Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 疏勒河上游流域山区水文过程分析及模拟研究 | |
| 其他题名 | The analyzing and simulating of hydrologic processes in the upstream of the Shule River basin |
| 高明杰 | |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 韩添丁 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 我国西北地区河流以内陆河为主，河流的水源主要来自于上游山区，中下游以蒸散发为主。上游来水量的多少和时空分配对中下游绿洲的经济发展和生态环境的保护起着决定性作用。因此，山区流域水文过程的研究具有重要的科学意义和现实意义。同时，近些年来全球气候变暖，对山区流域的水文过程产生重要的影响，分析山区流域的气候变化特征及其对水文过程的影响显得尤为重要。但是河流水源地-山区自然条件比较恶劣、观测数据较少，因此，除了利用这少量的实测数据进行分析外，借助于水文模型对流域的水文过程进行模拟是一种很好的研究手段。本研究中，借助于耦合了次格网化的冰川方案的大尺度分布式水文模型-VIC水文模型（包含冻土模块），模拟研究疏勒河上游山区流域的水文过程。\n本研究选择的研究区是疏勒河上游山区流域，位于青藏高原东北边缘、祁连山西段，流域面积约1.14×104km2。 研究中局地气候分析所使用的气象数据来自于苏里、鱼儿红两个10米自动气象观测塔，时间序列为2008-2011年。对来自于昌马水文站1954-2010年日观测流量资料进行了特征分析。利用研究区周围6个国家气象站1970-2006年的日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温数据通过反距离梯度差值的方法，将气象站点的数据插值到模型的模拟格网上。同时结合来源于APHRO-V1003R1数据库（0.25°× 0.25°)日降水数据作为模型的气象驱动输入数据，对疏勒河山区径流进行模拟。然后采用1970-1979年的昌马水文站实测水文资料对模型参数进行率定，使用1980-2006年数据对模型进行验证。并通过设计气候情境，分析气候变化对径流的影响。研究结果表明：\n（1）根据10米自动气象观测塔2米观测气温可知，苏里2米气温的多年平均值约为-4℃，气温具有明显的季节变化，7月最高，1月最低。日温差同样具有季节变化。多年月平均气温变化呈典型的抛物线型。1月份最低，为-17.6℃，最大值出现在7月为7.9℃。鱼儿红年平均气温约为4.4℃。日均温有明显的季节性周期。但日温差变化不明显。两地年降水量差异很大，苏里降水量在380mm左右，且年际变化不大，年内降水集中植被生长季节5-9月份，占全年降水量的90%以上。鱼儿红年降水量比苏里显著减少，而且变及变化较大。两地风速有季节变化，但是苏里是冬春季节大，夏秋季节小，鱼儿红刚好相反。苏里空气相对湿度季节变化明显，鱼儿红不明显。\n（2）苏里2009-2011年消融季节日平均流量为22.4 m3.s-1。径流从6月中旬开始增加，在9月下旬急剧减少，并逐渐趋于稳定。月平均径流呈现抛物线型，但每年的抛物线峰值出现时间各不相同。通过日平均气温、日降水量和日平均径流变化来看，径流的变化是受气温和降水的综合作用的结果。\n（3）昌马各月径流自1954-2010年呈增加趋势，夏季各月径流年际变化较大，增加趋势主要出现在20世纪90年代。冬春季节各月径流，在90年代以前缓慢增加，90年代以后迅速增加。\n（4）昌马径流的年内分配不均匀，有明显季节变化。7月平均流量最大，为84.14m3.s-1。8月份平均流量仅次于7月。丰水期（6-9月）流量占全年流量的68.6%，冬季（12月-次年2月）基流量只占年流量的8.2%。\n该流域年内径流分配系数Cvy主要处在0.6-1.2之间；从年代际变化来看，年内的分配不均匀系数和年内径流分配的完全调节系数都有明显的减小趋势。1954年-2009年内径流集中度都在0.5 以上，其中50年代集中度最大（0.55），21世纪初集中度最小（0.50），多年平均集中度为0.52。集中期为7月。相对变化幅度变化趋势是减小的，绝对变化幅度表现出相反的变化趋势。\n（5）昌马出山径流年际变化不是很剧烈（Cv=0.25）,从年际极值比来看，也不是很大，仅为3.87。最大径流量发生在2002年，为15.98×108m3，最小径流量为4.13×108m3，发生在1956年。\n该流域年径流有明显的丰枯变化。径流量不丰富的年份（枯水、偏枯、平水）有40年，占总数的71%，水量丰富的年份（偏丰、丰水）不到1/3。偏枯或枯水年主要分布在1996年以前，尤其是枯水年，1980年以后不再发生；而丰水年主要出现在1996年以后。在研究的时间序列中，河径流由枯水逐步向丰水转变。\n（6）通过VIC模型参数率定显示：耦合了次格网化的VIC模型月径流模拟效率系数为0.72，误差系数为0.13。说明耦合了次格网化的VIC模型在研究区具有适应性。\n（7）通过率定期和验证期的日、月模拟径流对比发现，不管在率定期还是验证期，月径流的模拟效率要高于日径流模拟效率。\n（8）模拟径流于实测径流的变化趋势对比分析显示，变化趋势是一致的，但在数量上有差别。误差系数表明模拟径流量占实测流量的87%。\n（9）耦合了能量平衡冰川消融方案时，模拟径流中的冰川径流占21%，耦合度日因子冰川消融方案时，模拟的冰川径流占11%；前者比后者模拟效果好。\n（10）通过分析冻土存在与不存在两种情况下的径流变化得知，冻土对水文过程有明显的影响。冻土的存在使得冬季基流变小，夏季峰值流量变大。\n（11）不同气候情境条件下，径流变化不同。在保持温度不变的情况下，降在减少10%、保持不变和增加10%的情况下，年平均径流量变化为-10.0%、0和9.3%。而在不同降水量水平下，温度降低1℃和增加1℃相应的引起径流量变化量不同。当气温增大1℃，降水量增加10%时，径流量是增加最大的，为7.7%，当气温降低1℃，降水量减少10%时，径流量减少最大，为-18.7%。\n关键词：疏勒河流域 径流特征 VIC水文模型 冰川径流 冻土效应 气候变化 |
| 英文摘要 | There are mainly inland rivers in the northwest china. The runoff derives from the mountainous area in the upstream of the basin and evapotranspiration mainly occurs in the middle and lower reaches of the river. The quantity and spatial and temporal distribution of the water resource from the upstream plays a crucial role in the economic growth and environment in the downsteam. Especially in these years, global warming has the important effect on the upstream hydrologic process. So the research on the hydrologic process has the science significance and reality significance. However, natural conditions in the headwater of the basin, mountainous area, are very poor and the meteorological observation sites are