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| 荒漠化预警模型及其在额济纳三角洲的应用研究 | |
| 刘东琳 | |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 刘蔚 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 中文摘要 | 荒漠化是全球性的环境灾害，是人类生存的最大威胁因素之一，目前全球荒漠化的面积已占整个地球陆地面积的1/4，而且还在不断扩大。因此，在开展荒漠化发生发展机制分析研究的基础上，如何对荒漠化发展的潜在危险性进行预警评价是一项亟待解决的工作。在此背景下，本文研究了荒漠化预警模型，旨在从机理上分析各种荒漠化因子的变化给未来荒漠化的发展趋势可能造成的影响。最后将预警模型应用于黑河流域下游的额济纳三角洲，对该绿洲区荒漠化的发展趋势和潜在危险性进行了分析判断。\n当前预警模型在国内外荒漠化领域的研究还处于起步阶段，本荒漠化预警模型是一项新的尝试。荒漠化从本质上说是土地退化，也就是土地生产潜力的退化。本预警模型应用机制法计算土地生产潜力，即首先依据太阳辐射计算土地的光合生产潜力，然后按土地生产潜力的影响因子计算各影响系数，并从光合生产潜力开始，依次进行“修正”计算，最终得到土地的社会生产潜力。最后通过对未来不同时间尺度上的土地生产潜力与现状进行比较计算和分析，预测区域荒漠化的发展趋势和潜在危险性。\n额济纳三角洲位于黑河的末端，黑河下游的来水是本区唯一的地表水来源。近年来，由于黑河上、中游用水量的增加，导致下游的来水逐年减少，额济纳三角洲的地下水位大幅度下降，因此，本文在该区的荒漠化情景演进计算中将地下水数值计算模型嵌入预警模型，目的是重点分析水资源分配状况对绿洲未来的荒漠化发展可能造成的影响。本文根据黑河进入绿洲的入口—狼心山水文站历年的流量资料，设计了三个来水方案，并通过地下水数值计算模型计算分析了额济纳三角洲地下水的变化趋势，进而预测分析了该绿洲区土地生产潜力的变化趋势，在此基础上对三个方案情景下绿洲荒漠化的发展趋势进行了判断，得出的结论是：额济纳三角洲土地生产潜力的大小很大程度上取决于该区的水分条件，并随着狼心山下泄水量的增大而增大；为使该研究区土地不进一步荒漠化，需保证通过狼心山的水量不低于5.5×108 m3·a-1；若要使生态环境得到很好的恢复和改善，则需持续保证狼心山来水量在7.5×108 m3·a-1左右。 |
| 英文摘要 | Desertification is a global environmental problem and one of the biggest threatening elements to the living of human beings. Desertification landscapes comprise nearly a quarter of the total land surface of the globe. Therefore, on the basis of study about the mechanism of desertification, how to forcast the potential danger of desertification is vey urgent. Under the former condition, desertification model is built in this thesis. The purpose is to analyze potential desertificational danger caused by various factors. Finally the model is used in the desertification problem of Ejina Oasis of Heihe River Basin.\nForcasting model in study about desertification has not been effectively used by far. Desertification forcasting model of Ejina Oasis is an innovative attempt. The forcasting model calculates the land productive capability (LPC) through a mechanical method. First it calculates the photosynthetic productive capability of the land (LPPC) on the basis of the quantity of solar radiation. Then it gets the value of the indexes according to the influencing factors. Afterwards it starts “degraded” calculation from the LPPC. Finally it gains the value of the LPC. Finally comparison between the future LPC and the nowadays LPC is executed, conclusion about the trend and the potential danger of desertification is made.\nEjina Oasis is at the bottom of Heihe River. Water from downstream of Heihe River is the only surface water resource of it. In recent years, water to downstream is decreasing year after year and the water-table of Ejina Oasis has been lowered by a large margin due to increase of water consumption of upstream and midstream of Heihe River. Under the former condition, in the calculation of the desertification evolvement of Ejina Oasis, groundwater model is embedded in desertification forcasting model in this thesis. The purpose is to analyze propable change of the LPC of Ejina Oasis caused by water resource distribution. In this thesis possible change of the water-table of Ejina Oasis is calculated using groundwater model under the condition of three water distribution plans of Langxinshan hydrological station, and then the trend of the LPC of the oasis and desertification danger of the plans are estimated. The conclusions are that: the land productive capability of Ejina Oasis widely relies on the water condition and increases with the water quantity of Langxinshan; if further desertification doesn’t occur in Ejina Oasis, there must be 5.0×108 m3·a-1 water in Langxinshan hydrological station; if ecological environment of Ejina Oasis revives or improves greatly, there must be 7.5×108 m3·a-1 water in it more or less. |
| 中文关键词 | 荒漠化预警模型 ; 额济纳三角洲 ; 土地生产潜力 |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/286840 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 刘东琳. 荒漠化预警模型及其在额济纳三角洲的应用研究[D]. 中国科学院大学,2010. |
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