Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 东北植物物候对气候变化的响应研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Study on the responses of plant phenology to climatic change in northeast China |
| 李荣平 | |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 周广胜 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 植物物候及其准确模拟不仅有助于增进植被对气候变化响应的理解，而且对准确模拟气候－植被间的物质与能量交换、植被生产力与全球碳收支具有重要意义。目前，关于植物物候的模拟研究主要集中在东北湿润区木本植物的春季物候，且仅涉及气温因子。本论文拟以东北湿润、半湿润和半干旱地区主要木本、草原植物和主要农作物为研究对象，采用回归分析、空间分析和模拟退火等方法，研究近25年来东北植物的春季物候和秋季物候和主要作物的发育期的变化特征；分析东北木本植物物候的空间变化；阐明东北植物的物候和作物发育期对气温和降水变化的响应；分析和发展东北植物春季物候模型和秋季物候和作物发育期模型，为准确模拟东北植物物候和作物发育期提供参考，并探讨未来气候情景下东北植物的物候变化。主要结果如下：\n(1) 19802005年间东北木本植物的展叶初期提前，提前速率为0.23 d•a-1；枯黄初期推后，推后速率为0.19 d•a-1；生长季显著延长，平均延长达0.30 d•a-1。19802006年期间，锡林浩特和鄂温克两个地区羊草和针茅的返青期均明显推后，分别为5.566.93 d•10a-1和4.678.36 d•10a-1；胡硕地区披碱草和冰草的返青期亦推后，分别为1.44 d•10a-1和8.09 d•10a-1。东北草原植物的返青期和枯黄期均受气温和降水的影响，其中，降水的影响最大。1980-2008年，东北作物发育期中的生殖期显著延长，玉米、水稻和大豆的生殖发育期分别延长幅度为0.32 d•a-1，0.09 d•a-1和0.18 d•a-1；出苗时间显著缩短，玉米、水稻和大豆的出苗期分别缩短幅度为0.09 d•a-1，0.04 d•a-1和0.11 d•a-1。\n(2) 东北木本植物展叶初期与2、3、4月的气温呈显著负相关，其中4月气温对植物展叶提前的影响最大，展叶平均提前趋势为2.35 d•°C-1；2月气温的影响最小，平均趋势为1.18 d•°C-1。在半湿润地区，羊草和针茅的返青期主要受气温影响，在半干旱区的牧草返青期主要受返青期前期降水影响。作物发育期主要受气温的影响，其中出苗期和生殖生育期受气温的显著影响，气温升高缩短生殖发育期。\n(3) 东北木本植物的展叶期主要受温度的影响，可采用基于温度的物候模型模拟，其中Sequential model的模拟效果最好，但基于温度的物候模型对草原植物的返青期的模拟效果较差；本研究建立了基于水热驱动的春季物候（木本植物展叶期和草原植物返青期）模型，新模型能够较好地模拟东北植物春季物候。耦合日照时数和负积温模型能够在一定程度上对植物枯黄期进行模拟，在四个发育期模型中，模拟玉米和水稻生育期后期的最优模型为高亮之模型(GM)，而模拟玉米和大豆的生育期前期最优模型为沈国权模型(GM)和积温模型(JM)。\n(4) 未来(20002100年)气候变化情景下，东北植物的展叶期将平均提前20 d，木本植物的枯黄期将平均推后13 d，木本植物的生长季平均延长32 d。玉米、水稻和大豆生育期分别平均缩短29、23和18 d。 |
| 英文摘要 | In order to understand the responses of vegetation to climatic change and to improve the simulation accuracy for material and energy exchanges between the atmosphere and vegetation, it is significantly important to explore plant phenology and its accurate simulation. Furthermore, the simulation of plant phenology is also helpful to accurately assess the vegetation productivity and global terrestrial carbon budget. Currently, the study on phenological simulation is focused on the spring phenology of woody plants in temperate humid areas, and the model only involves the effects of air temperature. In this dissertation, by means of regression analysis, spatial analysis and simulated annealing, we explored the variations of spring and autumn phenology for woody and grassland plants, and growing periods for main crops in humid, semi-humid and semi-arid areas during recent 25 years in Northeast China. We also analyzed the spatial variation of phenology for woody plants, and explained the responses of phenology for main plant species and growing periods for crops to the changes in temperature and precipitation. Finally, spring and autumn phenology models of plants and growing period model of crops were developed to accurately simulate plant phenology and growth period of crops. Based on those models, the responses of plant phenology to climatic change in the future were discussed. The main results were given as follows:\n(1) During 1980-2005, the beginning date of leaf unfold for woody plants brought forward with the rate of 0.23 d•a-1, the beginning date of leaf color significantly postponed with the rate of 0.19 d•a-1, and the growing season was significantly prolonged with 0.30 d•a-1 in Northeast China. During 1980-2006, Leymus chinensis and Stipa significantly delayed turning green with the trends of 5.56-6.93 d•10a-1 and 4.67-8.36 d•10a-1 respectively in Xilinhot and Ewenke. Elymus dahuricus and Agropyron cristatum delayed turning green with the trends of 1.44 d•10a-1 and 8.09 d•10a-1 respectively in Hushuo. Generally, both air temperature and precipitation played critical roles in the turning green and leaf color of steppe plants. During 1980-2008, the reproductive period of corn, rice, and soybeans were significantly prolonged with 0.32 d•a-1，0.09 d•a-1, and 0.18 d•a-1 respectively in northeast China. However, the emergence time of corn, rice, and soybeans were significantly shortened with 0.09 d•a-1，0.04 d•a-1, and 0.11 d•a-1 respectively.\n(2) The beginning date of leaf unfold for woody plants was significantly negatively correlated with air temperature of February, March and April in Northeast China. Furthermore, air temperature of April and February played the greatest and the smallest roles in the advance of leaf unfold, respectively. The time of leaf unfold date moved up at the average rate of 2.35 d•°C-1 and 1.18 d•°C-1 in April and February, respectively. In semi-humid area, the turning green periods of L. chinensis and Stipa were mainly affected by air temperature. However, in semi-arid area, precipitation played a critical in the turning green period of steppe plants. For crops in Northeast China, both seedling stage and reproductive period were significantly affected by air temperature, i.e., the reproductive period was shortened due to the rising temperature.\n(3) Leaf unfold of woody plants was mainly affected by temperature, so the phonology could be simulated by temperature phenology model, of which Sequential model was the best for simulation. However, the temperature phenology model was less effective for simulating the spring phenology of steppe plants. Combining both accumulated temperature model and water model, a new spring phenology model was developed in this study to accurately simulate the spring phenology of both steppe and woody species. For simulating the leaf color turning of plants, the model combining sunshine hours and negative accumulated temperature was more effective. The model of Gao (GM) was much more suitable to simulate the late growing periods of corn and rice. However, the early growth periods of corn and soybeans were well simulated with the model of Gao (GM) and accumulated temperature model (JM).\n(4) Under the climatic change scenarios (2000-2100), it was predicted that the leaf unfold of plants tended to advance about 20 days by the hydrothermal phenology model, the leaf color date of woody species delayed about 13 days by accumulated temperature model, and the growing season length of woody species extended about 32 days. The growth periods of crops (corn, rice and soybeans) were averagely shortened 29 days, 23 days, and 18 days, respectively. |
| 中文关键词 | 温带 ; 气候变化 ; 物候模型 ; 草原植物 ; 木本植物 |
| 英文关键词 | Temperate zone Climatic change Phenology model Steppe plant Woody plant |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 生态学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院植物研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/287024 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 李荣平. 东北植物物候对气候变化的响应研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2011. |
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