few, so we cannot study everything with the observation data and the hydrological models offer a good way to study the hydrological process in the basin. In the study, the large scale hydrological model VIC-3L, coupled with glacier model, is used to simulate the hydrologic process in the upstream of the Shule river basin. \n The study area（area, 1.14×104km2）, the upstream of the Shule river basin, lies in the west of the Qilian mountain in the northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. When studied the local climate, I used the meteorological data (from 2008 to 2011) from the local 10m meteorological in Suli and Yuerhong. I analyzed the changing characteristics of runoff with the runoff data (from 1954 to 2010) from Changma hydrological station. In addition, I simulated the hydrologic process with VIC-3L model, which needed daily air temperature( including daily mean air temperature, daily highest air temperature and daily lowest air temperature) and daily mean precipitation which came from the six state meteorological sites and APHRO-V1003R1 data base respectively. The study calibrated the model by runoff data from 1970 to 1979 and verified it using the data from 1980 to 2006. Then the study analyzed the effect of the climate change on the runoff by means of designing the climate situation. The results are as follows: \n (1)Annual mean air temperature is -4℃ in Suli and daily mean air temperature appear periodic change as well as daily amplitude of air temperature. The change curve of monthly mean air temperature is like a parabola. The highest air temperature(7.9℃) is in July，while lowest air temperature(7.9℃). Annual mean air temperature is 4.4℃ in Yuerhong. The daily mean air temperature appear periodic change while daily amplitude of air temperature not. The precipitation in Suli is about 380mm and focuses in the season of growth (May-to September) with over 90% of the annual precipitation. However, the precipitation in Yuerhong is much less than that in Suli. Though there was seasonal variation for wind speed in both areas, the trends were opposite. In addition, the relative air humidity in Suli had seasonal variation while it did not in Yuerhong.\n (2) the mean daily discharge during ablation seasons(May to Oct) from 2009 to 2011 was 22.4 m3.s-1。The runoff began to increase in the middle June and decreased sharply in the late September. The month average runoff every year was like a parabolic curve, but the peaks were different. Analyzing the mean daily air temperature, daily precipitation and mean daily discharge, it can be concluded that the change characteristic of runoff were controlled by both temperature and precipitation.\n (3)The monthly runoff from 1954 to 2010 is increasing in Changma. But in different months, the trend is different. In the summer, the increasing trend main occurs after mid 1990s. In the winter and spring, the runoff increased slowly before mid 1990s, but markedly increased after mid 1990s. \n (4)The annual runoff distributed non-uniform with obvious seasonal change. The monthly mean runoff is largest in July (84.14m3.s-1). The runoff in wet season (June-September) is 68.8% of annual runoff. The runoff in the winter is only 8.2%.