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| 大气化学传输模式模拟与卫星反演大气CO2浓度对比分析 | |
| 其他题名 | Comparison between Atmospheric chemical transport model simulations and satellite retrieval atmospheric CO2 concentration |
| 王江楠 | |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 田向军 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 近年来，气候问题越来越受到世界各国的普遍关注，而大气中的温室气体则是影响气候变化的主要因素之一。目前，大气中的二氧化碳浓度正在逐年的增加，据信会导致全球平均气温的升高，由此对于大气中二氧化碳浓度变化及其分布的研究相当重要，提供精确的大气二氧化碳信息对于评价二氧化碳控制减排成效、制定减排政策具有相当积极的作用。 本文使用GEOS-CHEM(v9-01-03)模式对2010年全球大气二氧化碳浓度进行模拟（模式水平分辨为2o×2.5o、垂直分层为47层），由此分析全球近地面大气二氧化碳浓度分布和季节变化规律，并进一步分析中国区域近地面二氧化碳的变化趋势，同时本论文也对全球二氧化碳源汇变化情况进行了相应的分析。进一步把模式模拟出的47层二氧化碳浓度转换成柱浓度GEOS-XCO2，将并GOSAT卫星反演柱浓度数据及TCCON地面站点观测二氧化碳柱浓度数据进行对比分析。 分析表明2010年近地面的二氧化碳浓度月均值分布有明显的季节变化，1月到5月以及12月二氧化碳浓度在北半球的浓度较高，浓度一般为390-400ppm，可能是由于人类大量燃烧化石燃料，从而导致二氧化碳浓度快速增长，并且二氧化碳浓度从北极到南极有着明显的梯度变化；而6月到11月二氧化碳的浓度在南半球较高。亚洲东南部、欧洲、北美洲东南部地区、南美洲和非洲赤道附近地区二氧化碳浓度常年居高不下，可能是由于这些地区是化石燃料燃烧源和生物质燃烧高排放区，并且工业排放也较为严重。在中国区域二氧化碳分布总体上呈现东高西低的分布特征，并且地表的大气二氧化碳浓度高浓度区主要集中在中东部地区，可能是由于这些地区大量燃烧化石燃料源。 全球海洋在全年都是主要的二氧化碳汇，但是热带海洋尤其是赤道附近海域一年四季都是大气二氧化碳的源。除了6月、7月、8月，北半球特别是东亚地区、印度、欧洲大部以及美国东部地区其他月份都是二氧化碳源，这可能是由于这些区域燃烧大量的化石燃料，使二氧化碳排放量大于其他区域。赤道地区例如非洲中部地区、南美洲中部地区以亚洲一些地区也是主要的二氧化碳源，这可能是由于这些区域进行了大量的生物质燃烧活动，进而增加了二氧化碳的排放。 模式模拟的GEOS-XCO2与GOSAT卫星反演数据XCO2之间的差异分布显示在全球较大范围内除了个别点和南极地区，GOSAT卫星的观测数据大于GEOS-CHEM的模拟转换数据，模式模拟结果与卫星观测数据在两极、热带区域、非洲撒哈拉沙漠附近区域、亚马逊河流域以及亚洲一些区域这些地方差异相对较大，一方面可能是由于卫星传感器和反演算法的限制所造成的，另一方面在亚洲一些地区正处工业发展时期，温室气体排放较多，造成二氧化碳排放数据不准确，从而使模式模拟的结果存在偏差。根据GEOS-XCO2与GOSAT卫星反演数据XCO2的拟合结果，4月模拟转换数据GEOS-XCO2与GOSAT卫星数据XCO2的相关性最大，可达到0.72， 7月和8月的相关性次之分别为0.57和0.54。 GEOS-XCO2与TCCON站点数据对比时，比跟GOSAT卫星反演数据对比的结果要好，Ny Alesund 和Izana 这两个站点的相关系数可以达到0.93和0.94，总体来说北半球的站点的相关系数要高于南半球站点的相关系数。GEOS-XCO2与TCCON站点数据之间存在差异可能是由于站点观测仪器受场景信息云和气溶胶影响以及仪器本身的问题所造成的。 |
| 英文摘要 | In recent years, the climate problem has received more and more attention of the countries around the world and atmospheric greenhouse gases play an important role in affecting global warming. The increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide contributes to the global average temperature raised. Therefore the changing information for atmospheric CO2 concentration is the significant basis for us to monitor and evaluate the CO2 emission reduction effect, improve and develop emission reduction policy. This paper simulated the atmospheric CO2 concentration from model we used is driven by GEOS-CHEM model (v9-01-03) with a horizontal resolution of 2° latitude by 2.5°longitude and 47 vertical layers in 2010, and analyzed the near-surface atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration distribution and seasonal variation of China regions; At the same time we analyze changes of global carbon dioxide source . At last, We converted the atmospheric CO2 concentration data in model of the 47 vertical levels to column-averaged dry air mole fractions of atmospheric carbon dioxide to comparing with GOSAT(Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) data and the carbon dioxide column concentration data of TCCON(Total Carbon Column Observing Network) ground station. The results indicate monthly carbon dioxide concentration of year 