Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 阿尔泰山喀依尔特斯河流域春季融雪观测与模拟研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Observation and modeling of spring snowmelt processes in an Altay Mountains river basin |
| 吴雪娇 | |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 王宁练 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 受西风环流的影响，阿尔泰山山区气候寒冷，降水多以降雪的形式存在。融雪水是该地区重要的淡水资源。在该地区，春季融雪水可满足下游绿洲的灌溉用水需求，减轻干旱对绿洲农业的影响。然而，在全球变暖的背景下，一方面，积雪水文过程的变化对我国西北干旱区经济的发展有着重要的影响；另一方面，快速突发的春季融雪会引起洪水灾害，危及到区域人民的生命财产安全。因此，监测积雪变化，模拟积雪消融过程和预测融雪径流量对水资源合理利用和春季山区洪水预警有着十分重要的意义。本研究以阿尔泰山额尔齐斯河河源区喀依尔特斯河流域为典型研究区，基于近年来的野外观测和试验数据，开展“温度指数法”和“能量平衡法”支持下的融雪模拟研究，并结合现代“3S”技术，耦合大气模式WRF降尺度的分布式气象数据，模拟和分析了典型山区积雪流域积雪融雪特征和融雪径流量变化。得出以下主要结论： （1）本研究根据已有的气象观测资料分析了过去50多年来研究区的气候变化特征。结果显示，该地区年平均气温有显著的增加趋势，增温幅度达到0.79 oC /10 yr，且四季都有显著增加趋势，冬季增幅最大；年降水量也呈现显著增加趋势，增幅为17 mm /10yr，但只有冬季的增加趋势显著。研究区积雪水文特征的研究结果表明，最大积雪深度多年来整体呈增加趋势（3.6 cm/10 yr）；积雪初日在明显推后，积雪终日呈微弱提前，整个积雪期有明显的缩短（0.58 day/yr）。年径流量在1976年以前是降低的趋势，而1976年以后是微弱的增加趋势；洪峰流量的变化特征与年径流相似，但1976年-2010年3、5月份的流量增加趋势比较显著，揭示了在气候变暖背景下春季融雪径流的重要贡献。 （2）基于能量平衡法和水量平衡法，模拟单点融雪过程并分析各个能量分量的日变化特征。结果表明，率定的UEB模型参数可靠。本研究模拟了2012年春季融雪初期该流域出口处的积雪消融过程，雪水当量的验证平均相对误差为7.2%，模型的模拟结果与实测比较吻合。分析的感热、潜热、净辐射等重要能量分量在春季积雪消融时期的变化特点显示，净辐射日均值的变化区间是22~106 W/m2，净辐射是春季融雪的主要能量来源。 （3）本研究在喀依尔特斯河流域进一步实现了分布式积雪消融过程模拟。先用WRF模式做动力降尺度，再用MicroMet进行统计降尺度，制备了高空间分辨率（1km）的分布式气象数据，并在气象站观测数据的支持下对模拟的高空间分辨率的气象数据进行逐一验证。验证结果表明，降尺度到1km分辨率的温度结果非常好（R2=0.84），其次是入射短波辐射（R2=0.7），而风速模拟结果非常差R2=0.03。由于风速是能量平衡中计算感热和潜热的重要因子之一，在此基础上无法实现基于能量平衡的分布式模拟。在空间上便考虑使用改进的度日因子法对春季的融雪过程进行模拟，进而实现融雪径流计算。 （4）本研究利用改进的度日因子模型进行了分布式积雪消融模拟。模型使用了日均有效正温度和日均有效净辐射这两个影响积雪消融的重要因素。通过野外实测及气象观测，分别率定了温度因子和辐射因子。结果显示，温度因子DDF为2.2~6 mm/?C?d，辐射因子NRF区间为0.12~0.18 mm/wm-2?d。基于此，利用制备好的空间气象数据，模拟了2012年春季积雪消融过程，得到了高空间分辨率的雪水当量。并分别用2012年实测雪深变化和遥感的积雪面积分布对空间分布式模拟的结果进行验证，最大相对误差为52.4%，最小相对误差为0.26%，平均相对误差为6.7%。说明模型的模拟结果较为理想。进一步计算了2012年春季逐日融雪量的变化。2012年春季融雪径流总量可达1.68×108 m3，占春季总径流量的72.1%，占年径流量的21%。积雪融水是流域春季径流的主要补给来源。 |
| 英文摘要 | Altay Mountainsis influenced significantly by the westerly circulations, and the precipitation is mainly transferred by the westerly, in the form of snow most of the time. Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in these areas.Spring snowmelt water is amajor source of river runoff, which can support the demand for water resources in oases, easedroughts that affect oasis agriculture, and meet the demands of spring irrigation. However, with the global warming of climate, rapid spring snowmelt can cause flood disasters that can endanger public and personal propertyand safety.Therefore,the work of monitoring snow changes, modeling snowmelt processes, and forecasting snowmeltoutflows and runoff is important for appropriate water resource management and flood prevention. The Kayiertesi basin, which located in Altay Mountains in Xinjiang, was chosen to be the typical study area, based on field observation and “3S” technologies (GIS, RS and GPS), combining with the outputs of WRF atmospheric modes, and carried out a large number of laboratory simulation and analysis of the physical process of the snowmelt, and draw several conclusions as following: (1) The variability of temperature and precipitation in the past 50 years wasanalyzed by meteorological data of the study area. The results showed that annual mean air temperature was increased during the period 1969-2014 (0.79 oC /10 yr). The rate of air temperature warming in four seasons all are all significant and it is largest in winter. Precipitation in the year was increasing in the study area (17 mm /10yr).Precipitation in four seasonsall increased faintly, and onlyin winter the trend was significant. Results of snow hydrological variation in the study indicated that a significant increasing trend of the maximum depth of snow cover take place in the year（3.6 cm/10 yr）. First day of snow cover deferred in the area; the appearance of last day was earlier and duration of snow cover days became shorter, the rate of which was 0.58 day/yr. Annual runoff decreased before 1976, after that slowly