Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 基于HIMS的黑河流域上游分布式水文模型研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Study on Distributed Hydrological Model of the Upstream of Heihe River Based on HIMS |
| 吴梦莹 | |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 王中根 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 黑河流域是西北内陆干旱区第二大内陆河流域，受全球气候变化、人类活动的影响，该流域面临着一系列与水相关的生态环境问题，这些问题成为制约流域经济社会可持续发展的瓶颈。本文在客观认识黑河流域水循环特性的基础上，基于团队自主知识产权的HIMS系统平台，构建适应黑河上游的HIMS模型，并基于此量化分析未来降水和气温变化对出山口径流的影响，为黑河流域综合管理提供参考。论文主要结论如下：\n1. 黑河流域水循环要素的特性：近50年来，黑河流域气温呈上升趋势，在1989年存在显著突变点，空间上上游增温最显著；降水呈波动性增加趋势，在1975年存在显著突变点，空间上上游降水增加最明显且水量最为稳定；受气候变化的影响，莺落峡站出山径流呈上升趋势；受中游水资源利用量迅速增加的影响，正义峡站径流呈减少趋势。\n2. 构建的黑河上游HIMS模型模拟效果好： 基于HIMS系统，构建黑河上游分布式水文模型，取得了较高的模拟与验证精度，日过程模型率定期和验证期效率系数均达0.80，月过程模型率定期和验证期效率系数均高达0.97。马斯京根模型参数C1、C2敏感性大，对模拟结果影响较大。参数组合不确定性大，异参同效现象显著。HIMS模拟结果不确定性较小，模拟效果好。\n3. 不同水文单元划分方法下的HIMS模型各具特点： 基于自然子流域的HIMS模型模拟精度较基于网格的要高，且对枯季径流模拟更准确；然而，基于网格的HIMS模型的率定参数稳定性好，更具有可靠性。\n4.基于构建的黑河上游HIMS模型，分析了气候变化对研究区水循环的影响：(a)气温升高和降水量减少都会减少年径流量；(b)降水不变情景下，气温降低会加剧径流年内分配不均的程度；而在气温不变的情景下，月径流量均随降水增加而增加，但径流量年内分配格局未受到降水变化的显著影响；(c)对年径流量最不利的气候变化情景是气温升高2℃，降水减少20%；最有利的情景是气温降低1℃，降水增加20%；(d)径流量年际变化和年内分配的分析研究表明，最有利于中游水资源开发利用的气候变化情景是气温增加1℃，降水增加20%。 |
| 英文摘要 | Heihe River Basin, which is the second largest inland basin in northwest arid region, is suffering a series of severe water-related environmental problems because of drought, water shortage , global climate change , human activities etc. These problems are becoming constraint on economic and social sustainable development. Under the objective cognition of the characteristics of water cycle in Heihe River Basin and the platform of simulation system (HIMS) which possess team independent intellectual property rights, we intend to construct a simulation system (HIMS) which is suitable for the upper Heihe River Based on this model, we can quantitatively analyse the impact of future precipitation and temperature change on mountain pass runoff change, providing a hydrological simulation reference for the comprehensive management of Heihe River Basin. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:\n1. Characteristics of the elements of water cycle in Heihe River Basin . For nearly 50 years, the temperature of Heihe River Basin is rising, especially in the upstream area, and there is a significant catastrophe point in 1989; The amount of precipitation increases in volatility, especially in the upstream area which is the most notable and stable, and a significant catastrophe point appears in 1975. Affected by climate change, the amount of mountain pass runoff in Ying luo gorge station is on the rise; Affected by the rapid increasing use of water resources in middle stream areas, the amount of runoff in ZhengYi gorge station is decreasing.\n2. The simulating effect of the constructed HIMS modle which concerns the upstream of Heihe River is relatively excellent. The distributed hydrological model of the upper Heihe River which is based on the HIMS system of team independent research achievs high accuracy on simulation and verification. Both calibration and validation period efficiency coefficient of day process model reach 0.80; both calibration and validation period efficiency coefficient of month process model reach as high as 0.97. The simulation result is sensitive to and largely influenced by parameter C1 and C2 used in Muskingum method. The equifinality effect is obvious as a result of the relatively big uncertainty of differect parameter combinations. Analyses show that the simulation result of HIMS is resaonably well.\n3.HIMS models with different hydrological units classification method have different characteristics: The HIMS model which is based on natural subbasin has a higher simulating accuracy than that of gridding, and the simulation to dry season runoff is more accurate.\n4. Based on the constructed HIMS system of upstream of Heihe river, the influence of climate change on water cycle in the study area is analysed. (a) Climate warming and precipitation decrease will reduce annual runoff; (b) If the amount of precipitation is constant, the temperature decrease will exacerbate the situation of unequal distribution of runoff in one year. If the temperature is constant, the monthly runoff will increase with the increase of precipitation amount. But precipitation has little influence on distribution pattern of runoff of one year. (c) When temperatures rises 2℃, precipitation reduces 20%, and that is the most unfavourable condition to annual runoff. The most advantageous situation is that temperatures falls 2℃, precipitation increases 20%. (d) After the analysis on interannual change and distribution of annual runoff within a year, we reach a conclusion: The most beneficial condition for the development and utilization of midstream water resources is that temperature increases 2℃, and precipitation increases 20%. |
| 中文关键词 | HIMS模型 ; 水循环 ; 气候变化 ; 黑河上游 |
| 英文关键词 | HIMS model water cycle climatic change upstream of Heihe River |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287058 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 吴梦莹. 基于HIMS的黑河流域上游分布式水文模型研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2012. |
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