Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 中国大陆地表太阳辐射长期变化及气候效应研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Varibility and long-term trend of surface solar radiation in Mainland China and its implication for climate change |
| 费烨 | |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 夏祥鳌 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 太阳辐射作为地球上能量的最终来源，它是决定区域和全球气候的重要因子。近年来全球各地均观测到地表太阳辐射发生了显著年代际变化，但关于地表太阳辐射变化的区域特征、潜在原因及其可能气候效应仍然存在较大争议，因此加强区域尺度上地表太阳辐射变化及其效应的研究具有重要科学意义。本论文基于地面观测资料，并结合卫星遥感数据，比较系统的分析了我国自上世纪早期以来中国区域地表太阳辐射的时空变化特征，并试图通过联合分析地表太阳辐射、云量和气溶胶数据揭示气溶胶和云量对地表太阳辐射的可能贡献。论文侧重分析了上世纪初和本世纪以来地表太阳辐射变化特征，此外通过对比分析城郊差异探讨了地表太阳辐射变化可能带来的气候效应。本文主要结论如下： (1) 1908?1936年，我国东部10站日照时数呈现显著上升趋势（0.16h/d/decade）并有显著季节变化特征，秋季上升最大（0.33h/d/decade），春夏次之，冬季呈微弱下降趋势（?0.07h/d/decade）。日照时数变化趋势得到温度日较差的印证。该时期内总云量呈明显下降趋势（百分之?0.93/decade），日照时数年际和年代际变化与总云量呈显著负相关，由此表明云量是历史时期日照时数变化的主要因子。该结果显然与20世纪60年代以来，中国地区云量变化难以解释地表太阳辐射显著下降这一观测事实的结论截然不同。 (2) 1980?2009年，中国中东部地区地表太阳辐射下降?0.7Wm-2/decade，其中夏季下降趋势最为显著，约为?2.7 Wm-2/decade。从区域变化来看，地表太阳辐射下降趋势主要集中在华北（?3.9 Wm-2/decade），这一地区对应着微弱的云量上升（百分之0.26 /decade），但气溶胶光学厚度显著上升，据此表明华北地区地表辐射的长期变化是以气溶胶为主、总云量为辅的共同作用。华南地区春季辐射上升（4.2Wm-2/ decade）则归因于总云量的下降（百分之?2.1/decade）。华东地区气溶胶虽有最大的上升幅度，但由于该区域云量呈减少趋势，因而地表太阳辐射下降趋势并不明显。另外，地表太阳辐射与总云量高频部分的相关系数到达0.85以上，表明辐射的年际短期变率主要来自总云量的年际变化。 (3) 基于2003?2013年地表太阳辐射、总云量及MODIS气溶胶光学厚度数据，讨论了中国东部地区49个辐射站点该时间段地表太阳辐射、总云量、气溶胶的时空变化及其关系。中国中东部地区地表太阳辐射呈明显上升趋势（4.2Wm-2/decade），其中上升趋势最显著的区域为华中及云贵川地区，这一地区对应着云量下降，与云量低频部分相关系数低于?0.6，表明这些地区表太阳辐射变化的贡献主要是来自于总云量的变化。长江中游地区及内蒙地区地表太阳辐射呈现微弱上升，主要贡献来自于气溶胶的变化。 (4) 1980?2009年，塔克拉玛干沙漠地区地表太阳辐射上升趋势为1.21 Wm-2/decade，其中春季上升最明显（3.02 Wm-2/decade）。该地区总云量与低云量呈现上升趋势，显然云量变化不能解释地表太阳辐射变化。该时段内水汽微弱上升，也不能支持地表太阳辐射的上升趋势。而该地区强沙尘暴发生频率下降趋势为8.2次/decade，气溶胶光学厚度的下降可导致地表太阳辐射下降约0.78 W m-2/decade，因此气溶胶是导致该地区地表太阳辐射的变化的首要原因。 (5) 基于城乡四类（特大城市、大城市、小城市、乡村）共84个气象站点数据，讨论了1961-2009年间中国地区日照时数变化的城郊差异及与温度关系。在1961-2009年间，四类站点日照时数下降幅度呈现较明显的城乡差异，特大城市和乡村站点日照时数每十年下降幅度分别为?0.23h/d及?0.12h/d，表明特大城市地区 “城市变暗”效应占整个变暗幅度的40%以上，由此可推断“地表变暗”现象在中国地区一定程度上呈局地现象。在所有站点中，1961至2009年间，日最高温度的上升趋势较为一致，而最低温度在城市站点的上升幅度明显高于乡村地区，由于太阳辐射对日最高温度的影响远大于对日最低温度，可推测城市地区日照时数更大下降幅度可能部分抵消了由城市热岛效应引起的增温效应。 |
| 英文摘要 | Solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface is the ultimate energy source for life on the planet, and largely determines the regional and global climatic conditions of our habitats. Observational and modeling studies suggest that surface solar radiation (SSR) shows substantial decadal variations all over the world. However, the regionalcharacteristics, potential contributors as well as related climatic impacts of SSR variations are still in controversial. Therefore, the research on SSR on a regional scale as well as the possible impacts is important and necessary. Based on routine measurements at meteorological stations and satellite remote sensing data, the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSR are systematicallyanalyzed from the first half of 20th century. The possible contributions from aerosol and cloud cover to the obvious decadal variations of SSR are investigated. This paper places emphasis on the analysis of the SSR change in the first half of last century and the period since 2000s. By the means of analyzing the SSR difference between city and rural stations, the related climatic impacts of SSR variations are also discussed. The main results of this paper are as follows: (1) The sunshine duration (SSD) on tenmeteorological stations over East China shows an increasing trend (0.16h/d/decade) from 1908 to 1936. SSD variations show distinguished seasonal characteristics with largest increasing trend in autumn (0.33h/d/decade) and an unobvious decreasing in winter (?0.07h/d/decade).The good agreement in variability of SSD and DTR implies that SSD measurements are reliable. TCC shows a decreasing trend (?0.93% decade-1) and significantly inversely related to SSD, indicating variation of SSD is attributable to changes of cloud cover in this period. The result is obviously different