Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 中国西北地区城市经济发展对气候变化影响的检测研究 | |
| 其他题名 | The detection of urban economic development effect on climate changing over northwestern China |
| 方锋 | |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 气候变化对全球生态系统、人类居住环境和卫生健康等方面带来了显著的影响，以政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）和世界经济合作组织（OECD）为代表的国际组织认为人类活动是推动全球气候变化的主要原因，OECD认为世界多数人口已经居住在城市，以城市发展为推动力的人为活动对气候变化的影响作用最大。但仍有许多科学家对全球气候变化提出质疑，甚至怀疑全球气候本身是否发生变化，更多的科学家对气候变化研究的不确定性和推动气候变化的主要原因是否为人类活动提出疑问。 为了进一步分析城市发展等人类活对气候变化的影响，本研究选择我国经济发展相对落后的西北地区作为研究区域，以22个不同功能类型的城市为研究主体，涵盖历史数据记录完整的136个气象站。 量化确定了代表城市经济发展的9个主要指标，以及影响西北气候的6个主要天气系统模式。采用Mann-kendal、Pettitt、Yamomoto等突变检测方法、多元回归等建模方法，对我国西北地区城乡气候变化趋势、城市发展对气候变化的贡献、气候变化突变的检测及主导因素等进行了系统的分析研究，建立了经济发展与气候要素相关性的模拟模型。研究结果表明： 1. 近50年来，西北城市和乡村分别上升了1.70℃ 和 1.63℃，城市与乡村气温上升趋势仅相差0.07℃；经济发展水平、地理环境以及人口规模增强城市的气候效应影响作用，其中经济发展水平的影响最大；最低气温在各气温要素中变率最大；改革开放以后的30年来，高原和平原城市对气温的影响大约为绿洲城市的2倍；特大城市和大城市表现出强烈的增温作用，而中小城市表现出轻微的降温作用；城市人口增长与气温效应可以通过对数关系表示，海拔与城市效应之间没有明显关系；城市发展对于城市升温的贡献量约占10-40%。 2. 西北全区平均降水量在1980年以后呈现增加趋势，中西部区域为增加趋势，而东部为减少趋势；西北经济较发达地区、大城市和石油化工城市的降水量、降水日数、日最大降水量等要素1979-2012年趋势与1961-1978年趋势的差值为正值；城市经济和化工业发展对降水的贡献率总体在10-60%左右，但有部分城市对降水上升趋势的影响为负作用。 3. 西北地区省会城市气压随城市发展呈现出减小趋势，中小城市和其余区域的气压随发展为上升趋势；水汽压表现出上升趋势，水汽压的时间和空间分布表明其对人为活动不敏感；风速在省会城市和化工城市表现出一定的增加，但在其余大部地区下降趋势显著；最小相对湿度变化趋势为显著上升，人为活动对最小相对湿度的变化趋势的影响作用不明显；极端最高气温和极端最低气温呈现明显上升趋势，但极端气温的升温中心不在省会城市和化工城市，化工城市对极端最高气温的影响为副作用，而对极端最低气温的作用为正。 4. 西北城市发展为抛物线型上升趋势，货币指标在1990年左右出现拐点，物化指标在1980年左右出现拐点；各天气系统变化趋势的转折点时间相差较大，与西北气候关系密切的副高和西藏高度场的转折点出现在1980年左右，印缅槽在1970年和1990左右各有一个转折点；西北各气候要素的突变出现在1978年和1987年两个节点，这两个节点与城市经济发展的拐点、天气系统的转折点都比较相近；相关分析表明，自然因素与气候要素的相关性略高于人为因素与气候要素。 5. 城镇化水平与西北地区气候要素的相关性最好，水泥生产量和煤炭消耗与相对湿度的相关性较好，汽车保有量对于降水日数有较明显的影响；经济指标对气温、日照、风速和相对湿度的模拟效果好，而对降水量和降水日数的模拟较差；模拟方程中社会投资、汽车保有量、城镇化水平和服务业产值对气候的影响比较明显。 6. 研究认为在西北地区减缓气候变化的适宜措施为：控制汽车保有量；对城镇化进行结构和功能优化，减少其对土地利用方式的不利影响；以加强科技研发和应用来推进工业、建筑业和服务业等的革新，降低单位产值对资源环境的依赖程度。 |
| 英文摘要 | In recent decades, climate warming has brought significant influence on the global ecological system, human living environment and health, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on climate change) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD (OECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) insisted that human activity is the main cause to promote global climate changing. OECD said most of the population in the world lived in the city and city development activities are the most important factors to drive climate changing. But there still are many scientists questioned on global climate changing, or even suspected that the global climate is changing or not. More scientists questioned the uncertain of climate change and whether human activities are the main driving factors on climate change. In order to study the influence of city development and human activityliving on climate change trend, in this paper, we selected the northwestern China as research object. Northwestern China have the characteristic of relatively backward economic level, but in this region there are still some large developed cities, and some typical cities depended on petrochemical industry. The 136 meteorological stations with complete recorded data were selected; 22 cities with different functional type in northwest China were choiced as the research subjects; 9 indexes were used to charactrize urban economic development; In addition, 6 weather systems data were collected for analysis. Various detection algorithms, such as the Mann-kendal, pettitt, Yamomoto, and so on, and multiple regression modeling method were used to study the change trend of urban and rural area, the effects of urbanization on climate change, mutation detection of climate change, driving factors of climate change, the relationship between the economic index and climate index. The results showed as follows: In the recent 50 years, the northwest urban and the rural area have increased by 1.70 and 1.63 ℃, but the temperature trend difference between urban and rural area is only 0.07 ℃. The economic development level, city geography and population size could enhance the effect of city, especially the index of economic development level has the most distinct effects for the climate warming. Among the meteorological elements, the lowest temperature is more easier affected by city development. Since 1978, the effect of plateau and plain city on temperature was twice of oasis city, megalopolis and big city showed stronger warming effect; however middle-sized and small cities played cooling effect. The relationship between population growth and warming effects of city presented logarithmic pattern, however this phenomenon can’t be observed between the elevation and the warming effect of city. Moreover the city development also has about 10-40% positive contribution to city warming. The mean precipitation of the whole northwest region showed an increasing trend since 1980, but has regional differences. The central and western regions present increased trend, while the eastern is opposite. The difference of trend for precipitation, rain days, daily maximum precipitation and other factors in the northwestern developed area, big city and petrochemical city between pre-reforming and pro-reforming are positive. The contributions of urban economy and industry development to precipitation can reach about 10-60%. Additionally, other meteorological elements were analyzed. In nearly 50 years, the atmospheric pressure of capital cities in the northwestern area decreased with the city development, however that of small-size and medium-sized city and other regions increased. The water vapor pressure represented a rising trend and its spatio-temporal distribution indicated that it is not sensitive to human activities. The wind speed in the capital cities and petro-chemical cities appeared a definite increase, however in the other area it dec |
| 中文关键词 | 西北地区 ; 气候变化趋势 ; 突变检测 ; 人为活动 ; 城市发展 ; 经济指标 ; 影响 |
| 英文关键词 | Northwestern China trend of climate changing mutation detection anthropogenic activity city development economic index impact |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 生态学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287337 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 方锋. 中国西北地区城市经济发展对气候变化影响的检测研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2014. |
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