Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 气候变化对中国典型地区小麦产量构成和水分利用的影响 | |
| 其他题名 | Effect of Climate Change on wheat yield components and water use in Typical Regions of China |
| 杨晓亚 | |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 于强 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 在气候变化背景下，研究气象因素（太阳辐射、温度和降雨）的变化对小麦产量构成和水分利用的影响对保证我国粮食安全及提高农业资源利用效率均有重要意义。本文利用试验资料研究了中国小麦主产区产量和产量构成因素的关系，及其与相应发育阶段气象因素的关系；并进一步应用农业系统模型模拟分析了我国典型地区气候变化（太阳辐射、温度、降雨量变化）对小麦产量和水分利用的影响。主要结论为：\n 1. 利用两年的“中国冬小麦新品种动态”中接近70个站点的小麦栽培资料，分析了中国冬小麦4个主产区产量和产量构成因素的关系，并结合每个站点的气象资料，分析小麦产量和产量构成因素的变化与气象因素的关系。相关和通径分析结果表明穗数对产量的影响最大，千粒重次之，穗粒数对产量的影响较小。相关和逐步回归分析结果表明，产量与出苗至抽穗和抽穗至成熟阶段的日照时数均为正相关且相关系数最大，穗数与出苗至抽穗阶段的最低温度显著负相关与日照时数显著正相关，穗粒数与出苗至抽穗阶段的最低温度显著正相关，千粒重与抽穗至成熟阶段的最高温度显著正相关。产量和穗数分别与生育期和出苗至抽穗期积温正相关，穗粒数和千粒重与其形成阶段积温无显著相关关系。在本文的研究区域，黄淮海区域为高产并且稳产的区域，此区域三个产量构成因素对产量的贡献相同即对产量同等重要。在产量较低的区域，穗数与产量的相关性最高，维持较高的穗数对产量的提高很重要。\n 2. 利用研究站点连续3年的田间试验资料验证了农业生产系统模型APSIM的适用性，并利用过去50年左右的气候资料模拟分析了气候变化对中国小麦潜在产量和水分利用的影响，结论分别为：\n （1）分别在乌兰乌苏、莎车和东坎试验站验证了APSIM模型的适用性，模型能够较好的反应新疆绿洲地区三个站点的小麦叶面积指数和地上生物量的增长动态。可以应用该模型分析新疆绿洲地区气候变化对作物生产的影响。但是，由于模型对新疆地区春季增温快，光照充足的气候条件敏感性不足，模型低估了返青后叶面积指数和地上生物量的增长，造成作物叶面积指数和生物量模拟值较实测值偏低。\n （2）乌兰乌苏和莎车试验站，1955-2006年间太阳辐射下降和温度升高导致了冬小麦模拟生育期缩短和蒸散量显著下降，乌兰乌苏试验站小麦模拟产量没有明显变化，莎车试验站小麦模拟产量显著下降。东坎试验站1955-2006年太阳辐射无变化趋势，最低温度升高；其春小麦产量、生育期和蒸散量的模拟值均无明显变化趋势。乌兰乌苏和莎车试验站产量和蒸散量模拟值与气象因素相关分析结果表明，产量和蒸散量的模拟值与太阳辐射为显著正相关关系，水分利用效率与太阳辐射为显著负相关关系，并且与其他气象因素相比相关系数绝对值最高。同时聚类分析结果表明，太阳辐射与实测蒸散量的关系最密切。\n （3）分别在栾城、盐亭和乌兰乌苏验证了APSIM模型的适用性，并分别应用于北京/济南、成都和乌鲁木齐的过去48年气候变化对小麦产量和水分利用的影响。北京、济南、成都和乌鲁木齐1961-2009年间小麦生长季的太阳辐射下降趋势分别为-0.061、-0.042、-0.059和-0.026 MJ m-2 a-1，最低温度的上升趋势分别为0.08、0.038、0.034和0.047 °C a-1。模拟结果表明过去48年北京和济南的小麦模拟产量无明显变化趋势，成都的模拟产量显著下降。太阳辐射的变化解释了成都产量变化的73.6%。由于最低温度和降雨量的增加，过去48年乌鲁木齐的模拟产量显著增加。4个试点蒸散量模拟值均随着太阳辐射的降低而下降。北京、济南和乌鲁木齐的水分利用效率增加，成都无明显变化。总之，在太阳辐射水平较高的地区，伴随着温度增加的太阳辐射的下降对产量模拟值无显著影响并提高水分利用效率，在太阳辐射水平较低的地区太阳辐射降低使籽粒产量显著下降。\n （4）利用APSIM模型模拟研究了北京和成都过去49年太阳辐射变化和温度升高单个气象因素变化对小麦产量和水分利用的影响。模拟结果表明辐射水平较低的成都小麦产量对太阳辐射下降更敏感，随着太阳辐射的降低其下降比例显著高于北京。成都温度的升高导致的小麦产量和蒸散量下降均高于北京，表明温度水平较高的地区小麦生产对升温的变化更敏感。太阳辐射降低10%引起的小麦产量和蒸散量下降量均高于温度增加1 °C。总之，太阳辐射的下降和温度的升高对太阳辐射水平较低并且温度较高的成都地区的小麦生产的负面影响大于北京地区。 |
| 英文摘要 | Under the condition of climate change, the research on climate elements (solar radiation, temperature and rainfall) variability/change effects on wheat yield formation and water use always is crucial for improving food security and agricultural resources use efficiency. This study researched on the relationship between yield and yield components, and the relationship with climate elements of corresponding developmental phases; and the impact of climate change (including solar radiation, temperature and rainfall changes) on wheat yield and water use was researched by using agriculture system model in typical regions of China. Main conclusions are listed as follows:\n 1. Two years of data from the Chinese Variety Evaluation Program with nearly 70 experimental sites were used to explore the relationship between grain yield and the three yield components, and which were combined with climate data of each site to analyze the relationship among yield, yield components and climate elements. Path coefficient analysis indicated that across regions spike number per m-2 (SN) had a slightly greater direct effect on grain yield than 1000-kernel weight (KW), and kernel number per spike (KN) had little effect on grain yield. Correlation and stepwise regression results indicated that yield was most positively related to average sunshine duration from emergence to heading and from heading to maturity. Sunshine duration and maximum daily temperature from emergence to heading mainly determined SN, minimum daily temperature from emergence to heading mainly determined KN, and maximum daily temperature from heading to maturity mainly determined KW. Yield and SN were positively related with thermal time during wheat growth duration and between emergence to heading respectively. KN and KW had no relationship with thermal time of corresponding growth stages. High production environments with consistent yield are those with lower temperatures, greater sunshine duration, and all yield components equally contribute to yield. However, maintaining high SN is important under yield-limiting conditions.