from that clouds cannot explain the decadal trend of SSR in China since 1960s. (2) The overall decreasing trend of SSR during 1980-2009 is ?0.7Wm-2 per decade, and the dimming mainly occurs in summer (?2.7W m-2/decade). At the regional scale, the decreasing trend of SSR is dominant in north China region (-3.9 Wm-2/decade), where TCC shows a slight increasing trend (0.26 %/decade) and AOD presents a significant increasing trend, suggesting that the long-term change of SSD in north China region is mainly caused by aerosol change and secondly attributed to TCC long-term change. The increasing trend of SSR in spring (4.2Wm-2/decade) among south China region is caused by the decreasing trend of TCC (?2.1%/decade). Although AOD increases most in east China region, cloud shows a decreasing trend; therefore the decreasing trend of SSR is not obvious in this region. Interannual variability of SSR is strongly inversely correlated to that of TCC (above ?0.85), which indicates short-term variability of SSR is dominantly determined by cloudiness. (3) The spatiotemporal variations of SSR, TCC, and AOD are analyzed based on 49 surface stations’ observations and MODIS data from 2003 to 2013. The overall increasing trend of SSR is 4.2Wm-2 per decade. The increasing trend of SSR is most dominant in central China and Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan region, where TCC shows a decreasing trend and the correlation of the low-frequency (smoothed) SSR and TCC time series is less than ?0.6, implying that the long-term change of SSR in these regions is mainly attributed to TCC long-term change. The unobvious increasing trend of SSR in middle reaches of Yangtze River and Inner Mongolia is caused by aerosol variations. The unobvious decreasing trend of SSR in the south part of South China is mostly contributed to obvious increasing trend of TCC. (4) The Taklimakan Desert (TD) has experienced global brightening (1.21 Wm-2/decade) from 1980 to 2009, and the brightening is most obvious in spring (3.02 Wm-2/decade). The increasing long-term trend of total cloud cover (TCC) and low cloud cover (LCC) shows that cloud cover cannot account for the solar brightening in TD. Water vapor content (WVC) also shows increasing trend which indicates WVC neither contributes to the observed solar brightening. Decrease of Aerosol optical depth (AOD) due to decreasing occurrence of severe dust storm (8.2times/decade) may partly explain the brightening (0.78 W m-2/decade).Therefore aerosol drives the variations of SSR in TD. (5) Difference in SSD trend and its implication for surface temperature between four station categories (i.e. metropolis, large city, small city and rural station) are analyzed in this paper. Quite different SSD decreasing rate between four station categories from 1961 to 2009 has been found. The maximum decreasing rate occurs at metropolis stations (?0.23 h/d per decade) and the minimum rate occurrs at rural station (?0.12 h/d per decade), which implies the contribution of urban dimming accounting for nearly 40% of the overall dimming in metropolis stations and solar dimming is of local nature to some extent. Among all station categories, the maximum temperatures shows a similar positive trend, however, the minimum temperatures increases much faster at urban stations than at rural stations. This suggests that the faster decline of SSD at urban stations could partly dampen effect of urban heat island on temperature. |
| 中文关键词 | 地表太阳辐射 ; 云量 ; 气溶胶 ; 水汽 ; 温度日较差 |
| 英文关键词 | surface solar radiation cloud cover aerosol water vapor diurnal temperature range |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 大气物理学与大气环境 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院大气物理研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287477 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 费烨. 中国大陆地表太阳辐射长期变化及气候效应研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
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