, the changing the water consumption intensity has the minor effect. From the clustering results, among the 14 II administrative cities, Jiuquan, Wuwei, Zhangye city, 3 typical oasis agriculture area in Gansu showed the strong or relatively strong effect degree of 3 factors, and Jiuquan City has the strongest effect degree with 3 factors. Zhangye, Wuwei City, the industrial structure adjustment, water consumption intensity is relatively strong effect degree. Lanzhou and Baiyin City, is the center area driving the economic growth in Gansu province, 3 factors showed moderate or strong effect, and the effect of industrial structure in Lanzhou city is the strong driving type. On the one hand, Lanzhou and Baiyin City have the more gentle process changing both with the industrial structure adjustment and water consumption intensity. On the other hand, in Lanzhou, Baiyin, there is lower dependence on the water consumption than in Hexi inland river basin with the oasis agricultural development. Finally, the rest of the 14 II administrative cities showed the weak-drive effect mainly located in the Loess Plateau and inland basin area industrial cities (Jinchang, Jiayuguan) in middle-eastern area of Gansu province, they are the rain-fed agriculture or typical industrial base cities. (4) Finally, by the GM (1.1), grey prediction model, it predicted the changing trend of total industrial water consumption and its intensity in future 5-10 years (2014~2025 years), in Gansu Province. Total amount of water consumption in Gansu province in 2020, 2025 will reach 124.79×108m3, 125.77×108 m3, will grow slightly by the average annual growth rate of 0.25%. As for three major industries, the primary industry water consumption is expected to increase slightly by average annual rate about 0.01%, while the secondary, tertiary industrial water consumption are expected to decrease by about annual change rate 1.02%, 0.28% respectively. As far as the water consumption intensity are concerned, three major industries water consumption intensity will continue to decline, the primary industry will fall by an annual average of 6.69%, and the secondary, tertiary industry fall by an annual average rate 8.38%, 11.91% respectively, which the primary industry decline will be less than GDP water consumption, and the secondary, tertiary industries decline by the rate being higher than by GDP’s one. (5) Basing on the above quantitative studying results, and combining with the great opportunity that Gansu has become the first national recycling economy pilot province, the paper put forward that it is a significant direction for industrial water saving introduce the theory of circular economy 3R principle into the field of industrial water consumption, and presented combining with the Gansu provincial circulation agriculture, circulation industry base construction, and to implement the key target of reduction, reuse and recycling (3R) of water consumption in different industrial sectors. |
| 中文关键词 | 产业用水 ; 特征 ; 影响因素 ; 时空差异 ; 甘肃省 |
| 英文关键词 | industrial water consumption characteristic influencing factors spatial difference Gansu Province |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 人文地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287516 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 李丽莉. 甘肃省产业用水特征及影响因素的时空差异分析[D]. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
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