increased; the variation of flood peak discharge was the same as annual runoff in this area, but the increasing trend of flood peak discharge in spring was significant, which revealed that spring snowmelt runoff takes a important role in river runoff. (2) The Utah energy balance (UEB) model was used to simulate the development and meltingof spring (March 2012) snow cover at an observation site in the Kayiertesi River Basin in theAltay Mountains in Xinjiang. The modeled results were validated by field measurements andremotely sensed data. Results show that the simulation of snow water equivalent (SWE) closely matched the observed SWE,with a mean relative error of 7.2%. During the snowmelt process, net radiation was themajor energy source of the snow layer (22~106 W/m2). The variation of the snowmelt outflow was closely relatedto the snowmelt amounts and air temperature. The initial results of this modeling process showed that our calibrated parameters were reasonable and the UEB model can be used for simulatingand forecasting peak snowmelt outflows in this region. (3) This research simulated snowmelt process based on distributed ablating model. Firstly, WRF model is run in 2012 with a case study in Kayiertesi Basin, then downscaling the outputs of WRF to 1km using MicroMet to get high spatiotemporalresolution meteorological forcing data. The results were alsovalidated by in-situ measurement data. The following conclusionswere obtained: 1) for hourly validation, WRF model simulations of 2m surfacetemperatureand relative humidity are more reliable, especially surface airtemperature, absolute errors were small and the R2 were 0.84; 2) theWRF simulating downward short-wave radiation was relatively good, the average R2 betweenWRF simulation and hourly observation data was above 0.7; 3) both wind speed and rainfall simulated from WRF model werenot agreed well with observation data.Because of the wind speed is one of the important factor of sensible heat and latent heat in the energy balance calculation, the simulated results of winds speed cannot finish the energy balance of the distributed simulation.Then the improved temperature index method was considered to simulate spring snowmelt process in the study area, thus finish snowmelt runoff calculation. (4) This study developed an improved temperature index snowmelt model and finished distributed simulationof the snowmelt process in the Kayiertesi River Basin. In the model, daily meanpositive temperature and daily mean positive net radiation are the mean factors influencing snow melt. Byfield measurement and meteorological observation, the temperature factor and radiation factor in the model were calibrated, respectively.Results showed that the temperature factor (DDF) is 2.2~6 mm/°C?d,andradiation factor (NRF) is 0.12~0.18 mm/wm-2?d.Based on this work, coupling high resolution temporal and spatial meteorological data, simulated spring snow melt process in 2012 and got the high resolution SWE. Then, the results were validated by measured snow depth in a point and the remote sensing snow cover distribution separately. The results indicated that the maximum relative error was 52.4%, the minimum relative error was 0.26% and the mean relative error was 6.7%, which illustrated that the modeled snow melt process is ideal. Spring snowmelt runoff in 2012 was calculated with runoff coefficient method based distributed SWE change.In the spring of 2012, the total snowmelt runoff is 1.68 x 108m3, which accounts for 72.1% of spring runoff in the basin and 21% of annual runoff in the basin. Snowmelt water is the main runoff source in the basin. |
| 中文关键词 | 新疆阿尔泰山 ; 积雪消融 ; 气候变化 ; 分布式消融模型 |
| 英文关键词 | Altay Mountains in Xinjiang snow melt distributed ablating model WRF |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287514 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 吴雪娇. 阿尔泰山喀依尔特斯河流域春季融雪观测与模拟研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
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