2010 has the significant seasonal cycle, from January to May and December the concentration of carbon dioxide is higher in the northern hemisphere, and generally can reach 390-400ppm. Probably it due to human activities that the burning of fossil fuels, thereby led to rapid growth in carbon dioxide concentrations, and the concentration of carbon dioxide from the Arctic to the Antarctic has a clear gradient changes. While from June to November there is a higher concentration of carbon dioxide in the southern hemisphere. Carbon dioxide concentration in Southeast Asia, Europe, North America Southeast, South Africa, Equatorial and other areas is remain high all the year maybe due to the burning of fossil fuels and biomass burning source of high-emission zones, and industrial emissions are more serious . In China, there is a higher carbon dioxide concentration in Eastern region and lower concentration in Western region that in Eastern region may be due to the burning of fossil fuel sources.The global ocean is the main carbon dioxide sinks all the year, but the tropical ocean near the equator is the main source of carbon dioxide. In 2010 except June, July and August, the Northern Hemisphere especially in East Asia, India, Europe and the eastern United States are a source of carbon dioxide, which may be due to a large number of these areas burning of fossil fuels, the emissions is higher than other region. Equatorial regions such as Central Africa, South America, some parts of Central Asia is also a major source of carbon dioxide because of the biomass burning activity, thus increasing the carbon dioxide emissions. The distribution of difference between GEOS-XCO2 and GOSAT retrieval data shows a wide range in the world except individual points and Antarctic regions, GOSAT satellite observation data is greater than the GEOS-XCO2. At the poles, tropical regions, sub-Saharan in Africa, regions near Amazon River and some regions of Asia where the difference is relatively large, on the one hand may be due to the satellite sensors and algorithms restriction, on the other hand some regions in Asia is developing the industrial that make more greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in carbon dioxide emissions data is not accurate, so that the results of model simulations occur deviation. Correlation coefficients between GEOS-XCO2 and GOSAT data in April is maximum that can be achieved 0.72, it was smaller in June (0.57) and August (0.54). The comparisons between GEOS-Chem data and TCCON observations is better than the comparison between GEOS and GOSAT, the correlation coefficients in Ny Alesund and Izana can reach 0.93 and 0.94, the c |
| 中文关键词 | GEOS-CHEM模式 ; GOSAT卫星 ; TCCON站点观测 ; 大气CO2浓度 ; 对比 |
| 英文关键词 | GEOS-CHEM GOSAT TCCON CO2 Concentration Comparison |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 地球流体力学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院大气物理研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287347 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 王江楠. 大气化学传输模式模拟与卫星反演大气CO2浓度对比分析[D]. 中国科学院大学,2014. |
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