\n (5) Through annual runoff distribution coefficient Cvy varying from 0.6 to 1.2,it showed that the annual runoff distributed non-uniform. As for Inter decadal variation, the annual runoff distribution tended to uniformity. Then, I used the concentration ratio and concentration period to evaluate which months the runoff focus in and how much. The concentration ratios were over 0.5. It was biggest in 1950s by 0.55, while it was smallest in 2000s by 0.50. The concentration period is July.\n The coefficient of variation of inter annual runoff, Cv, is 0.25, which indicated that the inter annual change was not sharp. The extreme runoff was more than 3.87times the difference. The largest annual runoff (15.98×108m3) occurred in 2002 and the least annual runoff (4.13×108m3) occurred in 1956.\n (6)By calibrating the VIC model, the Nash – Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (R2) which was used to show on which level the modeling monthly runoff matched to the observed data was 0.72 and the error coefficient(Er) which was used to show total precision was 0.13. It suggests that VIC-3L model can be used in the Shule river basin.\n 7) By analyzing the daily and monthly modeling runoff, it can be found that the simulating effect of monthly runoff was better than daily runoff. That is because the simulating effect will decrease with the time resolution increasing,\n (8) Compared with observed runoff data, the modeling runoff is 13% less than it. But the change trend is consistent.\n 9) The energy balance method is better than degree-day factor method for day time-scale and month time-scale. The Nash – Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (R2) with the energy balance method is bigger than that with degree-day factor method and the error coefficient(Er) is with the energy balance method less than that with degree-day factor method. However, the two method are both better than the method without glacier melting. The simulated glacier melting runoff with the energy balance method was 21% of the total simulated runoff, while the simulated glacier melting runoff with degree-day factor method was 11% of the total simulated runoff.\n (10) By comparing the different simulation result with/without frozen soil algorithm, the great influences on the water cycle of frozen soil were proved. The base flow in winter became less and the peak runoff in summer became larger due to frozen soil.\n (11) The runoff changed in the different designed climate situations compared with the real climate situation. On the one hand, when the air temperature remained unchanged, if precipitation reduced 10%, kept unchanged and increased 10%, the runoff would reduce 10%, keep invariant and increased 9.3% respectively. On the other hand, when precipitation kept unchanged, if air temperature rose 1℃ or dropped 1℃, the changed amplitudes of the runoff were different. When air temperature rose 1℃, the runoff increased 7.7%, however, the runoff would descended 18.7% when air temperature dropped 1℃.\n Keywords: Shule river basin; characteristics of runoff; Macro-scale hydrological model VIC; glacier runoff; frozen soil effect; climate change |
| 中文关键词 | 疏勒河流域 ; 径流特征 ; VIC水文模型 ; 冰川径流 ; 冻土效应 ; 气候变化 |
| 英文关键词 | Shule river basin characteristics of runoff Macro-scale hydrological model VIC glacier runoff frozen soil effect climate change |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287099 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 高明杰. 疏勒河上游流域山区水文过程分析及模拟研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2012. |
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