\n 2. Three years experimental data were used to validate the farming systems model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) at each research site. Then the validated APSIM was used to evaluate past 50 years climate variability/change effects on potential crop yield, evapotranspiration (ET), and water use efficiency of wheat in China. Main conclusions are listed as follows:\n (1) APSIM model was validated at Wulanwushu, Shache and Dongkan station respectively. The results showed that the model was able to simulate the dynamics of wheat growth, biomass and yield, and it could be used for analysis the climate change effects on wheat production. The model tended to underestimate winter wheat leaf area index (LAI) and biomass when temperature increase in spring probably because the model couldn’t sensitively reflect the impact of fast temperature and solar radiation increases on the biomass accumulation process of winter wheat in Xinjiang. \n (2) Simulated wheat growth duration and envapotranspiration (ET) significantly decreased probably due to solar radiation decrease and temperature increase from 1955 to 2006 at Wulanwushu and Shache station. Simulated wheat yield had no significant change at Wulanwushu station, while simulate yield significantly decreased at Shache station. Solar radiation had no changes trend and temperature increase from 1955 to 2006 at Dongkan station, simulated spring wheat growth duration, wheat yield and ET had no changes trend. Correlation analysis among simulated yield, ET, water use efficiency (WUE) and climate elements showed that solar radiation was positively related with yield and ET, and which was negatively related with WUE. Cluster analysis showed that the variations of ET were mainly determined by solar radiation, nothing to do with the changes in temperature. \n (3) APSIM model was validated at Luancheng, Yanting and Wulanwushu respecvtively, and the validated model was used to research the effects of climate change on wheat yield and water use during past 48 years at Beijing/Jinan, Chengdu and Urumqi respectively. Solar radiation during the wheat season declined by -0.061, -0.042, -0.059 and -0.026 MJ m-2 a-1 at Beijing, Jinan, Chengdu and Urumqi, and minimum temperature increased by 0.08, 0.038, 0.034 and 0.047 °C a-1 respectively. Simulated results showed that wheat yield had no significant change at Beijing and Jinan during past 48 years. Simulated yield significantly decreased at Chengdu station. Variation of solar radiation explained 73.6% of changes in grain yield at Chengdu. Simulated grain yields in the Urumqi region increased during the last decades due to increasing minimum temperature and rainfall. Simulated evapotranspiration declined with the decline of solar radiation at these four stations. Water use efficiency increased at Beijing and Urumqi, which had no significant change at Chengdu. Declining solar radiation under high level would have no effect on wheat yield and improve water use efficiency, which under low level of solar radiation would significantly decrease grain yield.\n (4) We researched the effects of solar radiation changes and temperature increase on wheat yield and water use respectively at Beijing and Chengdu during past nearly 50 years by using APSIM model. Solar radiation reduction and temperature increase would induce simulated yield and ET decrease. Simulated results showed that when solar radiation decreases yield of Chengdu which had low solar radiation decreased more than Beijing. Wheat yield of Chengdu is more sensitive to the solar radiation reduction. Reduction of simulated yield and ET at Chengdu were greater than Beijing when temperature increase, which showed that wheat growth at Chengdu were more sensitive to temperature increase than Beijing. The reduction of simulated wheat yield and ET which induced by solar radiation reduction 10% were higher than which induced by temperature increase 1 °C. Solar radiation and temperature changes had different effects on wheat yield and water use under different climate conditions. Wheat production of Chengdu was more sensitive for solar radiation reduction and temperature increase than Beijing. |
| 中文关键词 | 小麦产量 ; 产量构成因素 ; 水分利用 ; 气候变化 ; APSIM |
| 英文关键词 | wheat yield yield components water use climate change APSIM |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 生态学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287054 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 杨晓亚. 气候变化对中国典型地区小麦产量构成和水分利用的影响[D]. 中国科学院大学,2012. |
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